(China Focus Face to Face) How to achieve the 2035 long-term goal?
China News Service, Beijing, April 9th, title: How to achieve the 2035 long-term goal?
——Interview with Lin Yifu, Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University
China News Agency reporter Xia Bin
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outline of long-term goals for 2035 have been officially released. This magnificent blueprint for describing the future has opened a new journey for China to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
Per capita GDP has reached the level of moderately developed countries, the middle-income group has expanded significantly, and common prosperity has achieved more obvious substantive progress... How to achieve this series of goals for 2035?
Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University and honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face-to-face" to give an authoritative interpretation of this.
Excerpts from the interview are as follows:
China News Service: China has proposed that by 2035, the per capita GDP should reach the level of a moderately developed country. What level do you think China's economic development should maintain in the next 15 years to achieve this goal?
Lin Yifu: When the
General Secretary made recommendations on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal, he had an idea that by 2035, our GDP scale or urban and rural per capita income level should be doubled on the basis of 2020.
In 2020, our per capita GDP will be about 11,500 US dollars, doubled it will be 23,000 US dollars.
This level is about US$10,000 higher than the minimum threshold of US$12,535 for high-income countries. It can basically be said to be the level of a moderately developed country.
Achieving such a goal requires us to achieve an average annual economic growth rate of 4.7% during the 15-year period from 2021 to 2035.
As long as we work hard, I think this goal is completely possible.
China News Service: In 2035, China has also proposed a goal called the significant expansion of middle-income groups. In your opinion, how much more middle-income groups must increase to meet the requirement of “significant expansion”? How should we achieve such a goal?
Lin Yifu:
We actually have the world's largest middle-income group, about 400 million people.
If we talk about doubling our per capita GDP by 2035, the middle-income group will probably also double to about 800 million people, which is currently the largest in the world, and of course it will still be the world's middle-income group in the future. The largest country.
To achieve this goal, the most important thing is to increase the average income level, and when the income level rises, it is necessary to rely on the increase in labor productivity to create more and higher-income employment opportunities.
Therefore, in general, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to continuously create employment opportunities with higher and higher levels of labor productivity in the process of economic development.
If such employment opportunities increase (get) more, more families will enter the middle-income group. Therefore, the most important thing is to rely on economic development, or to rely on continuous technological innovation and continuous industrial upgrading to achieve the goal of economic growth. , And the goal of achieving a significant increase in the middle-income group.
Lin Yifu accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face".
Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao
China News Agency reporter: Do you think China can overcome the "middle income trap"? why?
Lin Yifu:
According to current international standards, as long as a country's per capita GNI (Gross National Income) exceeds US$12,535, it will enter a high-income country from a middle-income country, and of course it will get rid of the middle-income trap.
Actually (whether it can overcome the middle-income trap) is measured by income level. As I mentioned earlier, our (per capita GDP) is about 11,500 US dollars. It shouldn’t be difficult to add another 1,000 US dollars. I believe that (China) should be able to cross the threshold of entering high income from middle income around 2025.
And if it is crossed, this will be a very important milestone in the history of human economics.
Because now the world’s population living in high-income countries accounts for 16% and 17% of the world’s total population, and China’s population accounts for more than 18% of the world’s population, so when China becomes a high-income country, the world lives in a high-income country The population can double, which will be a very important milestone.
Of course, it depends on the increase of income level. The increase of income level must depend on the increase of labor productivity. The increase of labor productivity requires continuous technological innovation and continuous industrial upgrading. The reason is very simple, but how to follow the reason The transformation of theory into actual economic development requires the efforts of all parties.
This effort is very important in two institutional arrangements, one is an "effective market" and the other is a "promising government". Both the market and the government's "two hands" must be used well at the same time.
China's ability to cross the past will also bring confidence to other countries.
China News Agency reporter: You have been studying comparative advantages for a long time. China has been reforming and opening for more than 40 years. How do you think China's comparative advantages have changed?
Lin Yifu:
Comparative advantage is always comparative, and there will always be.
