The economic conditions of the Sudanese have not changed, as they revolted against the regime of President Omar al-Bashir and removed him from power on April 11, 2019, hoping that their conditions would be fixed after they reached a stifling situation at the time due to the high price and the terrible economic decline.

However, with the advent of the second anniversary of the revolution, the situation appears much worse than it was before the overthrow of the previous regime. Inflation has reached astronomical numbers that have exceeded 300% in the last two months, and the value of the pound has decreased by 7 times, and the almost complete liberalization of the prices of bread, fuel and gas takes people every way.

On the other hand, the foreign exchange crisis continues in the continuous blackout of electricity for periods exceeding 12 hours per day in the residential sector, while the magnitude of the effects on the service and industrial sectors is exacerbating, without the state providing any explanations for this situation, which experts attribute to the lack of foreign cash that enables the government to import Electricity running fuel.

In an attempt to flaunt the Sudanese’s hopes for a reform of the situation, Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok sought in his address to the people on the anniversary of the start of the revolution on the sixth of this April to remind the achievements of his government and how it removed the country last year from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism and thus ended a long phase of the economic blockade and began with it An era in which Sudan's economy is integrated with the world economy, thus opening the way for raising the burden of external debt - more than $ 60 billion - and exempting arrears for international financial institutions.

Waiting for help abroad

However, economic expert Khaled Al-Tijani believes that the transitional government did nothing but follow the same paths as the previous regime, lacking a national vision and waiting for the solutions of others, drawing a comparison between what the Bashir government faced in 2011 when South Sudan seceded, carrying with it 70% of the oil revenues, which represented 50 As a result of the economic blockade, Al-Tijani told Al-Jazeera Net that the Bashir regime rushed towards the Gulf countries and became involved in the Yemen war to obtain aid that it had already obtained, but it did not Solve the economy knot.

"Now the same situation continues in the hands of the transitional government, which relies on foreign money, and in light of the end of the blockade, it is waiting for assistance from international financing institutions, and what is common between the two regimes is dependence on the outside with complete negligence to move Sudanese production sectors, so it was natural for the result to be the same."

But the Prime Minister spoke on April 8th in North Kordofan State, where huge quantities of gum arabic, which is an important resource, are produced, that rapid economic interventions, carrying out reforms and mitigating their effects on citizens are among the most important goals of his government, within the framework of a strategic vision aimed at Building a solid floor for the structural transformation associated with manufacturing.

He explained during his speech at a conference there that the gum Arabic belt is one of the five belts for achieving balanced and equitable development, the rise of the countryside and the opposite migration from urban to the new countryside and productive projects.

Kordofan, to the southwest of Sudan, produces 54% of the country's production, while Darfur produces 20%.

Gum is used in many diverse industries and contributes to the country's gross domestic product. It also contributes to improving the livelihoods of more than 6 million people who live in traditional rain-fed agriculture areas. It is considered a primary source of income for most producers within the gum Arabic belt, as its contribution is 35% of Average annual income of the producers.

Economic conditions rock the conditions of the Sudanese day after day, without solutions on the horizon (Al-Jazeera)

A collision with the people

Journalist Abdullah Rizk is convinced of a deep rupture between the transitional government and the people after the imposition of new fuel increases on the anniversary of the revolution, and he considers them a ridiculous paradox, especially as the authority is aware of the devastating effects of this increase and its impact on the prices of all goods and services.

He added to Al-Jazeera Net, "It is not related to awareness of past experiences and his sermons, as such measures sparked two revolutions that toppled the rule of Nimeiri and the rule of Al-Bashir respectively, but it is also related to not responding to the aspirations of the masses who made change, both times."

He believes that the government's insistence on identifying with the orientations and policies of the Fund and the World Bank may put the government in a state of unavoidable collision with the people.

