A remarkable political convergence witnessed recently in the Iraqi political arena between the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr and the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Masoud Barzani, with the aim of achieving political gains in the post-parliamentary elections scheduled for next October.

The agreement is based on Barzani limiting his political reference to al-Sadr to the exclusion of other Shiite political forces, in return for al-Sadr to support the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s accession to the post of President of the Republic.

This rapprochement coincides with Al-Sadr’s assertion more than once that his movement is seeking the prime minister’s position during the upcoming elections.

The Democratic Party had sought in recent years to obtain the presidency of the republic, but it failed and devolved in all times during the past 16 years to its political rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the last of which was in 2018 when the Shiite parties overturned the equivalent in favor of the candidate of the National Union, the current President of the Republic, Barham Salih. The account of the democratic candidate at the time, Fuad Hussein, who later took over the foreign affairs portfolio in the government of the current prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi.

Al-Sarraji considered that consensus between the parties in Iraq is the basis for sharing power and spoils (Al-Jazeera Net)

Scattered Shiites

It was known about the Kurds after 2003 and with the beginning of the formation of the political process in Iraq at the hands of the American civil administrator Paul Bremer that they are the most organized, sophisticated and knowledgeable partners of what they want, and they had experience in ruling albeit limited unlike the rest of their Sunni and Shiite peers after the change, they are either afraid - according to the analyst. Iraqi politician Ahmed Al-Sarraji - from revenge as happened to the Sunnis of Iraq, or Farahin and disbelieving as the Shiites.

Al-Sarraji believes that Barzani is trying to take advantage of the Shiite dispersion prevailing in the Iraqi political milieu, and at the same time he knows the strength of one of its most important components, which is the Sadrist movement aspiring to rule Iraq, provided that the understanding is to pass the region’s share of the budget in exchange for voting for the Sadrist movement’s candidate in the prime minister of Iraq.

In light of this, according to Al-Sarraji, Shiite alliances and differences became equally active, and perhaps the trade in the issue of the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar by the former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and others is in order to block the path to this Kurdish-Sadrist rapprochement, which, if successful, will lead to a radical change in the map of Shiite forces. Specifically, the Dawa Party led by Maliki, who dreams of returning to power again.

According to Al-Sarraji, consensus is the basis for sharing power and spoils, so the first condition for the Kurds was the interest and the region’s share of oil, whoever ruled Iraq, and since the consensus is based on the presidency for the Kurds, the parliament for the Sunnis, and the prime minister for the Shi’ites, the Kurds were given an important bargaining chip. - Being the egg-white inside the House of Representatives - between them and the Shiite parties, which are looking for a majority to obtain the position, which made the Shiites the weakest in negotiation and the most in making concessions, the effects of which were clearly evident today through misery, poverty and the destroyed structure in the same central and southern cities. The Shiite majority.

The Iraqi parliament consists of 329 seats shared by rival blocs (Reuters)

Barzani and the chair of the presidency

The possibility that this rapprochement will facilitate Sadr's accession to the premiership and Barzani to the presidency of the republic is strongly mentioned, and this is confirmed by reality, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party is the most powerful organization in Iraqi Kurdistan, according to party member Dr. Repin Salam, who is matched by the same characteristics, Muqtada al-Sadr in central and southern Iraq.

Regarding the reason for choosing Al-Sadr from among the other Shiite forces and parties to agree with him, the member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) says that it is due to several issues, most notably the historical one, as the two worked together while opposing the regime of former President Saddam Hussein, in addition to the commitment of Sadr’s deputies to their reference and directives, unlike many Parties and political blocs that lack this advantage, but the doors of rapprochement and alliance are open for his party with other parties in the Iraqi arena.

Regarding the positive aspects of the agreement, Salam affirms that it contributes to the stability of Iraq, attributing the reason for that to the fact that this type of political organization needs to be revised, and usually the latter is only through the large political parties and blocs that enjoy high popularity.

Salam does not hide his party’s pursuit of the presidency, in his response to a question by Al-Jazeera Net about whether his party seeks to wrest the presidency of the republic from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan that has held it since 2005, with his party’s closeness to al-Sadr.

Salam criticizes the arrival of a figure like Barham Salih to the presidency, who won only two seats before returning to the ranks of the National Union, which leads to the fragility of the position, as well as the case with Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, who does not have any parliamentary seat, unlike the late President Jalal Talabani, who He gathered all the differences with his wisdom.

Anwar ruled failure for any Kurdish party alliance outside the Kurdistan House (Al-Jazeera Net)

The alliance failed

However, a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan media office, Karwan Anwar, prejudices any Kurdish alliances that occur outside the Kurdish house, especially if the matter is related to inciting one party against another, restricting success in the alliances that take place inside the Kurdish house.

