Instead of the baby boom, the collapse of the birth rate in France due to Corona

According to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies, only 53,900 babies were born in France in January, 13% less than the previous year.

The low birth rate is mainly linked to economic and health conditions.

In a report published in the French newspaper "Le Monde" (lemonde), the writer Adrian Senecate notes that in the spring of 2020, expectations were foreshadowing a "baby boom" following the first national quarantine, but after a year has passed, the birth rate records a significant decline in France. According to data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies on Thursday, February 25.

Only 53,900 children were born in the country in January, while 62,180 children were born in the same month a year ago, and the decline is estimated at 13%.

Demographers expected these numbers, because this is the first full month that allows measuring the impact of the health crisis on the birth rate, with a delay of 9 months (the first quarantine began on March 17, 2020).

These figures clearly confirm the first 7% decline in births observed last December, as a result of the first 15 days of quarantining the country.

In times of crisis, some couples decide to postpone their childbearing plan until a later time (French)

Worried about the future

The writer adds that these numbers are huge, even in light of the continuous decline in the birth rate in France for several years.

In 2019, for example, the decline was 0.7% compared to 2018.

Isabelle Robert, head of research and demographic studies at the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, explains that “we should return to the end (of the baby boom), in 1975, to notice a decrease,” similar to what was recorded in January 2020.

Experts linked the link between the epidemic and the low number of births in recent weeks, so that did not surprise them.

"Since the end of World War II, economic crises have often caused a drop in births," says Jill Besson, associate researcher at the National Institute for Demographic Studies.

According to this demographic expert, "This matter can be linked to anxiety and uncertainty about the future of periods of crisis, as some couples decide to postpone the childbearing plan to a later time."

The same could apply to families directly affected by the epidemic, because, for example, they lost a member of their family or work.

It may also apply to the rest of the families who are simply affected by the general circumstances.

Other factors more related to the health crisis may also have an impact, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

For example, medically supported reproductive centers were closed during quarantine from March to May, knowing that they account for about 3% of births in France every year, according to a study conducted by the National Institute for Demographic Studies and published in 2018.

Concerns about possible transmission of the Coronavirus from mother to child contribute to postponement of pregnancy (German)

Corona transmission concerns to the child

Among other factors, too, we find concerns about the possible transmission of the Coronavirus from mother to child, a phenomenon that has become clear today that it is rare although it is possible, but this was not known in March 2020.

Baby boom after the crisis?

Although the data are insufficient to accurately analyze this decline in the birth rate, all indications are that this phenomenon is not limited to France.

In the United States, specialists also predict a "birth rate collapse", rather than a baby boom.

In other parts of Europe, the same causes can produce the same effects as in France, but to varying degrees.

Demographer Gilles Besson predicts that "it is likely that countries such as France that adopt advanced social policies will not be affected the most."

But Italy and Spain, which already have a low birth rate, and where family support is weaker, could see a more pronounced decline in births.

However, no one realizes how widespread the phenomenon is in the long run.

Demographer Gilles Besson: Traditionally, the crisis does not stop births, but it postpones them (French)

Robert Bobby of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies said, "We do not yet know whether this decrease in the number of births in January will be a permanent trend or a temporary phenomenon."

Besson warns that since the health crisis has been going on for a year, "we can expect a decrease in the number of births in 2021 compared to 2020."

But the matter may change sooner or later. According to the researcher Besson, "Traditionally, a crisis does not stop births, but postpones them."

The question remains whether there will be an increase in births when the epidemic ends, or it will permanently discourage those who plan to expand their families.