After the Covid-19, a green recovery?
In 2021, the recovery will be accompanied by a rebound in CO2 emissions.
INA FASSBENDER AFP / File
Text by: Pauline Gleize Follow
6 mins
On April 22 and 23, US President Joe Biden is organizing his climate summit.
A virtual meeting while the Covid-19 crisis has sometimes been seen as a historic opportunity to build a “world after” that is greener than the one before.
But that hope may well be showered.
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Energy-related CO2 emissions will grow by 4.8% in 2021, according to calculations by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This is the largest increase since 2010, the second largest on record.
What to cancel part of the decline of last year.
For Fatih Birol, the director of the IEA, this is "
a gloomy warning, which shows that the economic recovery after the Covid crisis is to date anything but sustainable for our climate
".
And to warn: "
Unless governments act quickly to start reducing emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.
"
18% of stimulus spending is green
However, the public support plans for the main economies are not frankly praised by analysts. A report from the United Nations Environment Program and the University of Oxford reveals that the recovery is not green enough.
Until the end of 2020, among the 50 largest economies in the world, "
we have identified $ 14.6 trillion in spending in 2020,"
says Brian O'Callaghan, director of the economic recovery project at the University of Oxford , and author of the report.
Only about 2% of this amount corresponds to green expenses. If we only talk about stimulus plans, of these expenditures, only 18% are green. This means that 82% of spending, the vast majority, is not tied to climate goals.
"
Also, green on one side does not preclude gray on the other. Public support for
fossil fuels
, which grew by 5% in 2019 according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, has not disappeared with the crisis. Nathalie Girouard, head of the department dedicated to environmental performance at the OECD, underlines that “
what is allocated to the environment, which will have positive effects, is roughly 336 billion dollars. But it is the same amount
"as the measures"
which would have more or less negative effects.
"
So are all the countries to be accommodated in the same boat? “
In any case,
believes Lucile Dufour of the International Institute for Sustainable Development,
there is not a single country that is currently a champion of green recovery. Unfortunately, all countries have invested more or less large sums to support the fossil fuel industry, to support activities that consume a lot of fossil fuels.
"
But,
" she concedes,
some countries have been cleaner than others.
The report of the UN agency for the environment, for example, gives a good point to Denmark, Finland, Germany and
France
.
► Also to listen: Will the world “after” be worse than the one before?
Unconditional aid
Beyond the quantity, the quality of the aid makes Lucile Dufour tick.
It should be remembered that behind the aid and in particular the emergency mechanisms, there are issues of safeguarding employment.
But the International Institute for Sustainable Development regrets that the envelopes granted to certain polluting sectors were not made conditional on emission reduction targets, for example.
According to the Energy Policy Tracker, since the start of the pandemic, the G20 countries have made commitments amounting to $ 41.5 billion in support for fossil fuels subject to conditions against $ 236.5 billion granted without target. reduction of the impact on the climate.
Awareness
That said, most of the data released in recent weeks is based on the year 2020 and sometimes the very beginning of 2021. Lucile Dufour therefore believes that the situation can still change:
“
We should perhaps distinguish what happened in the first months following the crisis, and support for highly carbon-
intensive
energies, from
a slightly stronger
awareness
now of governments on the need and urgent action to limit the climate crisis.
We see that plans that were extremely oriented towards fossil fuels at the start of the crisis are gradually reorienting themselves towards something greener.
This is the case, for example, in Canada.
"
If Joe Biden's infrastructure plan passes Congress, it could green the US stimulus as well.
►
To read also: Climate: the United States of Joe Biden is back in the game
Nathalie Girouard stresses the importance of taking advantage of this window of opportunity, because "
having so many investments at the same time is an opportunity that will very rarely arise
".
So, the report from the United Nations and the University of Oxford suggests five areas of investment for decision-makers: “
renewable energies, green transport, energy efficiency measures or ecosystem preservation projects,
lists Brian O'Callaghan.
In addition, governments could also add
"green"
characteristics
to more traditional investments.
"
Another important issue in the eyes of Lucile Dufour: that of aid to poor or developing countries to allow a greener recovery everywhere.
Again everything will depend on the manner.
According to the Energy Policy Tracker, nine of the major multilateral development banks have provided fossil fuels with $ 3 billion since the start of the pandemic.
It is still four times less than what went to clean energy projects.
►
To read also: Climate: United States and China ready to "cooperate", a few days before the summit
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