The re-election on April 7 is nearing.

This re-election is attracting more attention than before, as it elects the metropolitan districts of Seoul, the capital of Korea and Busan, the second city.

This is an all-time rehabilitation line, with one-quarter of the population of the Republic of Korea exercising the right to vote.

In addition, the election fever is hot because it has the nature of the preliminary war of the 2022 presidential election next year.

SBS Data Journalism Team Mapo Zak-chim pointed out the points of watching the re-election on April 7 based on data from the last election.

The 10-year counting data for each town, town, and village provided by the Election Commission was used.

Following the last episode of <Election Panse on a Map: Seoul>, this episode examines the Busan Panse on a map.

We analyzed the areas to look closely at in this re-election.

● The 21st general elections in 2020 won by the Future Integration Party

This is the result of the most recent election, the 2020 21st National Assembly election.

In addition, unlike the results of Seoul, where the Democratic Party (the Democratic Party) won overwhelmingly, in Busan, the red of the Future Unified Party overwhelmed the blue of the Democratic Party.

Of the 18 electoral districts in Busan, only 3 seats were occupied by the Democratic Party (Gap Gangseo-gu, Gap Saha-gu, Eul Nam-gu), and the Future Integration Party won the remaining 15 seats.

Even for the three seats occupied by the Democratic Party, the gap with the Future Unified Party was not large.

All three were close-ups with a gap of less than 3%.

Buk-gu and Gangseo-gu had a difference of 2.0 percentage points, and Nam-gu had a difference of 1.8 percentage points, while Saha-gap had the narrowest difference of 0.9 percentage points.

However, even in the region where the Future Integration Party won, it did not unilaterally give conservative votes to the ruling party.

Eul in Saha-gu and Gap in Haeundae-gu, the districts of Rep. Cho Kyung-tae and Ha Tae-gyeong, won overwhelmingly by more than 20 percentage points, but the Democratic Party in the remaining 13 places achieved an average of over 40% of the votes.

Let's take a closer look at the same unit.

It is a map showing the changes in Busan's public sentiment during the 2020 general election.

The color of the arrow was expressed in the color of the political party of the candidate who took the first place in the relevant dong, and the size of the first and second place showed a gap.

The larger the gap, the larger the size of the arrow.

The direction of the arrow is upwards if the votes were higher than in the previous elections, and downwards if it declined.

Literally, a red wind blew all over Busan.

This is the effect of supporting more conservative candidates than in the 7th local election in 2018, the last election.

Blue wind can be seen in some regions, such as Buk-gu, Gangseo-gu, Saha-gu, and Nam-gu, where the Democratic Party won the ward unit, but the overall market trend is the overwhelming victory of the Future Integration Party.

In the old unit, the Future Integration Party won, but the region where the Democratic Party was chosen by the unit also stands out.

In Jeonggwan-eup, Gijang-gun, there is the Jeonggwan New Town, which was first opened in May 2003.

With the full-fledged move-in started in 2008, support for progressive parties has increased since 2010.

As of March 2020, the proportion of people in their 30s to 40s in Jeonggwan-eup was overwhelmingly high, accounting for 39.6% of the total population.

On the other hand, the percentage of people over 60 was only 14.2%.

This is a big difference from the population composition by generation in Busan as a whole.

The proportion of people in their 30s and 40s in Busan is 27.8%, and those in their 60s and above are 27.2%.

Although the percentage of liberal votes has decreased compared to the 7th local election in 2018, and the blue arrow is pointing downwards, it steadfastly raised the hand of the liberal candidate.

● The 7th branch in 2018, what is the direction of Busan's public sentiment?

As a result of the 2018 Busan branch, all districts were colored blue.

The election was held by Democratic Party candidate Oh Geo-don and Free Korean Party candidate Seo Byung-soo.

Candidate Geo-don Oh won in all districts in Busan, and there were four regions (Gangseo-gu, Gijang-gun, Buk-gu, and Yeongdo-gu) with more than 20%.

It was an overwhelming victory.

At this time, the center-conservative faction was a multilateral structure including the candidate of the Barun Future Party.

However, in Busan, unlike Seoul, the third candidate did not influence the general trend.

