Since January 2018, China has begun to pay attention to the Arctic, and has announced a policy to secure its Arctic interests, and is betting on building a road there to avoid any new obstructions in the traditional maritime trade lanes.
In an article for the National Interest, written by Andrew Latham, a professor of political science at Macalester College, Minnesota, USA, he stated that China published a document three years ago that called for greater Chinese participation in the Arctic region to explore and exploit resources.
Latham said that the recent events in the Suez Canal make the world well aware, once again, that the accidental blockage of a marine choke point is a permanent danger, but the real danger, which keeps marine insurance companies and marine strategic planners concerned, is the possibility of the deliberate closure of sea lanes by force. Military, either during war or in conflicts without war.
He noted that it is possible to close these passages in times of conflict by mines, missiles, or blockades, and (by doing so) the geopolitical and economic consequences would be catastrophic.
The importance of the North Pole
The logic behind the new Chinese policy is twofold. There is a great deal of oil, natural gas and other natural resources that are increasingly accessible as the ice melts in the Arctic, as various studies show that the Arctic contains an estimated 22% of fuel resources. Fossil remains undiscovered in the world, with the potential of 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under the disputed international waters of the region.
The region also contains large deposits of rare earth elements, which are minerals necessary for advanced military, computing and environmentally friendly technologies, such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels, and China (appreciates) both commercial and strategic opportunities in the Arctic as it prepares to exploit these opportunities.
On the other hand, and just as importantly, Beijing is interested in the Arctic because it offers a less vulnerable route to the European market. At present, the vast majority of China's trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe must pass through at least two of the world's sea lanes: The Strait of Malacca to the Strait of Hormuz, and from Malacca to Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal.
Realizing the strategic weaknesses inherent in this situation, Beijing naturally began to search for alternatives, and one of the alternatives was to invest in alternative land trade routes through the Belt and Road Initiative through Pakistan, and the sea via Panama.
Accidental blockage of a marine choke point such as the Suez Canal represents a permanent danger (European)
The road to Europe
But perhaps the most ambitious approach would be to seek a route to Europe and beyond, avoiding all major choke points, and being less likely to be challenged by hostile forces.
This route, which literally passes through the top of the world, is a trans-Arctic road, unlike the Northern Sea Route, which is another alternative polar corridor that runs along the coast of the Russian Arctic and into Russian waters.
This alternative transpolar route lies almost entirely in international waters, extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean through the center of the Arctic Ocean, and passing near the Arctic.
While the polar ice sheet is currently navigable only by heavy icebreakers, and thus is not suitable for commercial marine traffic, the contraction of the polar ice sheet by 2030 will make it passable by merchant ships.
Such a road has compelling commercial advantages, for trips between Europe and China, the Northern Sea Route could be two to 3 weeks faster than the Suez Canal, and by crossing the North Pole directly, the Trans-Pole route could provide an additional two days, in addition to the strategic advantage of Not passing through any of the major choke points in the world.
Only time will tell whether a trans-polar route will be a reality, and if climate change and shrinking polar ice caps make it a truly viable sea express, Beijing is betting on that.
And the recent events in Suez might double this bet.