Despite Egypt's announcement today, Monday, that the delinquent ship successfully floated in the Suez Canal, and the return of navigation in the international shipping lane;

However, this incident, which affected global merchants, cast a shadow over the future of the Suez Canal in light of talk of competition corridors and alternative commercial transport projects.

How about these alternative corridors?

What do experts say about the future of the Suez Canal?

This afternoon, Monday, the Egyptian Suez Canal Authority announced that it had succeeded - with its capabilities - in rescuing and floating the container ship "Evergiven", whose tonnage exceeds 200 thousand tons.

The process of crossing the waiting ships at the entrances to the canal takes about 3 and a half days after the ship floats.

After this announcement, there are many questions raised about the future of the strategic Suez Canal in the face of possible alternative corridors and other global commercial transport projects.

About 30% of the world's shipping containers pass daily through the 193 km long Suez Canal, and about 12% of the total global trade of all goods.

The Israeli project

The specialist in economic affairs, Mustafa Abdel Salam, says that there are projects and corridors, some of which have begun to be implemented and others are in the stages of study, which pose great challenges to the Suez Canal, the most important waterway in the world today.

He added, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that one of the most important projects that threaten the future of the Suez Canal is the Israeli project, by digging a parallel channel to the Suez Canal linking the ports of Eilat and Ashkelon.

He points out that this project was closed in recent years due to lack of funding, but its idea was revived again in light of the normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE.

Abd al-Salam believes that the occupation state’s project, if turned into reality, would threaten the Suez Canal because the goods and commodities that currently pass through the Egyptian Canal are the same, especially the giant oil and gas ships from the Gulf region, Iran and Iraq to the world markets and oil from Azerbaijan and the countries of the Soviet Union Previously to Africa.

In the last quarter of 2020, the UAE and Israel signed an agreement aimed at transporting Gulf oil to Europe, through a pipeline linking the port of Eilat on the Red Sea and the port of Ashkelon on the Mediterranean, most of which currently passes through the Suez Canal.

The line was established by Israel in the 1960s to transport Iranian oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, after Egypt restricted passage through the Suez Canal following the tripartite aggression (France, Israel and Britain in 1956) to ensure energy supplies.

According to the American Foreign Policy magazine, trade traffic in the Suez Canal is expected to decrease by more than 17% under the Emirati-Israeli agreement.

The head of the Suez Canal Authority has warned on more than one occasion of the repercussions of launching any parallel project for maritime transport on the Egyptian interests, and explained that the project will affect the number of ships crossing the canal by a rate ranging between 12% and 16%.

But it will not affect container transit.

Mustafa Abdel Salam: The most dangerous threat to the Suez Canal is the Cape of Good Hope Road (Al-Jazeera)

North Sea corridor

Mustafa Abdel Salam adds that there is another project that poses a challenge to the Suez Canal, and the matter is related to the North Sea project, which Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about a few days ago.

It is the project that will establish the shortest route for commercial transport between the countries of the former Soviet Union and the markets of Asia and the European continent.

Two days ago, the traveling Russian ambassador, Nikolai Korchunov, told the Interfax news agency, "The accident in the Suez Canal will force everyone to think about the need to diversify maritime shipping routes, with the growing volume of maritime transport."

The Russian official added that the disruption of navigation in the Suez Canal highlights the importance of developing the sea corridor across the Arctic, which has become increasingly usable due to climate change, which led to more ice melting.

Russia has invested heavily in developing the northern sea corridor, which allows ships to reach Asian ports in 15 days less than the traditional route through the Suez Canal, and Moscow plans to use the corridor to export oil and gas to foreign markets, especially since most of the corridor is largely free of ice. .

For its part, the Russian Energy Ministry said today, Monday, that the stranded container ship blocking the Suez Canal in Egypt highlights the safety and sustainability of its North Sea route and Russian energy pipelines.

Other alternative projects

In addition to the above, economist Mustafa Abdel Salam listed a number of other projects that pose a challenge to the Suez Canal in maintaining its global leadership position.

In this context, he talked about the Chinese Silk Road project, the Chinese trains project to Europe, and the South North Corridor that carries goods from India and Europe through Iran, Turkey and a number of Arab countries.

Cape of Good Hope

But the most dangerous threat - Mustafa Abdel Salam asserts - is the Cape of Good Hope road for a number of advantages, including cheapness, cost and safety, and the possibility of choosing it from giant oil tankers as a commercially feasible alternative when global oil prices drop.

He says that the Cape of Good Hope is currently an integrated alternative to its stable security conditions.