At the beginning of the reform and opening up, we had many people and few capital. At that time, our comparative advantage was that labor prices were cheap. Therefore, we basically developed labor-intensive industries in the early years, and many of them were processing industries.
With more than 40 years of development, our per capita GDP went from US$156 in 1978 to more than US$10,000 now.
Capital has gradually changed from relative shortage to relative abundance, and labor has changed from relative abundance to relative shortage. In this process (China's) education level has also been continuously improved, so our comparative advantage will gradually become more capital and technology intensive. Industry.
The future development will of course be to develop more capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, because that will be our new comparative advantage.
How to develop such an industry?
Likewise, an effective market and a promising government "two hands" work together.
Lin Yifu accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face".
Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao
Reporter from China News Service: You mentioned earlier that before 2030, China has an economic growth potential of about 8%, but we now see that such a number of growth has not been achieved in recent years. What factors do you think are hindering China’s economy? Full potential?
Lin Yifu:
Potential is a technological possibility. It is viewed from the supply side. To make it a reality depends on the demand side.
Since the 2008 international financial crisis, developed countries have not recovered, because before 2008, the average annual growth rate of developed countries was between 3% and 3.5%, but since 2008, the average growth rate of developed countries is the best It is about 2% in the United States, 1% in European countries, and basically 1% in Japan.
If calculated according to the market exchange rate, these developed countries account for nearly half of the world's economy, and that half of the market develops slowly and the demand side is insufficient.
At the same time, in the process of our development, we are not only for the speed of development, we also hope to solve the environmental problem, solve the problem of regional income gap, etc., which means that we have such a development potential, and we also need to look at the reality of the domestic and international markets. situation.
In this situation, there is an advantage in the (actual) development speed below the possible potential, which allows us to have a relatively large room for maneuver.
So there is such a potential, which can provide us with a relatively high development possibility. At the same time, in the actual development process, we must also make appropriate adjustments according to international and domestic conditions.
China News Agency reporter: From the "14th Five-Year Plan" to 2035, China has put forward requirements for common prosperity. How do you think we should understand the connotation of common prosperity in the new stage of development?
Lin Yifu:
Common prosperity is the hope that in the process of development, everyone’s income and everyone’s living standards will continue to improve. As mentioned earlier, the proportion of middle-income groups will continue to expand, and not only will their income levels increase, but the quality of life will also continue to improve. Only then can we meet people's expectations for a better life.
In this process, I think the important thing is to develop first. To develop, we must continue to innovate in technology and upgrade the industry.
In the process of upgrading the technological innovation industry, we must follow the comparative advantages, according to what you have and what you can do, and make what you can do well and become bigger and stronger.
We also know that in a country as big as China, there are gaps between urban and rural areas, as well as gaps between regions. The government should also provide necessary assistance to the relatively backward regions to eliminate them in terms of public services and public infrastructure. The gap between urban and rural areas and the gap between regions should be eliminated.
During this process, not only can everyone's income level be improved, but the number of people entering the middle-income group will continue to increase. What is important is that everyone's quality of life can be continuously improved.
China News Agency reporter: This year, we also proposed a comprehensive strategy for rural revitalization. What do you think this means for common prosperity?
Lin Yifu: In the
same way, the income level of people (living) in the countryside must continue to increase. If the income level of people in the countryside must continue to increase, there must be industries that can continuously increase labor productivity and income. Only on such an industrial basis can the income level of rural areas be continuously improved and the gap with urban income levels can be reduced.
To allow the development of rural industries, the infrastructure must also be continuously improved, so that its products can enter the market, and at the same time, rural life must be made more convenient. Public services should also have a level of continuous improvement and narrowing the gap with the city. .
At the same time, we must protect the cultural environment and improve the governance of the environment in rural areas. This is also the content of rural revitalization.
Only in this way can we all have a hometown full of expectations, a beautiful city and rural life, and then we can realize the green waters and green mountains we are talking about now.
(Finish)