The largest annual decline in population since the World War
The departure of one million immigrants changes the economic and social equation in Britain
The cost of housing in British cities is high.
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When my family immigrated to London from the United States in the early seventies, things were going against the tide, as the population of central London decreased by a fifth in that decade, but since then, we have grown accustomed to continuous population growth, especially in London and the southeast of England, Driven by an influx of people from abroad, and a rise in life expectancy.
Over the past 20 years, the UK has averaged 400,000 annual population growth.
Despite an aging population, it has driven growth in the workforce and the economy as a whole, and in the same period, the UK has created nearly six million additional jobs.
That will change in 2020.
With the number of deaths due to the "Covid-19" virus rising to the highest level in a century, and the decline in birth rates, it seems likely that more people have died than those who were born for the first time since 1976. The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that one million people They may have left Britain by the end of 2020. This would represent, by far, the largest annual decline in the resident population since World War II, with London particularly hard hit.
Collecting and interpreting data during a pandemic is extremely difficult, and these actual numbers may be high or low, significantly.
There is no doubt that this reversal in migration trends was large, real and surprising.
Neither Theresa May's hostile policies nor Britain's exit from the European Union could achieve this goal, but Corona did.
On the one hand, this should not be surprising, as the United Kingdom was among the countries most affected in the world, both health and economic, due to the first wave of the epidemic.
Meanwhile, London, where the UK's immigrant population is concentrated, was worse off, with more deaths than any other region, and an even greater rise in the numbers of benefit and compensation claimants.
Moreover, some of the sectors most affected by the closures, including food services, retail and hospitality, also rely heavily on workers from abroad.
Costly survival
Most of the new immigrants live in rented housing, which makes leaving easier, while staying more expensive, in times of crisis.
And if someone loses his job, or finds himself on unpaid leave, why would he risk his health and his bank balance, while having the option to return to a safer place, where he could be with family and friends?
There may be other types of immigrants, such as students and seasonal workers, and those here on short-term assignments, have also returned to their countries of origin.
But what will happen next?
Under one scenario, a vaccine-determined recovery would lead to a rebound in the economy.
And just as London was, from a health and economic perspective, perhaps the worst place in Europe, in the spring of 2020, it may be the best in the summer of 2021. Many of those who left will return, either to their old jobs or to new companies, as new companies fill the gaps in Sectors such as restaurants.
But it is not difficult to construct a more bleak alternative scenario.
And while the economy in general will likely recover, relatively well-off families may spend the money they saved in lockdown.
Also, jobs, especially in service sectors in cities, such as cafes and restaurants, may not be thriving, and many former travelers may decide to continue working from home for some or most of the time.
The restrictions imposed on international travel will make immigration more difficult, and companies, especially hotels, arts and culture, that depend on tourism will be affected.
International students, afraid of last year's experience, may stray altogether, or choose cheaper online courses.
Britain's exit from the European Union was not the main driver of reverse migration over the past year, which was largely concentrated in the first few months of the epidemic, and it appears to have affected immigrants from outside the European Union, as well as Europeans.
But it could certainly help convince people not to return to Britain.
While many of those who have left will have the right to return, others will have only "pre-settlement status," or none at all.
The British Home Office was vague about their rights.
Of course, the new post-Brexit system will make it harder for new immigrants from the Union to come here.
What does this mean for our society and our economy?
Some changes may be welcome, fewer people mean less pressure on housing and public services, and perhaps, at least for some, affordable housing.
In fact, rents in city centers appear to be declining, even as the housing market in general is booming.
And if unemployment rates remain high, especially among the youth, why do we need or want more people?
Great dependence
But that's only one side of the story.
High housing costs and congested public transportation are problems of success.
Lower immigration may ease it at first, but it also means lower growth and lower tax revenues, as the Budget Office made clear in its forecast, last week.
And we do not depend on immigration, just for agricultural workers, cafes and restaurants, but, too, for tech start-ups, creative industries and universities, the most dynamic sectors of the UK economy.
More generally, migration created jobs, boosted innovation and productivity, and made us all richer.
During the pandemic, our public services, and other sectors that we have recognized as "essential", often employ immigrants, and this is not just London's problem.
History indicates that London's economy is resilient and will recover, even if it has changed, and this is not true for other parts of the country, especially those in which the population has already stagnated or declined.
And while, fortunately, death rates will drop with the end of the epidemic, population aging will not disappear, and without immigration, the UK workforce will shrink over the coming decades, with more retirees, who will need support and care.
However, the wider social impacts are important, too.
Britain will be less open, older, less mobile, less diversified and more isolated.
Ironically, this reversal comes just as our attitudes toward immigration appear to be shifting in a more positive direction.
But none of this is inevitable, and there is much the government can do.
For example, making it clear that those who have left temporarily, due to the pandemic, can return, and reduce the ridiculous and discriminatory fees for settlement and citizenship.
The new post-Brexit immigration system should make things easier for potential migrants from outside the European Union.
Although its effects are still largely uncertain, the government's decision to introduce residence visas to those coming from Hong Kong could be a major boost for global Britain or small England?
The choice remains ours.
Jonathan Burts: Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Royal College of London, and a former senior government employee.
400
A thousand is the average annual population growth for the UK over the past 20 years.
High housing costs and congestion in public transport are problems of success. Lower immigration may ease it at first, but it also means lower growth and lower tax revenues, as the Budget Office made clear in its forecast, last week.
A vaccine-determined recovery will lead to a rebound in the economy. And just as London was, from a health and economic perspective, perhaps the worst place in Europe, in the spring of 2020, it could be the best in the summer of 2021.
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