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Triumph for the Greens, nice speeches at the SPD and a debacle for the CDU: This is how the results of the three largest parties in the state elections in the southwest on Sunday can be summed up.
But what do the election results mean for Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate?
In Rhineland-Palatinate, ruled by Malu Dreyer (SPD), the starting point seems clear.
The 60-year-old had already emphasized before the election that she would prefer to continue the traffic light coalition with the Greens and the FDP.
According to the preliminary result, this is feasible.
The SPD, with its popular head of government, won the preliminary result with 35.7 percent of the vote (2016: 36.2).
The CDU with its top candidate Christian Baldauf, on the other hand, slipped to 27.7 percent (31.8).
It was followed by the Greens with 9.3 percent (5.3), AfD with 8.3 (12.6) and the FDP with 5.5 percent (6.2).
Free voters will move into the state parliament with 5.4 percent (2.2).
The distribution of seats: SPD 39, CDU 31, Greens 10, AfD 9, FDP 6 and Free Voters 6.
Dreyer announced early talks on the new edition of the traffic light coalition on Sunday evening.
And also in the opinion of the Trier political scientist Uwe Jun there is “no real alternative”.
"The traffic light coalition will most likely come together as a coalition formation in the next legislative period," said Jun of the dpa news agency in Mainz.
"They worked well together here for five years."
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The “trio” has been rather harmonious in the past.
The coalition led by Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD) also stood together “more or less” during the election campaign.
"So it was a comparatively harmonious alliance, so that there is no reason for any of the coalition parties not to try that again for the next few years."
The situation in Baden-Württemberg is more diffuse. There the Greens achieved a nationwide record result of 32.6 percent (2016: 30.3) with Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann.
The previously co-ruling CDU fell in its former stronghold to 24.1 percent (27.0).
The SPD landed at 11 percent (12.7), the FDP at 10.5 (8.3) and the AfD at 9.7 percent (15.1).
The distribution of seats: Greens 58, CDU 42, SPD 19, FDP 18 and AfD 17. The 72-year-old Kretschmann, the first and only Prime Minister of the Greens for ten years, announced that he would hold talks with all parties except the AfD about possible alliances.
One thing is certain: After their march through, the Greens can eliminate their coalition partners.
The choice is a continuation of the green-black coalition and a traffic light with SPD and FDP.
The severely weakened CDU wants to stay in government.
But the SPD and Liberals are also ready.
The race can begin.
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Kretschmann was happy about the record result on Sunday evening, but did not want to commit to an alliance yet.
Talks should begin next week.
On Wednesday, the Greens and the CDU meet, followed by meetings with the SPD and FDP on Friday.
On this Monday, however, the committee meetings of the parties in Berlin and Stuttgart are first.
Greens parliamentary leader Andreas Schwarz has already formulated conditions for a coalition: "The implementation of an immediate climate protection program is our top priority," he told the dpa news agency in Stuttgart.
That must include: "More electricity from sun and wind in Baden-Württemberg, more environmentally friendly mobility and an ambitious climate protection law."
FDP top candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke relies on a traffic light.
"Now there are two options: keep going with green-black or go to new shores with a reform coalition," he told the dpa.
He received support from an unfamiliar source.
The Green Youth in the Southwest declared that “the CDU's lack of plan and vision” disqualified it as a renewed coalition partner.
"We want a progressive government," said Sarah Heim, spokeswoman for the Green Youth.
Majorities outside the CDU are needed for this.
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Kretschmann wants a "reliable and stable coalition".
In terms of calculation, these would be green-black and traffic lights alike.
Above all, the Greens want to accelerate climate protection.
Since the CDU has slowed down at one point or another in the past five years, Green Country Leader Oliver Hildenbrand even spoke of a "block on the leg".
But it has not been said whether that would be better with the FDP in one traffic light.
One thing is clear: both the CDU and the SPD and FDP absolutely want to join the government.
That should play into the cards of the Greens when it comes to their substantive demands.
With his good contacts to Kretschmann, CDU country chief Thomas Strobl should prevent the party from ending up in the opposition alongside the AfD.
What speaks against Green-Black is that the Greens, SPD and FDP in the federal government would like to show that there can also be a majority outside the Union.
“The odds are 50:50,” says a leading Green man.
And Frank Brettschneider, political expert from the University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim, says: "The CDU should allow more in terms of climate protection and also in the ministerial posts." A new edition of green-red is barely possible.
Mathematically, the newly founded climate list of the Greens and the SPD could have screwed up the formation of a government.
The new party got 0.9 percent of the vote.
Scientists: Coalitions in the southwest can be a signal for the federal government
From the point of view of the Freiburg political scientist Ulrich Eith, the election results in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate can be an omen for the federal election.
If governments were formed in both countries without the participation of the CDU, that would be a damper for the new party leader Armin Laschet, Eith told the dpa.
If, on the other hand, a green-black alliance should remain in Baden-Württemberg, that would mean a unique selling point and would be a model for a new coalition option in the federal government after the election in autumn.
This point will play a lesser role in the exploratory talks and coalition negotiations, said the expert.
More important are pragmatic aspects: that it is easier and faster to find an agreement with one partner than with two other parties.
In addition, it was about content-related criteria: The past legislative period had shown that the Greens and CDU had a lot in common in economic and financial policy.
“This coalition also supported it,” said Eith.
Other issues that were still visible as reform initiatives under green-red from 2011 to 2016 were less prominent.
The researcher named integration and education policy and the advancement of women as examples.
Especially since even in times of Corona there is a realization among the population that there are also other pressing questions such as climate protection, social equality, structural change in the automotive industry and digitization.
Therefore, from Eith's point of view, an extension of Green-Black would not make sense merely in the sense of an extension of a well-known coalition.
It would not be enthusiastic to continue as it was under the “pandemic fight label”, he said.
For the CDU in the southwest, the researcher's focus is on coming to terms with the renewed loss of voice.
“There are a lot of questions,” said Eith.
Even at the beginning of the campaign, the top candidate Eisenmann was known to few.
And even in the course of time, even Christian Democrats would have preferred Kretschmann as Prime Minister.
The CDU and its campaign team had to ask themselves why the election campaign was continued to focus on one person instead of dealing with Kretschmann's “reputation bonus” thematically with economic policy, for example.
"That was perhaps not the most promising decision."
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In three election campaigns, the CDU acted politically and strategically unhappy, analyzed Eith.
It has never paid off to oppose Chancellor Angela Merkel's (CDU) policy - neither in 2016 on refugee policy, nor now on the subject of education and the question of opening schools in the corona pandemic.
The CDU must recognize "where the added value of a government led by Kretschmann lies for CDU voters".
For the Greens, on the other hand, the question of a successor arises with a view to the 72-year-old Kretschmann.
According to Eith, it is not a problem that the footsteps grow from election victory to election victory.
"You can grow into it." Kretschmann himself only developed into the state father in office.
"But I do believe that Kretschmann will and should remain in office for the greater part of the legislature," said Eith.
"That's what people chose him for."