President Barack Obama began the historic relocation of US military forces near Russia's borders - to the Baltics and Poland, among others.

Donald Trump continued on this path, despite his critical statements about NATO.

Other NATO countries have also taken out military insurance in Russia's immediate area since then.

But Russia has a military advantage, FOI estimates.

- If the time is short for Western defense preparations, Russia will have a clear advantage in our immediate area, especially on the ground, says Krister Pallin, project manager for the report.

He continues:

- That advantage lasts a good while, at least to the US can come here with larger ground forces, which takes at least a couple of months.

Krister Pallin, project manager of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, FOI.

Photo: FOI

Simulated war games

FOI has made war games to assess NATO and their partners' military balance of power in relation to Russia. 

The war game simulated, among other things, Russian attacks on the Baltics through Belarus.

The conclusion in 2020 is the same as in 2017 - despite NATO's assurances.

- If Russia attacked the Baltics at short notice, they have a pretty good prospect of succeeding with it.

The US Army is training with Bradley combat vehicles in Pabrade, Lithuania.

Photo: US Army, Alexandra Shea, January 23, 2021

Increased defense spending

Despite NATO's increased military spending and an increasingly advanced position near Russia, there has been no major change in the balance of power.

- In general, the picture is quite similar both in terms of both availability and quality of the joints.

You have an advanced presence now that you did not have in 2014, which is gradually getting better.

And there are more fairly simple measures that can improve the odds for the west side.

However, NATO's strengths do not need to increase.

They must be able to act faster against a number of different possible attack threats, FOI assesses.

B-1 Lancer bomber en route to Europe from Eielson Air Base in Alaska, USA.

Photo: US Air Force, Ted Daigle 14 September 2020

Strong air force and navy

The main strength is superiority in the air and at sea.

The big problem, however, is that NATO and its partners are spread over a large number of countries.

They have "low readiness and are not configured and trained for war," writes FOI in the report.

The nuclear weapons of the United States, France, Great Britain and Russia were not used in the war game. 

- The game did not include any side deploying nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, nuclear threats were issued, including against Sweden and Finland to keep us out of the conflict.