Washington (AFP)

The economy was gloomy in February in the United States, swept by a wave of bad weather, but economists are sure: the economy is well on the rails to rebound.

"Winter frost before spring bloom," summed up Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics, in a metaphor.

Household consumption expenditure, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, fell by 1% in February after jumping 3.4% the previous month.

And this drop is greater than expected (-0.6%).

But they are expected to rebound with growing optimism across the country thanks to the accelerated vaccination and government checks paid out to millions of Americans.

US consumer confidence improved markedly in March, even reaching its highest level in a year, according to the University of Michigan survey released on Friday.

The figures for March and April should therefore make one forget the bad month of February.

Last month, a cold snap across the country and the snowstorms that crippled Texas in particular prevented many people from leaving their homes, eating out or going to stores.

Household incomes plunged 7.1% after unusually high levels recorded in January when the government distributed checks to millions of Americans.

Those economic stimulus checks, of up to $ 600 per person, were written into the $ 900 billion economic aid plan approved under Donald Trump by Congress late last year.

These poor numbers, on top of the sluggish retail sales reported last week, do not reflect the underlying trend, however.

- "Temporary setback" -

"The decline in income and spending in February is only a temporary setback," insists Gregory Daco.

"We expect the rise in the vaccination rate combined with the arrival of new stimulus checks (...) to provide a powerful boost to consumer spending in March," he said.

On average 2.5 million people are vaccinated daily in the United States.

A majority of the population will thus be by July 4, national holiday.

The country is regaining vitality with the opening of restaurants, cinemas, gyms and spas.

The travel sector is also thriving thanks to domestic tourism while waiting for international visitors.

The end of the first quarter is going to be strong, according to Oxford Economics calculations, which "should bring consumer spending growth to 7.4%" and "GDP growth to around 8%" for the first three months. of the year.

"Whatever the damage recorded in February, we expect a solid rebound in March and April", in particular because the amount of the many stimulus checks are also two and a half times greater than that of December ", at 1,400 dollars per person, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The Treasury said this week that the tax services had disbursed some 37 million additional payments, bringing the total payments made under the American Rescue Plan to about 127 million payments, with a total value of some 325 billion. of dollars.

On the inflation front, watched like milk on fire by the financial markets, it accelerated slightly over one year in February, driven in particular by the rise in the cost of gasoline, according to the PCE index, the favorite barometer from the Fed to observe the price increase, also released on Friday.

In February alone, the increase in consumer prices slowed to 0.2% when analysts were forecasting + 0.3% as last month.

But over one year, prices rose 1.6% against 1.4% the month before, according to figures from the Department of Commerce.

Fears that inflation could run away from stimulus packages and eventually thwart growth have rocked Wall Street in recent weeks.

But Jerome Powell, president of the Central Bank, assured that if there was a rise in prices in the short term, it would be "temporary".

© 2021 AFP