Great Renaissance dam: after the failure of Kinshasa, increased tensions
Satellite images of the Renaissance Dam filling up.
A phenomenon due to the weather, according to Ethiopia.
Maxar Technologies via AP
Text by: Léonard Vincent Follow
4 min
The failure, Tuesday April 6, of three days of talks in Kinshasa on the Ethiopian mega-hydroelectric dam built on a tributary of the Nile, weighs down the climate in the region.
As the second phase of tank filling approaches, the positions seem further apart than ever.
Publicity
Read more
Sudanese negotiators left Kinshasa very angry
.
Nothing, according to them, could bend the Ethiopian delegates: their refusal of “
mediators
” or “
facilitators
” outside the African Union was total, until the end.
No proposal was accepted: neither the involvement of the UN nor that of the United States or the European Union nor the possibility for the AU to call on a third party if necessary.
The Ethiopian government representatives remained on their line: the AU, headquartered in Addis Ababa, must remain the only third party in the talks, in the name of the principle of "
African solutions to African problems
".
But the Sudanese suspect above all the Ethiopians of having made them waste time and of only trying to force their way through.
"
There is no logical reason justifying Ethiopia's rejection of the principle of mediation,
" said Sudanese Minister of Irrigation Yasser Abbas, back in Khartoum
.
Perhaps she has other intentions, with the sole aim of completing the second fill without a deal
.
"
Because it is indeed the urgency which the negotiators face today: the rainy season in Ethiopia starts in June and the government announced that it would take the opportunity to capture the 13.5 billion cubic meters of water. water needed for the dam's reservoir, no matter what, and despite all threats.
"
No one can take a drop of water from Egypt
"
Yassir Abbas asserted that this infill was "
a real threat which cannot be accepted
".
“
Ethiopian intransigence would lead Sudan to examine all possible options to protect its security and its citizens,
” he concluded.
Sudan is now considering taking the matter to the UN Security Council.
However, some fear that this political dispute could degenerate into armed conflict.
Because Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned: “
No one can take a drop of water from Egypt.
It's a red line
, ”he told the press on Wednesday April 7, after the failure of the Kinshasa discussions.
“
I've never spoken like that before
,” he added.
I'm not threatening anyone.
I am very patient
.
"
But in Addis Ababa, it is repeated that the Renaissance Grand Dam is an existential project for Ethiopia.
It must provide the Ethiopians and the region with the equivalent of the electricity production of six nuclear power plants and serve as a regulator of the river's waters. "
Ethiopia believes that time is on its side and that the fait accompli makes it stronger.
», Suggests an Ethiopian journalist.
The Congolese presidency, however, has not given up on finding a formula for resuming dialogue.
But Kinshasa's failure introduced a new deal into the equation: if the confrontation with Egypt is old, Sudan's anger may not be good news for Addis Ababa.
Already scalded by the clashes of his army with militias and the Ethiopian army in the disputed triangle of El-Fashqa, by the influx of Tigrayan refugees fleeing the massacres, by the growing role of Eritrea in the affairs of the region, Khartoum has indeed hardened its position.
“
Sudan was Ethiopia's only bulwark to keep its enemy Egypt at bay
,” explains analyst Rachid Abdi.
But this buffer has now disappeared.
If I were an Ethiopian strategist
, he concludes,
I would be very alarmed by this geopolitical shift
.
"
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
Ethiopia
Sudan
Egypt
DRC
Water
On the same subject
Renaissance Dam: in Kinshasa, a win-win arrangement for the parties in conflict?
Renaissance Dam: in Kinshasa, the tripartite meeting ends without agreement
Renaissance Dam: Egypt and Sudan denounce Ethiopia's "intransigent" attitude