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That's it for the International Toy Fair this year.

In 2021 the industry will no longer meet at the world's largest industry show in Nuremberg.

“The lack of perspectives on everything to do with the trade fair on the part of politicians have a significant impact on the planning of the trade fair organization and the travel arrangements of international manufacturers and buyers,” reports the organizer Spielwarenmesse eG.

Until recently, the makers had hoped to be able to bring the industry together in July - instead of the usual at the beginning of the year.

"Now the focus is on the Spielwarenmesse 2022", they say.

The first week of February was set as the date for this.

In what order of magnitude it is not yet possible to estimate.

How the entire trade fair industry is currently puzzling, how much business will come back or remain after the end of the forced Corona break.

The toy industry is one of the biggest losers

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Alongside the hospitality industry, stationary retail and creative industries, the industry is currently one of the biggest losers in the pandemic.

At many exhibition grounds there has been no event for over a year.

A recent poll by pollsters at Civey paints a bleak picture.

A good 1000 executives from small and medium-sized companies with up to 500 employees from sectors such as trade, marketing, construction, craft, industry / logistics and mechanical engineering were interviewed on behalf of Visable, the operator of the online platforms "Wer Liefer what?" And " Europages ".

The result: For 56.4 percent of the participants, the elimination of leading trade fairs after the pandemic is little or no loss.

Conversely, just under every fourth decision-maker says that the loss would be rather large or even very large.

And when asked how the presence of their own company at trade fairs will change as a result of the corona pandemic, just 21 percent of those surveyed answered that they want to continue to actively exhibit.

Companies recognize the advantages of digital platforms

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This is no surprise for Peter F. Schmid.

The CEO of Visable has been forecasting for years that the importance of face-to-face fairs will decrease significantly.

"Because for many companies it would be more efficient, both economically and ecologically, to do things online."

Until recently, however, the opposite was the case.

Year after year, the trade fair industry in this country has achieved record results.

“Hardly anyone dared to stay away from a leading trade fair,” Schmid knows from discussions with entrepreneurs.

But now Corona has forced this experiment.

"Since then, companies have recognized the advantages of digital platforms and virtual presentations of their products and services." Schmid cites the latest figures from his own businesses as evidence.

For example, with “Who delivers what?”, A business platform for companies with recently nine million products from 64 industries, is currently one record month after the next.

Depending on the topic, the growth in search orders has been between 30 and 60 percent in the past twelve months.

Construction companies are much more trade fair-oriented

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But there are differences.

Above all, companies from the mechanical and plant engineering sectors as well as from the fields of marketing and construction / trade show themselves to be significantly more trade fair-oriented than the other sectors in the survey, which is exclusively available to WELT.

But the age of the decision-makers in the company also plays a role in the evaluation of trade fairs.

The following applies: the younger the managers are, the sooner they can imagine compensating for a presence fair with alternative offers.

Among the bosses between 18 and 29 years of age, for example, 55 percent see virtual trade fairs as a substitute, as the survey shows.

With increasing age, however, this point of view decreases: Among the over-65s, the share is just in the single-digit percentage range.

Schmid therefore sees the trade fair industry changing in the coming years.

“Many traditional industry get-togethers could be obsolete in the foreseeable future,” predicts the manager.

“But that doesn't mean that trade fairs will no longer be important in the future.” And this development will certainly not happen overnight.

The first trade fairs have already been discontinued

Because despite all of the digitization he has recently learned, Schmid knows: “People want to meet.” This is also borne out by the survey.

At least “professional networking” and “social aspects” are among the most frequent answers to the question of what the participants lack when trade fairs are canceled.

“So there will continue to be trade fairs - but not all of them.” Instead, he is seeing more and more specialist conferences and summits beyond the digital realm.

Jörn Holtmeier does not contest the fact that trade fairs will disappear.

"The trade fair organizers keep checking their individual projects under medium-term cost / benefit aspects, regardless of the respective situation such as the corona crisis," says the managing director of the Association of the German Trade Fair Industry (AUMA).

There have even been the first cases recently: In Berlin, for example, the Bautec and the Stage Set Scenery have been completely discontinued, and the Kölnmesse, in turn, has taken the Photokina out of its program after 70 years.

Successful restart in trade fair business in China

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However, Holtmeier does not want to know anything about a loss of meaning - and refers, among other things, to experiences from China.

“The trade fair business got off to a successful start in several regions of the world some time ago.

In China, the number of participants has already reached the pre-Corona level, a clear sign of the continued high level of acceptance of the trade fair as a medium. "

And the AUMA boss also sees this in this country in the medium term: “We expect that the vast majority of previous exhibitors and visitors will return to their trade fairs in Germany as well.” That will certainly take some time after the next trade fair restart.

Because first of all, trust must be built in the new framework conditions.

But how long can the current compulsory break last?

In any case, there is a fear in the executive floors of the exhibition companies that exhibition brands will be forgotten if they have been away from the window for a few years.

And that can happen depending on the rhythm of the event.

Digital events for the transfer of know-how

That is why the companies are now offering a series of digital events, be it for exchange or for the transfer of know-how.

“We have to see that we remain in the customer's consciousness.

And that is not only possible with weekly newsletters, ”says Düsseldorf's trade fair boss Wolfram Diener, for example.

The problem: You can only earn money with it to a limited extent.

"The contribution margin was okay, but it is a whole universe away from the contribution margins that we otherwise achieve," said Diener about an online edition of the medical fair Medica from his company last November.

The world's largest industrial show, the Hanover Fair, will soon take place in a purely digital manner - and then it will certainly show how high the level of acceptance is among the other exhibiting companies.

Industry expert Björn Kempe reports that only around 30 percent of the original exhibitors and visitors have been brought online in the past few months.

Will not win again until 2023

“This can therefore be seen as extra income and in one case as a replacement for face-to-face fairs,” says the managing director of Expos Asia.

For him, traditional trade fairs remain “sustainable until people lose their social skills and until people can take part in transactions anywhere and in any way, virtually or holographically, with little effort”.

Nevertheless, fairs are in the late summer cycle, says Kempe.

“Of course, this model will have to constantly adapt to external conditions.” Kempe does not see any recovery before 2022, and substantial profits would not be made again until 2023.