Statements on the situation in the Donbass have multiplied in recent days.

While numerous violations of the ceasefire, in force since July 2020 have been recorded since January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused, Thursday April 1, Russia of accumulating troops on the border of his country. country.

"The show of force in the form of military exercises and possible provocations along the border is Russia's traditional game," he said in a statement.

Washington, for its part, warned Moscow against any attempt to "intimidate" Ukraine, while US President Joe Biden pledged on Friday, in a telephone exchange with his Ukrainian counterpart, support " unwavering "United States to the sovereignty of Ukraine.

"Russia moves its armed forces on its territory as it sees fit," reacted the Kremlin spokesman, adding that "this does not represent a threat to anyone and should not worry anyone".

At the same time, the Russian armed forces were preparing on Friday to conduct military exercises aimed at repelling a drone attack near Ukraine.

Katharine Quinn-Judge, analyst specializing in Ukraine at the International crisis group, deciphers for France 24 the causes of this renewed tension.

France 24: What is the current situation in eastern Ukraine?

Katharine Quinn-Judge:

 Ceasefire violations have increased in recent months.

The agreement that was signed in July of last year was strict and unprecedented.

It severely restricted the right of combatants to retaliate against enemy fire, which significantly reduced the number of violations for a time.

Despite everything, there were deaths.

Ceasefires do not usually reduce the level of violence and casualties to zero, but this agreement has made a really real difference in the daily lives of those living on the front lines.

>> To see: The truce in the Donbass, a lasting peace or a frozen conflict?

There is a tendency in Kiev to be cynical and to say that the ceasefire does not work, that it does not change anything.

But for the people who live in the affected areas, the ceasefire is having a real effect.

If you don't hear gunshots from morning to night, or if it's not the first thing you hear in the morning when you wake up, then it has a big effect on your quality of life.

The problem is that the ceasefire has not been accompanied by progress in political discussions.

Negotiations between belligerents have become increasingly confrontational.

And, when this is the case, the parties no longer have any real motivation to maintain the ceasefire.

Ceasefire violations increased from January onwards.

Why you think ?

I don't want to speculate too much about the effects that the change of administration in the United States may have had on one side or the other.

But the idea is circulating in Kiev today that Russia is testing Joe Biden.

And there is a bit of the opposite idea in Russia, or among the countries supported by Russia, that Ukraine is preparing for violence, because it knows that Washington will support it against Russia. that she does.

These ideas must be viewed with great caution.

But what is certain is that the political tension between the two countries has increased markedly in recent months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced the arrival of Russian forces at the border.

What is it exactly?

There are many movements of troops and material at the border.

This does not appear to be part of an impending plan of attack, but rather a warning.

The Kremlin tends to believe that Ukraine could launch an attack with Washington's backing now or in a few months.

It is essentially a show of force.

A way of saying, "We don't know exactly what you are thinking, but we don't even think about it."

What solution could make it possible to return to the level of relative calm established by the ceasefire of July 2020?

Today, I do not see how to get the ceasefire back on track.

Russia has already rejected the Ukrainians' latest attempt to re-engage in a ceasefire.

But non-governmental organizations, in Germany in particular, have made fairly convincing proposals to establish a mechanism to monitor compliance with the ceasefire.

This is something that could possibly work.

Thursday April 1, 2021, 13 violations of the cease-fire were identified by the liveuamap site.

© France 24, computer graphics service.

The summary of the week

France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 application

google-play-badge_FR