London (AFP)

The oil-producing countries bound by the Opep + agreement, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, meet on Thursday for a ministerial summit to endorse a probable extension of their current cuts.

The meeting of the alliance made up of the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its ten allies, the third of its kind this year, is to be held by videoconference and start at 12 p.m. GMT (2 p.m. in Paris and in Vienna, seat of the cartel).

"The group will almost certainly extend the current cuts in oil production in May," said Stephen Brennock, PVM analyst, in unison with many experts.

The club of 23 producers could even "go further and extend the restrictions on supply until June," he continued, possibly leaving a small margin of maneuver to Russia and Kazakhstan, which are currently the only those who have the right to marginally increase their production.

The alliance leaves some 7 million barrels underground every day.

To this is added 1 million slashed by Riyadh, so as not to flood the market with black gold that it cannot absorb due to the economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Without such action, the risks of saturation of limited storage capacities and of falling prices, recovering to around $ 60 a barrel but still fragile, are very real.

- Volatility -

After a better start to the year than the previous one, the outbreak of a third wave of contaminations in Europe and a virus that is spreading at high speed in growth markets for crude demand such as India have cooled the optimism of producers and strongly agitated the crude markets in recent weeks.

In its last report in mid-March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) delivered grim estimates: after the health shock, world oil demand should take two years to return to pre-crisis levels, according to his prognosis.

"We must keep in mind that the environment remains difficult, complex and uncertain," OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo stressed on Wednesday.

Speaking in the introduction of the now monthly Monitoring Committee of the group's current production reduction agreement (JMMC), he referred to the recent market volatility which "recalls the fragility of the economies and of the demand for oil" .

In the sights of the cartel: the risks posed by the new variants of the coronavirus, the sluggish deployment of vaccines, new containment measures and the specter of inflation.

"Under normal circumstances, such statements would send prices plunging," commented Louise Dickson of Rystad Energy, "but they now work in the opposite way as the market sees this as a sign that OPEC + will not increase. its production ".

Despite strong differences of opinion within it, Opec + has managed since spring 2020 to stay the course of a very gradual reopening policy of the black gold tap based on "caution", one of the favorite terms of the Saudi Minister of Energy and leader of the alliance, Abdelaziz ben Salman.

© 2021 AFP