For the first time since the turn of the millennium, deliveries of major weapons systems did not increase.

However, global trade has remained at its highest level since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union collapsed.

At present, it is not possible to determine whether there has been a trend break in the global arms trade.

- It is too early to say whether the rapid growth of arms transfers in the last two decades is over, says Pieter D. Wezeman, at Sipri's research program for weapons and military spending in Solna.

Sipri measures trend indicator value (TIV) over five-year periods.

The method is based on measuring military capabilities rather than the value of arms purchases.

Photo: SVT Design, source Sipri

Covid can affect

To avoid individual years making mistakes in the statistics, the researchers compare between five-year periods.

They have been doing this since 1981, during the Cold War, when the superpowers armed themselves enormously.

Sipri's research shows that during the last two five-year periods (2011-2015 and 2016-2020), the global arms trade stopped trading.

Sipri's researchers do not rule out a certain covid effect in 2020 that could have an effect on the statistics for an entire five-year period.

- The economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic may, for example, cause some countries to re-evaluate their arms imports in the coming years.

At the same time, however, several countries have signed major arms contracts in the midst of a burning pandemic, Wezeman said in the statement.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (left), Qatar Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani (center) and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (right) meet in Qatar's capital Doha.

Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense, AFP March 11, 2021

The Middle East is rusting

But imports to the Middle East went against the flow and increased by 25 percent during the same period.

This was mainly due to the very strong armaments of Saudi Arabia (+61 percent), Egypt (+136 percent) and Qatar (+361 percent).

"Ongoing wars in Yemen and Libya, rivalries between countries in the Gulf region, threats against Iran and rising tensions over oil and gas reserves in the Mediterranean are important drivers of demand for weapons in the region," says Pieter Wezeman.