Anwar reinforces his position by referring to the events and agreements that took place during the post-2003 years, surprising the democratic convergence with al-Sadr, saying, "If we translate the Kurdish media discourse of Barzani's party into Arabic, then it is impossible for him to ally with any party other than Kurdish, especially the Shiite ones, because Barzani's media criticizes the Patriotic Union stemming from the Patriotic Union's proximity to the Iraqi and Shiite forces in particular, and the Kurdistan street now knows very well that most of the Sunni leaders, even former Baathists, are in Erbil and under the influence of the democracy, and the closest to the Sunnis is the Democratic Party and the closest to the Shiites is the Union Kurdistan Patriotic. "

Anwar does not hide the existence of a blatant intention and competition for Barzani's party to obtain other sovereign positions, be they Iraqi or Kurdish, and for several times he tried with all his strength to reach the presidency of the republic, but all his attempts were unsuccessful.

He confirms that the strength of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in Iraq is greater than that of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, attributing the reason for this to the clear and frank rhetoric of his party towards Iraq, unlike Barzani's party.

Anwar concludes his speech to Al-Jazeera Net by stressing that since 2003 there has been a quasi-agreement between all the Iraqi forces, for the distribution of the three sovereign positions, including the presidency of the Republic for the Kurds, and from the Kurds it is received by the National Union, but there are agreements and alliances and the distribution of tasks and responsibilities may change those equations, definitely That the Sadrists do not assist any Kurdish party against another, but rather leave the case for alliances and agreements within the Kurdish house.

before it's time

The Sadrist movement does not limit its rapprochement with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, but rather stands at a distance from all Kurdish blocs, based on the fact that the interest of Iraq requires consultation with all parties, as the deputy of the Sadr-affiliated "Sairun" coalition, Ali Saadoun Ghulam, says, and confirms that the discussion is about a post-stage The next election is premature.

Regarding whether this rapprochement helps the Sadrists to obtain the premiership and the Democratic Party for the presidency, Ghulam is satisfied in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that these agreements and others depend on the results of the elections, but now the data are not clear at all.

Noah considered that talking about future agreements between Barzani and Al-Sadr is very early now (Al-Jazeera Net)

A Shiite Kurdish reference

In turn, the Kurdish journalist and political analyst Saman Noah comments on this rapprochement and the content of the agreements in it, that it is not possible to talk about agreements, as there are meetings that took place with the aim of coordination and understanding in some files in order for each party to pass its agenda in the current stage before the elections, and this may have been evident from the arrangements. And the understanding that was obtained regarding the share of the Kurds in the current budget, which was agreed upon in the parliament session yesterday, where the Sadrist movement agreed to the recent amendments and were rejected by other blocs, such as the State of Law and Fatah blocs.

As for talking about future agreements, it is very early talk - according to Noah - and the understandings are contained between the blocs in every joint, but at the same time they are temporary and fluctuating according to their interests in each file and every stage.

Noah welcomed any understandings between any two major powers, as this would help stabilize the country.

In response to a question by Al-Jazeera Net about Barzani's gains from this rapprochement, he indicated that the Kurdish democrat considers that his presence in Baghdad has declined in recent years despite the escalation of their power in the region, and they want to maximize their power in Baghdad, and perhaps they found the appropriate partner in the Sadrist movement at this stage.

Noah stresses that any alliance between two forces only in Iraq cannot achieve great goals because the 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament are distributed among more than eight prominent blocs, and we must not forget that the National Union - according to previous electoral experiences and even if it did not achieve the results of an approach to democracy in Regional elections - he always won seats close to the democratic seats in the Iraqi parliament, in addition to his openness and understandings with some Shiite forces, which always enabled him to achieve gains or breakthroughs in Baghdad at the expense of the democrat.

Muhammad considered that the movements of the Democratic Party towards Al-Sadr come to achieve partisan and family interests (Al-Jazeera Net)

A partisan family interest

On the other hand, a member of the Kurdish opposition "Al-Amal" bloc in the Iraqi parliament, Kawa Muhammad, describes the KDP’s moves towards al-Sadr as being based on partisan and family interest, as has been the case since 2003, which has hindered the existence of a strategic relationship between the governments of Baghdad and Erbil through his uniqueness. How to deal with other Iraqi parties.

The Kurdistan Democrat seeks to draw closer to Al-Sadr in order to obtain partisan gains in the next federal government, after the leader of the Sadrists more than once hinted his intention to obtain the premiership, stressing that this contradiction is never different from what Barzani's party was in the 2018 elections when it allied with the Al-Binaa bloc. Shiism, at a time he was directing the strongest criticism against the popular crowd.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Muhammad agrees with Salam that there is an intention or attempts by the Kurdistan Democratic Party to wrest the presidency of the republic in the next government from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan after his first attempt in the 2018 elections failed, and that this is what prompts him to draw closer to al-Sadr in the next stage.