Mustafa Abdel Salam points out that the rest of the other projects may face great difficulties related to the nature of the terrain, such as rocks, as is the case with the Israeli project, and the ice for the Russian project, in addition to the fact that such projects need billions of dollars to complete, which may not be able to many Countries.

Despite all these threats and challenges,

However, Mustafa Abdel Salam is still convinced that the Suez Canal is still, and will remain in the coming years, the most important shipping lane in the world.

Dr. Khaled Al-Ma`tah: There will be no real alternative to the Suez Canal (Al-Jazeera)

No real alternatives

In turn, Dr. Khaled Al-Ma`tah, Director General of the Aqaba Ports Company in Jordan, affirms that there will be no real alternative to the Suez Canal in the Middle East region, regardless of the number of initiatives, whether by Israel or others.

And he added, in an exclusive interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that the terrain surrounding the Suez Canal is easy and flat;

Which made it less expensive than others.

And he continues, "Even if Israel tries to create a canal, its attempts will not succeed, and it will be of a very high cost, given the nature of the rugged terrain."

"The terrain there is completely different from the surroundings of the Suez Canal, as the terrain is easy and flat," he asserts.

Concerning the losses that companies and institutions will incur as a result of the ship’s stranding accident, Khaled Al Ma’yetah expressed his belief that "it will not be great."

But he clarified that there will be delays in the delivery of goods and compensation to some companies by insurance companies and others, in addition to losses related to additional fuel consumption.

Regarding Jordan, Maaiteh confirms that his company has prepared a strategic plan to ensure a smooth reception of ships and containers destined for Jordan's ports.

"We have a ready plan to ensure that ships arrive from the Suez Canal to the country's ports without any delay, and there will be no additional costs on these ships," he says.

For his part, Amin Musa al-Hajj, an expert in maritime transport economics, also says that "no canal can replace the Suez Canal despite the current crisis."

He added in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the rest of the other projects - according to his knowledge - remain just ideas or projects that have not been implemented on the ground.

Amin Musa Al-Hajj: The ships that will choose to pass through the Cape of Good Hope will suffer from high costs and the length of time factor (Al-Jazeera)

Well established channel

Amin Moussa Al-Hajj describes the Suez Canal as "a well-established, proven and less expensive canal," and the ships that choose to pass through the Cape of Good Hope will suffer from a high cost and a factor of time.

And he expresses his belief that any other transport projects - away from water - will be more expensive, stressing that water transport is the cheapest form of transportation at all, although the world may need to build water channels linking Asia to Europe;

But the Suez Canal - in his opinion - remains the best, fastest and least expensive way.

For his part, an expert in communications and maritime safety in Sudan, Sameh Al-Sayegh, said, "After the Suez Canal ship crisis, shipowners will search for other alternative ways, and this will be reflected in the Egyptian economy."

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Sayegh expressed his belief that it is difficult to find other passages alternative to the Suez Canal, except for the (proposed) Israeli passage, and this would be in the interest of Israel. "

In light of the current crisis, Al-Sayegh stresses the importance of expanding and deepening the Suez Canal (Al-Jazeera)

He pointed out that if Egypt was unable to fulfill its obligations in the Suez Canal despite it enjoying a closer distance between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, the other solution, according to Al-Sayegh, would be in Israel despite the high cost.

He pointed out that the economic and strategic dimension may have made Israel revive the alternative channel project.

Because the returns will be large despite the costs of establishing them

He says that there are two advantages that make the implementation of the Israeli project feasible:

First, Israel's technological development, and secondly, that it is the spoiled child of America and the Western countries, so you will not find anyone objecting to this project, as he put it.

Al-Sayegh did not rule out that the financing of this project would be from the UAE, nor did he rule out that ships would later be forced to sail through this new Israeli channel with Western support.

What to do

In light of the current crisis, Al-Sayegh stresses the importance of expanding and deepening the Suez Canal. He also stresses that the maritime administration is well trained and selected, according to very precise requirements. In his opinion, this will only be done through an external, non-governmental advisory body.

In order for this strategic corridor to continue to play global roles, Mostafa Abdel Salam stressed the need for the Egyptian authorities to deepen the current corridor.

To accommodate giant ships, and expand it to facilitate rescue operations in case of crises, in addition to equipping new and huge tankers and tugs that help speed up the implementation of rescue operations.

As for Amin Musa al-Hajj, he stresses the need to introduce changes to the Suez Canal, not necessarily in the middle of it.

But by deepening the limbs, for example, or creating new sub-channels.