The risk of invasion and military escalation in Ukraine cannot be completely ruled out;

But the show, with which Russia deals with this issue, and the escalation of tension with the United States, suggests that the current developments are not a threat of an imminent war.

Liana Simchuk,

an

academic in politics at the University of Oxford in Britain, mentioned this

in an article on the

American National Interest, saying that the recent Russian reinforcement of 80,000 troops on its western border with Ukraine and in the Crimea peninsula, the situation of society The international community is on high alert, adding that there are widespread concerns about Moscow's intentions and a potential threat of war.

Technically speaking, Moscow and Kiev have been at war since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and supported separatist forces in the eastern regions of Ukraine, Simchuk noted.

The author ruled out any solution to the crisis between the two countries soon.

Given the strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia.

She explained that there are factors that are likely to be excluded for an imminent war, namely:

  • After Joe Biden was elected President of America, a deterioration in relations between Moscow and Washington was to be expected, as escalating hostilities in eastern Ukraine was one of the ways in which Russia is likely to demonstrate its hegemony.

  • There has been an intensification of discussions recently about Ukraine's acceleration of its membership in NATO, although Moscow is firmly opposed to this.

  • In February, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, stepped up his efforts to curb the influence of pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine.

  • Moscow has so far failed to solve the chronic water insecurity problems in Crimea, which it has pledged to address by the summer of 2021, after Kiev cut off the peninsula's water supply.

    This continues to lead to very high costs for Moscow, as some estimates indicate that the occupation of Crimea has cost Russia about $ 23 billion over the past five years.

    Therefore, the recent military buildup may be a means of putting pressure on Kiev on this issue.

  • Turkey recently increased its support for Ukraine and condemned the Russian aggression during a meeting between the Turkish and Ukrainian presidents on the 12th of this month.

    It was reported that Russia has expressed its concerns about the presence of Turkish drones in Ukraine, and this issue is likely to be especially controversial given that Russian-Turkish relations have been subjected to severe tension, after Turkey provided strong support to Azerbaijan in its war last year with Armenia, Russia viewed this as an interference in its regional sphere of influence.

Invasion is unlikely

Despite this escalation, the author says, the risk of a military confrontation between the two countries or an outright Russian invasion of Ukraine remains relatively unlikely.

for the following reasons:

  • There is a precedent for Russian President Vladimir Putin in using adventures in foreign policy.

    To boost public acceptance rates, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Therefore, its goal in the current escalation may be to boost public acceptance rates before the crucial parliamentary elections in September.

    But the potential economic costs that such an intervention would bring are likely to be very large.

  • This week, Washington imposed new sanctions on Russia, restricting its purchase of new sovereign debt.

    This is important, and shows that US President Joe Biden is ready to back up his speech with action.

  • Any further Russian expansion in Ukrainian territory would have more harmful consequences for the Russian economy, in addition to the possibility of diverting the Russian gas pipeline "Nord Stream 2" to Germany, which would be very costly to the Kremlin.