Even assuming the unification of the opposition including candidate Lee Seong-kwon of the Barunfuture Party, there was no area where a single candidate would win.

Even if you look at the same unit, you can see that candidate Ogeodon's side is full of warmth.

In the 2020 general election, a red wind swept, but two years ago, a blue wind was full.

Of course, even in the blue wind, there are also neighborhoods that have firmly chosen conservative forces.

Some red arrows are visible in the original downtown near Busan Port, a traditional conservative dominant area.

The only place in Geumjeong-gu where the red wind blows is the leading drive.

Geumjeong-gu is the place where Kim Jin-jae and Kim Se-yeon's wealthy people won seven out of eight elections in the National Assembly elections, from the 13th general election to the 20th general election.

That's why the conservative tax is strong.

Even in 2018, when Candidate Oh Geo-don won overwhelmingly, the leader threw more than half of the votes to Candidate Seo Byung-soo, the only one in Geumjeong-gu.

Let's look at the demographic composition of the leading drive.

As of May just before the 2018 election, the proportion of the population over 60 was 38.9% of the total population, and there are quite a lot of elderly people.

The proportion of people in their 60s or older in Busan is 24.7%, which is close to 15 percentage points from the leading drive.

● Where are the regions of strength progress in the last decade?

Let's broaden the scope with election data from the last 10 years.

In the past decade, which region of Busan has been a region where traditional progression and conservative strength are strong?

In the same way as in Seoul, regions with strong progressives were identified as those with high votes from the current ruling Democratic Party, while regions with strong conservatives were identified as those with high votes from the 1st opposition party (including the Future Integration Party and the Free Korea Party).

Three local elections (5, 6, 7) and 1 presidential election (19 generations), which can be counted by ward, were analyzed as targets.

First, let's look at the phrase where the progressive candidate won by a big margin.

In the 5th local election in 2010, Grand National Party candidate Heo Nam-sik defeated Democratic Party candidate Kim Jong-gil and won in all wards.

From 2014, Gus who have chosen progressive candidates appear, and only five places (Gangseo-gu, Gijang-gun, Buk-gu, Sasang-gu, and Yeonje-gu) selected candidate Oh Geo-don of the New Political Democratic Federation in the 6th branch, where Saenuri Party candidate Seo Byung-soo won.

In these five places, progressive candidates won successively in the 19th presidential election and the 7th local election.

In particular, Gangseo-gu, Gijang-gun, and Buk-gu sent more than 40% of support to candidate Moon Jae-in in the presidential election, winning generous victories with a gap of more than 10 percentage points.

Even in the 7th local election, the 3 districts supported Candidate Ogeodon with an overwhelming vote of 58.4% on average.

● Love of conservatives in the original downtown of Busan…

The battlefield is a sasang-gu

As mentioned above, the original downtown area near Busan Port is a representative area with strong conservatism.

In 2010, when Candidate Nam-sik Heo won all the wards, Jung-gu, Dong-gu, and Seo-gu won with a particularly large margin.

Candidate Nam-sik Heo, an average of the three, won by 21.3 percentage points.

This stance continues in the 6th local election.

In the 2014 local elections, when Candidate Byeong-soo Seo managed to be elected by a difference of 1.4 percentage points, Jung-gu, Dong-gu, and Seo-gu won Seo Byeong-soo with a margin of more than 10 percentage points.

In the 19th presidential election, Jung-gu, Dong-gu, and Seo-gu also selected Hong Joon-pyo, and there were no other regions in Busan where conservative candidates won.

The area where the gap did not appear the most was Busan's thoughts.

In Busan's 16 administrative districts (15 gus and 1 county), Sasang-gu was the only place where there were more than 2 battles within 3 percentage points of the last 10 years' elections.

Sasang-gu was a 2.9 percentage point difference even when all districts selected Huh Nam-sik in the 5th local election, and in the 6th local election, the gap between Candidate Geo-don Oh and Candidate Seo Byung-soo was only 1.5 percentage points.

Progressively won a great deal with the recent elections, but in the elections for the National Assembly members Jang Je-won was chosen one after another.


Deokki Yoo, Yeoun Bae, Hyemin Ahn


Junseok Ahn