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Bonn / Munich (dpa) - According to a new forecast for the population development up to the year 2040, the cities and districts in southern Bavaria will mostly continue to grow.
In contrast, a number of municipalities in Franconia have to reckon with a shrinking population.
This emerges from a study published on Tuesday by the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research in Bonn.
The researchers used the 2017 population as a basis.
The study confirms the trend of similar calculations in the past.
According to the Federal Institute's estimate, almost all districts and urban districts in Upper Bavaria and Swabia will continue to grow, only in the district of Dillingen the number of residents is expected to stagnate (minus 0.1 percent).
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The state capital itself is expected to grow by 4.8 percent by 2040, less strongly than some of the surrounding areas of Munich.
The districts of Dachau, Ebersberg and Erding are expected to grow by around 15 percent.
A significant increase in population is also expected in Augsburg (plus 11.7 percent).
In Eastern Bavaria there are also strong growth regions such as Landshut with almost 15 percent plus or the Regensburg area with an increase of around ten percent.
On the other hand, a shrinking population is expected in the Bavarian Forest and the northern Upper Palatinate.
In Swiss francs, strong growth (plus 9.5 percent) is only expected for Fürth.
Other municipalities between Nuremberg and Bamberg are also still in positive territory.
A number of northern Bavarian districts such as Kronach (minus 14.3 percent) or Wunsiedel (minus 13.6 percent), on the other hand, have to reckon with, in some cases, sharply falling population numbers.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210309-99-749933 / 2
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Population forecast for individual counties
Communication from the Federal Institute