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Berlin (dpa) - The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has revised its growth forecast for Germany downwards in view of the pandemic development.
With a view to the measures against the virus, economists are only expecting economic growth of 3.0 percent for the current year, as economic expert Claus Michelsen said.
In December, the scenario envisaged growth of 3.8 percent.
"We assume that we will experience a third wave of pandemics," said Michelsen.
From the point of view of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Germany started the new year with a damper: The institute is assuming a minus of 2.7 percent in the first quarter due to the corona lockdown.
Looking at the year as a whole, the Kiel economists are much more optimistic: The current forecast assumes a 3.7 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for Germany.
So far, the Kiel researchers had expected an increase of 3.1 percent.
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The reason is therefore the industrial economy, which benefits from foreign business, as the IfW announced on Thursday.
The institute now expects growth of 4.8 percent for 2022.
The DIW also assesses the situation for German industry better because important export markets in the USA and China are picking up speed again.
The service sectors, on the other hand, are still badly hit.
The measures taken by the federal and state governments would make openings and closings dependent on certain threshold values for the seven-day incidence.
This indicates how many people per 100,000 inhabitants were newly infected with the coronavirus within a week.
This approach leads to a “stop and go” in the economy, which has to adjust to openings and closings every few weeks.
"That promotes uncertainty," said DIW economist Michelsen.
That will also affect the bankruptcy numbers.
The suspension of the obligation to register for insolvency in the past year has so far only obscured the bankruptcy process.
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"We also expect for this year that certain bankruptcies will be made up that did not materialize last year, so that we can assume that the bankruptcy rate will go up in the order of 20 to 30 percent," said Michelsen.
The institute pointed out that it recently affected not only small companies, but also larger medium-sized companies with many employees, especially in the fashion trade.
In Germany, some measures to contain the coronavirus were relaxed at the beginning of March.
The number of people from different households who are allowed to meet has increased in many places.
The retail trade can again receive more customers.
From the DIW's point of view, it would have been better to wait with the easing and keep the incidence figures down.
A constant opening and closing could have been avoided in this way.
The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH) again assumes that the easing led to an increase in economic mobility, but also in new infections and deaths.
The expected increase in economic mobility by a good 10 percentage points should increase the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25 percent, according to a statement from the institute on Thursday.
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© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210318-99-879233 / 2
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