Two weeks after the onset of travel restrictions, the first signs of the epidemic slowing are showing.

But in the hospital, the situation remains difficult, and the promise of the executive to reopen places of restoration and culture by mid-May seems increasingly difficult, even if the government is looking for solutions. 

In recent days, some indicators have highlighted a drop in the circulation of Covid-19 in France, especially among those under 20.

Observation of the curves shows that dropping out is linked to the start of school holidays.

Another positive point, the incidence rate is falling in most large cities.

But its level remains high, currently at 360 at the national level.

At the hospital, the number of admissions, the number of patients in intensive care and the number of deaths are still not decreasing, while mid-May, the date announced by Emmanuel Macron for the reopening of terraces or places of cultivation, is approaching .

In government, we are looking for solutions to keep the presidential promise. 

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Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Wednesday April 21

"We are almost at the entry level of the second confinement"

Some epidemiologists are openly starting to question the easing of restrictions on May 15.

For the moment, it is very difficult for them to make projections and to anticipate both the impact that the end of the school holidays will have and the start of the school year on April 3. 

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“Today, we have been on an extremely high plateau for several months and every week, we take one or two additional steps,” recalls Dominique Rossi, president of the medical commission for public assistance in Marseille hospitals.

"Our resuscitation numbers are not going to drop anytime soon. I don't see any improvement for 10--15 days, that seems impossible to me."

Adaptation by territory?

With indicators still in the red, will the French be able to have a drink on the terrace from mid-May? "I hope that the meeting will be held", announces, cautious, Marlène Schiappa, Minister Delegate to the Minister of the Interior. For his part, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran is paving the way for a "territory by territory" approach. A new way to slightly change the calendar. "With 33,000 new daily cases and 6,000 people in real life, we are almost at the entry level in the second confinement", we recognize behind the scenes of the Ministry of Health.

Despite the slowdown in the circulation of the virus and vaccination, opening up will necessarily remain difficult in certain areas.

Olivier Véran thus underlines that it can be interesting to start with departments where the virus circulates less, as in Finistère, Gers or even the Pyrénées-Atlantiques.

The objective is thus to show that the executive keeps its schedule.  

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Finally, at the Elysee Palace, where the president is scheduled to speak, we want to stay the course.

"The figures are going in the right direction," said one in the Palais team.

However, there is no question of bringing forward the date of May 15.

The interpretation on "mid-May" still remains in force to avoid shifting once again the date of reopening of bars, restaurants and places of culture.

More than ever, it is still the virus determines the schedule.