Estimates and assessments continue to follow regarding the repercussions of the continued crisis of the delinquent ship in the Egyptian Suez Canal on global trade traffic, as hundreds of cargo and oil ships accumulate awaiting the return of navigation to one of the most active maritime trade lanes in the world, and questions are being raised about the effects of this accident on the future of the Suez Canal. , And competition sea lanes.

Among the most prominent repercussions of the continued halt of navigation in the Suez Canal is the disruption of the movement of 321 ships inside the canal, which causes European companies heavy losses due to delayed shipments of imported goods from East Asia, and also the losses of consumers who have increased their demand for electronic purchase of goods due to the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Chris Georges, chief trade analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says that the short-term repercussions of the "Evergreen" delinquent ship crisis are potential disruptions to consumer goods' market access, and some industrial sectors have been affected by delayed shipments of materials and goods. That goes into its productive cycle.

This incident comes in light of pressures on the global trade network due to the economic hardships that have produced - and are still - the Coronavirus pandemic.

Difficulties for Europeans

There are currently fears that the Suez Canal accident will exacerbate logistical difficulties for Europe, in terms of canceling commercial ships' flights, a shortage of available containers, and an increase in sea freight prices.

About 15% of the global freight traffic passes through the Suez Canal, and the freight rates of oil product tankers almost doubled after the ship ran aground.

In order to overcome the current crisis, the ships that were scheduled to reach the Suez Canal began to divert their destination to a longer route (increasing the voyages by about two weeks) and more expensive (additional fuel costs) towards the Cape of Good Hope in the far south of the African continent, in order to avoid waiting for more days. Pending the delinquent ship crisis.

The delinquent ship accident led to the disruption of the movement of dozens of oil tankers, which collectively carry nearly two million barrels per day. The "Rystad Energy" research company said that the delinquent container ship crisis may delay the delivery of about one million tons of LNG to Europe, if the navigation continues to stop. For two weeks.

supply chains

And many major international companies in Europe, America and Asia announced that the delayed delivery of their suspended shipments, due to the ship’s accident, may lead to confusion in the normal course of the import and export process. Indeed, some companies, such as the American company, Caterpillar, for the manufacture of equipment, said that they were considering operating flights. To ship some products, if necessary, in light of the continued suspension of navigation in the Suez Canal

Experts say that about 45% of the volume of goods in the Port of New York and New Jersey in the United States passes through the Suez Canal, and the British newspaper "Lloyds List", which specializes in shipping affairs, estimates that approximately 9 billion and 600 million dollars of goods packed in containers It passes through the Suez Canal daily.

A study conducted by the German insurance company Alianz said that the disruption of navigation in the canal could cost global trade between 6 and 10 billion dollars per week, and Moody's expects the credit rating company that the manufacturing and auto parts supply sectors in Europe will be the hardest hit.

Despite these concerns and losses, the head of the Suez Canal Authority, Osama Rabei, said in a press conference yesterday that he does not believe that shipping companies will give up using the canal due to the current accident, stressing that what happened remains an exceptional event, as the channel crossed it last year more than 18 thousand Ship without any problems.

Competition lanes

In addition to the near and far repercussions of the accident on global trade, the discussion also raises about the potential effects on the future of the Suez Canal, and its attractiveness to shipping companies.

Two days ago, the Russian ambassador-at-large, Nikolai Korchunov, told the Interfax news agency, "The accident that occurred in the Suez Canal will force everyone to think about the need to diversify maritime shipping routes, with the growing volume of maritime transport."

The Russian official added that the disruption of navigation in the Suez Canal highlights the importance of developing the sea corridor across the Arctic, which has become increasingly usable due to climate change, which led to more ice melting.

Russia has invested heavily in developing the northern sea corridor, which allows ships to reach Asian ports in 15 days less, compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal, and Moscow plans to use the corridor to export oil and gas to foreign markets, especially since most of the corridor is free of ice to a certain extent. Big.

Regional project

In addition to the Russian corridor, there is competition for the Egyptian Suez Canal from a nearby regional project. In the last quarter of 2020, the UAE and Israel signed an agreement aimed at transporting Gulf oil to Europe, through a pipeline linking the ports of Eilat on the Red Sea and Ashkelon on the Mediterranean, which Most of it currently passes through the Suez Canal.

The line was established by Israel in the 1960s to transport Iranian oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, after Egypt restricted passage through the Suez Canal following the tripartite aggression (France, Israel and Britain in 1956) to ensure energy supplies.

According to the American Foreign Policy magazine, trade traffic in the Suez Canal is expected to decrease by more than 17% under the Emirati-Israeli agreement.

The head of the Suez Canal Authority has warned, on more than one occasion, of the repercussions of launching any parallel project for maritime transport on the Egyptian interests, and explained that the project will affect the number of ships crossing the canal by between 12 and 16%, but it will not affect the transit of containers.