In the new round of defense costs between South Korea and the United States, the proportion of


　　South

Korea's commitments hit a record high.

Why did South Korea accept being "ripped off"?

　　Finishing touch

　　Draw out "bills" several times the original amount, and angrily "leave" only an hour after the opening of the negotiation, and give thousands of Korean employees "unpaid leave"... In recent years, in order to get South Korea to pay the amount With the ever-increasing defensive expenditure of the US military in South Korea, it is not new for the United States to "rip apart" with its Asian allies.

However, in the new round of negotiations held this week, South Korea and the United States have rarely reached a new agreement quickly.

The sharp-eyed South Korean media found that the amount of defense costs that South Korea needs to pay not only hit a record high, but the rate of increase even exceeded that of another "hard-core ally" of the United States-Japan.

What does the Moon Jae-in government want to sign such an agreement?

　　The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 10th that South Korea and the United States have completed the ninth round of negotiations and reached a final agreement on the 11th Special Agreement on the Sharing of Defense Costs of the US Army in South Korea.

In the agreement, the amount of defense expenses assumed by South Korea in 2021 increased by 13.9% compared with the previous year, and both the total amount and the rate of increase reached record highs.

　　The South Korean side had previously rejected the U.S. request that South Korea substantially increase its defense expenditures, and the relationship between South Korea and the United States has subsequently cooled down.

In this negotiation, although the proportion of defense expenses borne by South Korea has been reduced, it is still higher than the maximum increase that South Korea has insisted on before, which has made domestic public opinion dissatisfied.

Experts pointed out that South Korea will bear the high defense expenditure as a "voting certificate" for restoring relations with the United States.

　　As the strategic focus of the US "Indo-Pacific policy" shifts, the "sense of existence" of the Korea-US alliance has become weaker and weaker.

Faced with the call of the United States for its allies to jointly fight against the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region, will the South Korean government still "recklessly follow orders"?

　　Negotiations on defense costs "relaxed"

　　Consolidate the Korea-US alliance

　　The United States has stationed troops in South Korea since 1953.

In order to solve the problem of sharing the cost of US troops stationed in South Korea, South Korea and the United States have signed a "Special Agreement on the Sharing of Defense Costs" (hereinafter referred to as the "Agreement") every five years since 1991, and South Korea's cost sharing has increased year by year.

　　During the negotiation of the 10th "Agreement" in 2018, the U.S. suddenly requested the South Korean side to significantly increase the share of defense costs, but the South Korean side rejected it, which led to a deadlock in the negotiations. In the end, the two countries signed the "Agreement" with a one-year period.

The following year, South Korea and the United States continued to engage in fierce games in the follow-up agreement negotiations, and they did not reach an agreement until the 10th "Agreement" ceased to take effect.

　　On March 10 this year, South Korea and the United States finally reached the 11th "Agreement" after a "blank period" of more than a year, with a validity period of 5 years.

According to the agreement, South Korea’s defense expenditures in 2021 will be approximately 1.18 trillion won (approximately US$1.04 billion), an increase of 13.9% over the previous year, of which the 7.4% increase is related to the increase in South Korea’s defense spending, an increase of 6.5% This is related to the increase in labor costs for Korean employees of the US military in South Korea.

　　Liu Tiancong, deputy director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, introduced that the new "Agreement" stipulates that starting from 2021, the share of the salaries of Korean employees of the US military in South Korea will increase from 75% to the share of defense costs in South Korea. 87%, which is equivalent to the South Korean government "paying national wages" instead of paying the United States.

In addition, during the "blank period" of the 2020 agreement, defense costs will be frozen at the level of 2019.

　　"The Biden administration has shown a clear intention to win over South Korea in this negotiation, and the South Korean side is quite satisfied with this." Liu Tiancong said.

　　Liu Ming, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that in the 11th "Agreement", the Biden administration intends to simultaneously reflect the US's "taking care of allies" and South Korea's "responsible for the alliance relationship."

In order to solve the North-South Korea issue, South Korea has to rely on the security guarantees provided by the United States.

After the United States released its goodwill, South Korea chose to accept the slow growth of the defense cost share.

　　Sign the highest agreement in total history

　　Questioned by public opinion

　　After the signing of the 11th "Agreement" between the United States and South Korea, South Korea's share of defense spending increased by 13.9% this year, which is higher than the 13% negotiation "bottom line" that South Korea has been insisting on.

After the conclusion of the new agreement, South Korea’s negotiator Jeong Eun-fu said that the level of defense cost sharing reached by the two parties was “reasonable and fair”.

