The Muslim Brotherhood is ready for reconciliation .. Will it welcome the Egyptian regime?

It seems that the indicators of Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement recently encouraged the Muslim Brotherhood to show its willingness to reconcile with the regime of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, after years of conflict and persecution.

And that through a context whose most prominent features were the desire to relieve the thousands of detainees in prisons and their families .. So has the hour of Egyptian reconciliation come right?

Does the Egyptian system accept that?

In a rare initiative, Ibrahim Mounir, the acting general guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, affirmed the group's readiness to accept any offer that serves the interest of the Egyptian people, days after Ankara announced the start of diplomatic contacts with Cairo in order to restore relations to normal, contrary to what was raised about the government's request Turkish, one of the Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Istanbul, is to stop political programs and reduce media tension with Egypt.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Mubasher, Mounir said, "If he is presented to the Egyptian opposition, and we are part of it, a dialogue with the regime, including detainees, kidnappers, people with blood, and the improvement of the people's conditions, we will not refuse, and if we refuse, we will definitely be wrong."

Despite the great welcome of leaders and those affiliated with the Islamic trend, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Group and even the Salafi Nour Party (pro-Sisi);

However, the initiative of the highest official in the group now, this time, according to analysts and experts, may collide with a reality completely different from the many previous initiatives.

This is exemplified by the fact that the Brotherhood has recently lost local weight after security strikes and judicial prosecutions, in contrast to its internal divisions and a decline in international and regional support.

And this difficult reality that the group is currently suffering from, which political analysts saw in separate statements to Al-Jazeera Net, weakens its position in imposing any conditions for reconciliation with the regime, which is consistent with a major media attack in the past two days by supporters of the regime on the initiative and the emphasis on rejection of reconciliation with the Brotherhood.

There is an important indication, upon which political analysts have agreed, that the file of reconciliation between the regime and the Brotherhood is completely far from the calculations of the Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement, despite the importance of the Turkish role in pushing towards this path for the sake of political detainees.

Since the military coup that Al-Sisi carried out when he was Minister of Defense in the summer of 2013, when the constitution was suspended and the elected President Mohamed Morsi was dismissed, Egypt is witnessing a political crisis and a societal division, with which local and international initiatives have not succeeded, between the regime and the opposition forces, led by the Brotherhood.

Attacked and rejected

Through his Twitter account, Egyptian parliamentarian Mahmoud Badr (founder of the Tamarod movement that paved the way for the military coup) responded to Munir’s statement that “the Brotherhood trusts Turkey and accepts its mediation with the regime,” saying that his country “did not offer mediation on the issue of the Brotherhood, nor would the Egyptians accept it.” .

Knowing that the Brotherhood trusts in Turkey, not the sponge, and the official sponsor for them is to spend on their food, drinking, channels, and terrorist operations as well .. But Egypt does not have mediation on the issue of the Brotherhood and this man’s words, he responded to the Brotherhood announcer's question: Do you accept reconciliation with the regime?

https://t.co/rxoGenQART

- Mahmoud Badr (@ ma7mod_badr) March 21, 2021

Ibrahim Issa, a media close to the regime, attacked the Muslim Brotherhood, considering the Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement as "not the end of the group," which he described as "renewing itself through the transfer of its leaders from one country to another."

Issa claimed that the late President Anwar Sadat "revived the remains of the Brotherhood, and it ended up killing him."

It is noteworthy that Sadat was assassinated during a military parade in Cairo on October 6, 1981, by army officers who did not belong to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Issa demanded not to repeat the "tragedy once again with the tolerant return of the Brotherhood," calling for "striking it in the ribs, and for us (Egypt) not to be fooled as it did before," according to him.

In the same context, another journalist close to the regime, Nashat al-Daihi, said that those who support the Brotherhood "are hostile to Egypt ... which is a group that is classified as a terrorist group, and everyone who cooperates with it engages in a terrorist act."

During his program on the "TeN" channel, which is financed by the UAE, Al-Daihi demanded that the conciliatory path between Egypt and Turkey not be linked to the Brotherhood's file, stressing that "there will be no reconciliation with the group."

He added that "the state has not and will not consider a reconciliation with the group," considering that Munir's talk about reconciliation "is a search for a way out after the land has narrowed with the Brotherhood," he said.

