Turkey deal in fact check: can Europe be blackmailed?

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expecting a distinguished visit on Tuesday: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, are coming to Turkey.

They want to set the course for a new edition of the refugee agreement that was signed five years ago and restricted the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean.

Aid organizations call the deal “pathetic” and “inhuman”, while the federal government sees it as a success.

Critics also complain that the EU is making itself dependent on Erdogan - and open to blackmail.

What is it about the allegations?

How does the deal work?

And who benefits?

A fact check.

Is the agreement working?

Yes and no.

The aim of the agreement was to greatly reduce the number of migrants arriving on the Greek islands.

That succeeded.

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The number of pure arrivals by sea was even zero on many days of the past year.

But the data can also be misleading.

Because at least last year, the refugee agreement was not responsible for the low numbers - it was an illegal practice by Greek border guards.

Source: WORLD infographic

Greece makes use of so-called pushbacks, as various researches, including one by the investigative network "Bellingcat", have shown.

The Greek coast guard rejects the migrants' boats in the open sea, despite European and international law forbidding it.

This situation has persisted since February last year.

At that time Erdogan announced that the border was open.

Thousands of migrants tried to get into the EU from Turkey.

Greek security forces pushed them back with tear gas, stun grenades and batons.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the country as the “shield” of Europe.

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Since then, the refugee deal has been de facto ineffective - "even if the EU, unlike Turkey, does not want to admit it," says John Dalhuisen from the European Stability Initiative (ESI) think tank that once drafted the refugee agreement.

Who is breaking the agreement?

"Turkey no longer properly controls the border with Greece since the escalation in February of last year," says Dalhuisen.

In addition, since March 2020 Turkey no longer takes back those migrants who have no right to protection in the EU.

However, in the agreement, Ankara had agreed to both.

However, the Turkish government also accuses Brussels of violating the agreement.

In fact, the only consideration the country gets for looking after around four million refugees is money - but the agreement also stipulated visa-free visa requirements for Turkish citizens in the Schengen area and the modernization of the customs union between the EU and Turkey.

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Now there are clear criteria that Ankara has not yet met for this - for example the amendment of the anti-terror laws against visa-free travel.

But the truth also means that the EU lacks the political will to modernize the customs union, even if it is repeatedly used as a lure.

The resettlement of Syrian refugees from Turkey to the EU is also going slowly, with only around 28,000 people being admitted - less than half of what Brussels had promised in the agreement.

Kati Piri, the former Turkey reporter of the EU Parliament, sums it up in a guest article for the WELT partner publication “Politico”: “Turkey has shouldered a heavy burden for Europe for years - for very little in return.” If the deal fail, writes the Dutch woman, then also because of European omissions.

Does the deal make the EU vulnerable to blackmail?

Opinions differ here.

The fact is: So far, Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular has blocked herself against harsh economic sanctions for Turkey.

Last autumn the conflict over natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean - fueled by the Turkish government - almost escalated.

But Erdogan was spared sanctions against entire sectors of the economy or an arms embargo: At the summit in December, the heads of state and government of the EU merely paved the way for new punitive measures against individuals and companies.

"Erdogan gets what he wants"

Despite clear criticism of domestic political developments in recent years, the EU heads of state and government have offered Turkey far-reaching concessions.

WELT author Deniz Yücel criticizes this development sharply.

Source: WELT / Thomas Klug

“The former power imbalance has reversed,” said Günter Seufert, head of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies, recently to WELT.

“Brussels used to have the longer handle.

Today the EU believes that it depends on Turkey in many areas.

She makes one concession after another without Erdogan moderating his policy. "

Dalhuisen, on the other hand, believes: "Erdogan's position is not very strong after the EU de facto managed to get by without the refugee agreement for a year."

If it works without it - why should the EU get the agreement at all?

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Because it is about the living conditions of the people who have fled from Syria and other broken countries from war and hardship.

These will be improved by the agreement in Turkey.

And because the EU is violating basic human rights if it simply decides to reject migrants at the border and no longer accept anyone.

Source: WORLD infographic

The real question, says Dalhuisen, is: “Whether the EU wants humane border control, whether it wants to preserve the core of the refugee convention, whether it wants to preserve the rule of law in Europe, whether it wants to apply its own asylum laws - basically, whether she wants to renounce the pushbacks and the inhumane practices. ”Because that is the alternative to the refugee agreement.

Does Brussels also reward Erdogan financially for his authoritarian politics?

No, the money under the refugee agreement goes directly to organizations that are active in refugee aid.

These include German associations such as the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), Deutsche Welthungerhilfe and the Reconstruction Loan Corporation (KfW).

Among the recipients, however, are Turkish government bodies that use the money to integrate the refugees: the Ministry of Labor, Family and Social Affairs has pledged a total of 265 million euros, the Ministry of Health 510 million and the Ministry of Education 700 million.

A total of six billion euros was agreed five years ago, of which 4.1 billion have been disbursed to date.

The rest of the money is already contractually tied.

This is one of the reasons why a new version of the agreement is so urgent - in order to be able to continue caring for the refugees, Ankara depends on financial support.

Last year the EU pledged another 500 million euros to Turkey.

The EU summit at the end of March promised further aid.

How many billions it will end up this time is a matter of negotiation.

Is the deal a "humanitarian failure"?

In March, the organization Pro Asyl warned of a new version of the agreement: "There is no protection or prospects for refugees in Turkey." In truth, the agreement has enormously improved the living conditions of refugees in Turkey: 1.8 million receive monthly payments, Parents receive financial support so that they can send their children to school.

In addition, all four million registered refugees in the country have access to health care.

Another goal was to end dying in the Mediterranean.

Progress has also been made here: since March 2016, when the agreement came into force, the number of migrant deaths in the eastern Mediterranean has fallen significantly.

What needs to be improved?

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The situation on the Greek islands is catastrophic.

The camps for migrants are overcrowded and the living conditions are inhuman.

This is also due to the fact that Greece was not able to process the asylum applications in good time - people had to wait months or even years.

Athens also sent very few people back to Turkey.

New warehouses are already planned.

However, in order to improve the situation in the long term, the Greek authorities have to process the asylum applications much faster.

Greece and Turkey would have to commit to taking back migrants without the right to protection;

the EU to relocate Syrian refugees from Turkey.

The think tank ESI also suggests that the EU and Turkey should work together to improve the humanitarian situation in Syria itself - in order to combat the causes of displacement where they arise.