　　However, South Korean public opinion does not "buy it."

　　South Korea’s "Joongang Daily" reported that South Koreans recently held a press conference near the Blue House to condemn the new agreement, calling it "the most humiliating agreement in history."

Yonhap News Agency also reported that South Korean political groups called on the South Korean government to refuse to approve the new agreement and renegotiate with the United States.

　　The "Joongang Daily" survey found that in 2021, South Korea's defense expenditure ratio will reach 51%, which is higher than that of the United States, and will further increase to 59% by 2025.

In the future, the US military stationed in South Korea "is not based on the US budget, but on the money of South Korean taxpayers."

　　South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo reported that South Korea’s annual growth rate was previously mainly linked to price increases, with an annual growth rate of 0.4% to 0.5%.

The newly signed 11th "Agreement" stipulates for the first time that South Korea's annual apportionment will be linked to the defense expenditure of that year.

According to South Korea’s 2021-2025 National Defense Mid-term Plan, South Korea’s defense expenditures will grow at an average annual growth rate of 6.1% in the next five years, which means that South Korea’s contribution may increase by 5% to 8% annually, which is a substantial increase over the previous period.

　　The Chosun Ilbo pointed out that the signing of the new agreement is regarded by the South and the United States as a symbol of stabilizing the presence of the US military on the Korean peninsula and "restoring the South Korean-US alliance", laying conditions for the two countries to concentrate on resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

However, there are also views that the agreement will be the starting point for the United States to request South Korea to purchase more American weapons and equipment.

A source said that the Biden administration is following the policies of the previous government and setting out a "weapon purchase list" to South Korea.

　　Liu Ming believes that in recent years, South Korea has proposed its own national defense, independently developed and manufactured more weapons and equipment, and requested the United States to transfer war command.

Regarding the path to solving the North-South Korean issue, the Common Democratic Party, which is in charge of the South Korean government, tends to adopt a policy of peaceful engagement.

The United States not only opposes the South Korean government’s policy on the Korean issue, but also delays the transfer of war command in various ways.

　　Liu Ming pointed out that South Korea is a medium-sized country, unable to rely on its own strength to deal with the East Asian environment, and will increasingly rely on US military power.

Although there are conflicts between South Korea and the United States, such as inconsistent strategic positioning and unbalanced national strength, South Korea cannot break away from its dependence on the South Korean-US alliance and can only accept the various demands made by the United States.

　　"Pay the bill" for the US military outside the Korean peninsula

　　Cited domestic concerns

　　Liu Ming introduced that the United States implemented its regional strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, mainly using the "four-party security dialogue" established by the United States, Japan, India, and Australia and the US-Japan-Korea alliance as the two pillars.

Among them, the "four-party security dialogue" is the basis of the US "Indo-Pacific policy." After the United States regards the major powers of the Asia-Pacific region as its primary strategic competitor, this mechanism has become more significant.

In the US-Japan-Korea alliance system, Japan is the "security anchor" of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, while the position of the South Korea-US alliance in the US Asia-Pacific policy is relatively low.

South Korea is constrained by the North Korean issue and cannot cooperate with the United States to play a strategic role outside the Korean Peninsula.

　　However, the United States may have come up with another model for its allies to "work."

Yonhap News Agency reported that during the negotiation of the 11th "Agreement" between South Korea and the United States, there was no discussion on issues related to the funding of US troops stationed in South Korea to perform tasks outside the region.

As the US government strengthens the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and the strategic flexibility of the US military, the US military stationed in South Korea is likely to perform tasks outside the Korean Peninsula.

Some people point out that the United States may require that the funds for “outbound” missions outside the Korean peninsula be included in the defense expenses.

　　Not only is it unable to achieve national defense independence, but also "pays" for military operations outside the Korean peninsula. The recent trend of the Korea-US alliance has caused much concern in South Korean public opinion.

Liu Ming pointed out that South Korea is unwilling to increase its conflicts with major powers in the Asia-Pacific region while catering to the strategic policies of the United States, but the defense expenses it pays may be directly used to "target" major powers in the Asia-Pacific region, causing doubts in South Korea.

　　Liu Tiancong believes that the South Korean government is unwilling to "choose sides" between the United States and the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region. What choice South Korea will make in the future will depend on the government's strategic vision and political wisdom.

　　Beijing reporter Lingxi, Nanfang Daily

　　Intern Fang Anran Planning: Zhang Yin