Yasser Burhami, deputy head of the Salafi Call in Egypt, was keen on criticizing the Brotherhood and questioning their intentions towards Egypt and even the Islamic religion, knowing that the Nour Party was a political partner of the Brotherhood for a period of time after the January 2011 revolution before it became a partner in the coup. Al-Sisi led him against President Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Brotherhood.

before it's time

Mohamed Hamed, director of the Eastern Mediterranean Forum for Political and Strategic Studies, a non-governmental forum based in Cairo, said that the regime's acceptance of reconciliation with the Brotherhood was premature, and it was presented more than once in secret without details, and this is the first time that it has been made public by the group.

Hamed, who is a supporter of the current Egyptian regime, ruled out any interaction from the regime with Munir’s initiative, explaining that there are brothers inside, who have sentences in prisons, and the regime is able to negotiate with them, and between 2017 and 2018 they were previously asked to disband the organization.

As for the repercussions of reconciliation with Turkey on the reconciliation file, Hamed said, "It is not possible to talk at the beginning of building confidence between the two countries, and to determine the nature of the return of bilateral relations about dealing with a thorny file of the size of the Muslim Brotherhood file, and no features appear in the current period in this regard. ".

And he considered that there is a rush to talk about a reconciliation initiative;

Because the atmosphere is not prepared in the current period, and the influential party, which is the regime, is not in a hurry in such a matter yet.

With regard to the implications of the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation, he said that it may be balanced in the interests of the two countries, and that it will be in favor of the Egyptian regime and not in the interest of the Muslim Brotherhood, noting that previous reconciliation initiatives have emerged;

But the regime did not show her interest.

Absence of indicators

On the other hand, professor of political science at Cairo University, Hassan Nafaa, believes that the Brotherhood’s demonstrating its willingness to reconcile with the regime, and the latter’s position on that, are related to several matters, the most important of which is the Turkish role in mediating between the two sides, and whether or not Ankara suggested doing so, and what Is Cairo's response?

Nafaa clarified that the issue no longer depends on the Brotherhood’s willingness to reconcile with the regime.

Rather, the most important thing is that the regime itself is ready for such a reconciliation.

And he went on to say that there are not yet any indications on the part of the regime that reconciliation will be accepted, despite it being required at the whole societal level.

And not just the Brotherhood, calling for setting a general framework for reconciliation that does not exclude anyone, as there are still leftists, liberals and nationalists in prisons alongside the Brotherhood detainees.

Nafaa pointed out that the regime does not seem ready yet for such demands, which the national forces had previously called a lot, explaining that we did not feel any kind of response on the part of the regime, and its policies remained based on the fact that those who violated it hate their homelands and violate them.

He also saw that Mounir's talk about reconciliation was supposed to be dealt with away from the media;

However, he added that the Brotherhood’s acting guide’s invitation "may be a message to the Turkish regime to play the role of mediator."

Nafaa expected that the Turkish regime would not volunteer to reconcile the Brotherhood and the regime.

Unless it is confirmed that the latter is ready for that, and in accordance with Turkish interests, stressing that dialogue between the Brotherhood and the Sisi regime will not be a condition for reconciliation between Cairo and Ankara, which will proceed according to their own interests.

On the beneficiaries of the reconciliation in Egypt, Nafaa affirmed that it will represent an important development that has implications for easing the tension in the country and preparing for the release of detainees of various orientations.

Far-reaching effect

In turn, the researcher specializing in the affairs of Islamic movements and groups, Mustafa Zahran, went on to say that the Cairo and Ankara talks will have a long-term impact and developments on the scene, which are not fast, indicating that the rapprochement between the two countries dates back to two years past, and will not affect the Brotherhood file. As it is too early to talk about any direct implications in this regard.

He explained that the Brotherhood's file will come as soon as relations are strengthened and there is an activity for the Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement, considering that the acting guide of the Brotherhood comes "to move away from the negative impact of the Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement on the group, and not to approach the positive influence."

Zahran explained that Turkey could play a positive role in resolving the reconciliation file.

However, the negative impact is the Brotherhood’s fear that the rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara will cast a negative shadow over it. Consequently, Mounir went to the file on his own, after he was intransigent about the issue of talking with the regime.

With regard to the proposal to activate reconciliation or try to send a message to the regime from Munir, the Egyptian researcher considered that the Brotherhood “does not have papers to pressure the regime in order to obtain rights or concessions, and therefore its position is very weak, while the main beneficiaries of reconciliation remain prisoners, without a doubt. And their families. "

Regarding the regime's position on this call, Zahran said, "The group is long overdue, and therefore does not have effective mechanisms for negotiating gains," indicating that the regime will not go to initiatives now.

However, with time, in light of the deepening of ties with Turkey, this may reflect positively on the file of Brotherhood prisoners.