The regional elections will be postponed for a week, Jean Castex announced to the National Assembly on Tuesday.

They will take place from June 20 to 27.

And in Provence Alpes-Côte d'Azur, according to a survey by the Ifop institute for Europe 1 and La Tribune, the National Rally led by former LR Thierry Mariani would come in first, just ahead of outgoing LR Renaud Muselier. 

In Provence-Alpes Côté d'Azur, the Rassemblement National is taking pride of place.

The Ifop polling institute published on Wednesday for Europe 1 and

La Tribune

a survey on voting intentions in PACA during the next regional elections from June 20 to 27.

A lesson emerges: the National Rally list of Thierry Mariani comes first ahead of the outgoing president Les Républicains, Renaud Muselier by three points in the first round.

"Marine Le Pen is something else"

"If the first round of regional elections were to take place next Sunday, which list would there be the most chance that you would vote?"

This is the question asked by the Ifop polling institute to a sample of 1,000 inhabitants in Provence Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

And the answer is clear: the National Rally.

For right-wing voters, showing a preference for the National Rally is no longer taboo.

The personality of Thierry Mariani convinces: "I could not speak to you about the party. I speak of the man. The ideas, it is something else. Marine Le Pen, it is something else", affirms a Cannoise.

"For me, they have ideas that they defend, they are less radicalized. But afterwards, you have to know how to scratch the varnish when you go to vote. We have often had surprises at the ballot box. People when they are alone, they think, "adds a passer-by from this town in the south-east of France.

A sociological duel

The director of the Opinion and Strategies division at Ifop, Frédéric Dabi, invited to Europe 1 on Wednesday morning, confirms it: it will be a duel between Thierry Mariani and Renaud Muselier.

A possible "revenge" in 2015 for the RN candidate, he adds.

And this duel is first of all sociological.

The two candidates do not bring together the same voters, they do not walk on each other's borders.

"Renaud Muselier is very strong among the elderly. Thierry Mariani, among the young. Renaud Muselier outperforms in the higher categories. Thierry Mariani in the popular categories. Same thing for the level of diploma. We really do not have zones of friction. These are two electorates which overlap for the moment in the first round, "explains Frédéric Dabi.

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So to win hands down, the Republican candidate could consider an alliance with the Macronist list.

It comes to 13% in the first round.

Well below Thierry Mariani (31%) and Renaud Muselier (27%).

And as part of an alliance, the voting intentions in PACA would increase to 34% in the first round for Renaud Muselier, still according to Ifop.

However, this rallying, if negotiated, can be problematic.

He could scare away the "traditional right-wing voters, refusing the alliance with the party of Emmanuel Macron" ... towards the RN, warns Frédéric Dabi.

"There is such a fed up, for sure people will want a change"

Especially since the positions of the National Rally no longer seem to be an obstacle for right-wing voters.

Like this couple of young retirees from Cannes, who, for the moment, leans more for the outgoing candidate.

"The party, I don't care, it's the personality that counts. We will vote Muselier, yes. But afterwards, I have no systematic blocking. There is such a fed up, c sure people will want a change. "

However, the result of this Ifop survey remains to be qualified.

"It is an important score, but it is a score much lower than the 40% that Marion Maréchal Le Pen had succeeded in regional 2015", ensures Frédéric Dabi at the microphone of Europe 1. And for some southerners loyal to the Republicans , neither the National Rally nor the conservative remarks of the right would succeed in convincing them.

Quite the contrary.

"We were LR at the base. And now, me, the LR who takes over towards all these people who are all the same very to the right, who still speak very lepéniste… It's no!"