The government announced on the morning of the 25th that North Korea launched two ballistic missiles, both of which are estimated to have fallen into the Sea of ​​Japan outside Japan's EEZ = Exclusive Economic Zone.

The launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea for the first time in about a year since March last year.

Why at this timing.

What is the aim?

The analysis was based on the recent international situation surrounding North Korea, the United States, and China.

According to the government, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles in the east direction, one from the vicinity of Songdok on the east coast of North Korea at around 7:04 and 23 on the 25th. It is estimated that he flew about 450 kilometers.

Will it fall outside the Japanese EEZ?

It is estimated that all of them fell in the Sea of ​​Japan outside Japan's EEZ = Exclusive Economic Zone, and no damage to aircraft or ships has been confirmed so far.

Prime Minister Suga said, "The missile launch for the first time in about a year since March 29, last year threatens the peace and security of our country and the region. It also violates the UN security legislation resolution, and we strongly protest and strongly condemn it. I will do it. "



"We need to be more vigilant and scrutinized than ever before, and we are determined to work closely with the United States, South Korea, and other countries concerned to firmly protect the lives and peaceful lives of the people."

What is North Korea's aim?

I asked an expert.

Former Chief of Staff "Is it the purpose of improving the ability to repeatedly fire training?"

Yoji Koda, a former chief of staff who served as the commander of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, said, "Japan is not within range of the short-range ballistic missile launched this time, and it does not pose a direct threat." Seems to have had the purpose of increasing its launch capability by repeating training. In the future, short-range missile technology may be applied to improve the performance of medium- and long-range missiles that Japan is within range. , It is necessary to pay close attention. "



Regarding the aim of the launch, Mr. Koda said, "While the Biden administration was born and the United States is reviewing its policy toward North Korea, it seems that there is an intention to make the United States aware of its existence within a range that does not overstimulate the United States. "Isn't it?" And "It is important for North Korea to show the existence of intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the mainland of the United States. I would like to show its ability before the United States consolidates its policy toward North Korea. There is plenty of potential, "he said, pointing out the possibility of launching longer-range missiles, such as the ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missile.

Professor Shunji Hiraiwa "Do you want to see the reaction of America?"

Professor Shunji Hiraiwa of Nanzan University, who is familiar with the situation in North Korea, mentioned the launch of two cruise missiles on the 21st of this month prior to this launch. Then, I think he wanted to act in a way that violated the resolution and see the reaction of the United States. "



On top of that, "There was a promise between former President Trump and General Secretary Kim Jung-eun to refrain from launching ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear tests, but I would like to confirm whether this should be exceeded. I think there was also a thought. "



On top of that, "The" 2 plus 2 "of Japan, the United States, the United States and South Korea has ended, the dialogue between the United States and China has ended, and this time, high-ranking talks on security in charge of Japan, the United States and South Korea are scheduled. I think it was meaningful for North Korea to consider the next response based on the results of the future high-ranking talks on security between Japan, the United States and South Korea and the summit meeting between Japan and the United States. " Said.

"Unwavering determination to defend South Korea and Japan" US Indo-Pacific Army

A spokesman for the Indo-Pacific Army issued a statement in the United States following the launch by North Korea.


The statement said, "We are aware of North Korea's missile launches. We are closely watching the situation and are in close consultation with our allies and friends. These actions pose a threat to neighboring countries and the international community due to North Korea's illegal weapons development. The United States' determination to defend South Korea and Japan is unwavering. "

25 North Korean adults 8 last year

This is a recent move regarding the launch of ballistic missiles by North Korea.



From May to November, a total of 25 short-range ballistic missiles were launched, of which North Korea announced the SLBM = submarine-launched ballistic missile "North Pole Star Type 3" for the October launch.



At this time, it is believed that Japan fell into the EEZ = Exclusive Economic Zone.

Last year, in March, a total of eight short-range ballistic missiles were launched, and at this time, two shots were fired at short intervals, so it is believed that the ability to fire continuously was improved. It was.



Since then, no ballistic missiles have been confirmed to be launched, but in April last year, several missiles, which appear to be short-range cruise missiles, were launched toward the Sea of ​​Japan.

Recent US-North Korea relations

North Korea held three summit meetings with the former Trump administration in the United States, but did not close the gap in the position of denuclearization.



In October, a working-level talk between the United States and North Korea was held in Sweden, but North Korea claimed that the attitude of the United States had not changed and claimed that "the talks broke down." It remains unseen.

General Secretary Kim Jong-un called the United States the "greatest enemy" at the Workers' Party of Korea convention in January and showed a confrontational stance with the Biden administration in mind.

However, General Secretary Kim also added implications to the dialogue, saying, "The key to establishing a new US-North Korea relationship is for the United States to withdraw its hostile policy."



In March, Kim's younger sister, Yo-jong, announced a discourse against the joint military exercises by the US and South Korean troops, restraining the Biden administration.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has revealed that it has been trying to contact North Korea since last month, but Choi Soni, the first secretary of the North Korean Foreign Ministry, said, "Unless we withdraw the hostile policy, we will ignore it." I made a discourse and was repulsing.

Biden administration reviewing North Korean policy

The Biden administration in the United States is currently reviewing its policy toward North Korea, and in addition to this month's ministerial talks on foreign affairs and defense with Japan and South Korea, it will invite officials in charge of security issues from both countries later next week. We are going to talk.

When it was revealed earlier that North Korea had launched two suspected cruise missiles, senior government officials said, "It is not subject to the sanctions of the UN Security Council resolution limiting ballistic missiles. The door to dialogue. It does not close, "he said, showing his willingness to get involved through diplomacy.



At this time, the US government has not disclosed whether the missile launched is a ballistic missile, but it is the first time for the Biden administration to conclude that it is a ballistic missile.



The launch of ballistic missiles is a violation of the UN Security Council resolution and may require the Biden administration to respond.



Regarding North Korean missile launches, the former Trump administration strongly restrained the ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missile-class launch test that reaches the continental United States, while short-range missiles are virtually unproblematic and strict. It was also pointed out that there was a temperature difference between Japan and the United States.



The Biden administration intends to finish reviewing its policy toward North Korea soon, but it emphasizes the policy of emphasizing cooperation with allies, and the focus will be on what kind of attitude it will take in the future following the launch by North Korea.