However, there are those who believe that the government, despite the economic decline, has made great gains by finally returning to the International Financial Club, which guarantees Sudan access to loans from international funds that have been denied for more than two decades, which opens the door to building mega projects in the future.

The heart of the pyramid

However, economic analyst Abdel-Azim Al-Mahl says that Sudan's return to global institutions is only a slow way out of the crisis and does not provide any solutions to people's immediate problems, especially since the World Bank's aid pledges will be used for long-term projects.

The time limit confirms to Al-Jazeera Net that the government's crisis lies in poor planning and management, the inability to devise solutions and the lack of experience, and its priorities differ from the citizen as it focuses its efforts on peace and security issues and armed movements, and the spending on these items is higher, and it is the same pattern of the previous regime leading To degrade and collapse.

Abdullah Rizk believes that openness to the outside world, and other diplomatic gains, will not be a substitute for the urgent demands of citizens, as the grinding high prices and the deterioration of the purchasing power of the local currency push more citizens into poverty, more than it was under the rule of Bashir. It is a sign of government failure, not diminished by the rearrangement of priorities that give external achievements an advanced position.

As a way out of the bottleneck, the deadline says that the transitional government should "turn the pyramid" to stop spending on the security, defense and sovereign sectors and transfer the 80% that was dedicated to these items to education, health and industry, provided that 20% go to these sectors while developing immediate solutions to problems by searching for Formulas of financing by the bot system or otherwise, in addition to restoring the spirit of government institutions, chiefly the Cotton Company and the enterprises of gum, sugar, mining and oilseeds, because they can deal with the foreign exchange problem when they monopolize the sale and purchase of crops and issue them so that the return goes to the Central Bank.

It is clear that the government has relied a lot on the support of Western capitals, which exacerbated the harsh situation after promises made by the leaders of countries to support the transition in Sudan, which Khaled Al-Tijani confirms by saying, "This may have made the government believe that it will actually get real support to the point that the first draft budget expected to obtain More than $ 5 billion in grant from Sudan's friends and expanded spending, but what happened was that the money did not come, and the government was forced to borrow excessively from the central bank and print, and this led to high inflation and the crisis was compounded due to wrong expectations and decisions.

Hamdok confirmed during the gum Arabic conference that tackling economic crises is one of his government's priorities (social networking sites)

My Hell's Fate

Al-Tijani says that the foreign support was conditional on a structural reform of the economy in accordance with the programs of the International Monetary Fund, a process that would liberalize the economy, and this became the only program of the government, and to adhere to the path imposed by Sudan's friends without regard for the great consequences of the move.

Al-Tijani raises a question about what the government has reaped from waiting for foreign aid, and he replies that the result was modest given the results of the Berlin conference held in June 2020, which concluded pledges of $ 1.8 billion as a very small sum, while during the week of the conference another was held to support Syrian refugees in which a pledge was made 7 Billions of dollars.

He also points out that the talk about two billion dollars from the World Bank will not be quickly reflected on the economy, according to the IMF’s statement, which expected the arrival of what is known as the end point - the last stage of debt treatment - by June 2024.

The economic expert believes that the real and most dangerous challenge to stability in Sudan is the economic situation, and despite this, government leaders stand as bystanders and those who hold the decision do not give the issue the attention it deserves, as the situation required all the authority to rise up to deal with it, but they are busy distributing positions, according to Al-Tijani.

He added, "Unfortunately, the cause of the killing of the transitional period will be the economy just as it was the cause of the killing of the former regime as a result of negligence and failure to deal with it to its extent, and I do not think that matters will be corrected in light of the current data, many countries have no resources, but they have risen thanks to the will and wise leadership, which is what Sudan lacks." Currently".

Likewise, Abdullah Rizk goes on citing the speech of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, describing his country, which suffers from similar economic and political crises, that Lebanon is going to hell, and adds, "Likewise, Sudan is stepping in the same direction, under the leadership of the current economic team, and its options clashing with The people and their legitimate aspirations. "