Benefited from the intersection of internal and external factors
After 10 years of resentment and isolation, Assad to a new presidential term
Assad will be almost the only candidate in the upcoming elections.
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Destruction covered all parts of Syria.
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Despite the destruction, death and displacement that struck his country and still, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has withstood the revolution, isolation, war and resentment.
Ten years after the outbreak of popular movements against him, Assad is preparing again, months later, to run in the midst of presidential elections, the results of which appear to be decided in his favor.
A decade ago, popular demonstrations erupted in a number of Arab countries against authoritarianism, oppression and poverty.
Only Assad, who many expected would fall under street pressure weeks after the start of the popular uprising against him in mid-March 2015, retained his position.
Experts and politicians say that he benefited from the intersection of internal factors, most notably his control of the security and military forces, and external, chiefly the West’s reluctance to use force against him, in exchange for decisive military support from Iran and then Russia, to stay.
In addition, patience and time investment are well known in the Assad family, which has ruled Syria since the beginning of the seventies.
When the peaceful protests began, Assad chose to suppress them by force.
Soon, a destructive conflict turned into a destructive conflict, exacerbated by the escalating influence of the fighting organizations, and the interference of several external parties, who contributed to the complexity of the scene.
Al-Assad classified everyone who took up arms against him as a "terrorist."
Ten years of war resulted in the killing of more than 380,000 people, the arrest of tens of thousands, the destruction of infrastructure and the depletion of the economy, and the displacement and displacement of more than half of the population.
Today, government forces control about two-thirds of the country's area, while the people are suffering from a severe economic crisis, with the depletion of state resources and the repercussions of international sanctions imposed on the regime and its pillars.
Analysts believe that al-Assad, who succeeded his late father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, inherited from him a cold temper and a mysterious personality, and studied patience at his hand, and that played a key role in his "steadfastness".
Veteran Lebanese politician Karim Pakradouni told AFP: “After the whole world demanded his departure years ago, and thought that he would fall, today he wants to find a solution with him. Assad knew how to invest the time factor.”
Since the outbreak of the conflict, Assad has not shied away from declaring his great confidence in the ability to win, even in his most vulnerable moments.
Pakradouni, who for a long time played the role of mediator between the Syrian regime and Lebanese parties during the crises in the two countries, added: “Assad did not take any step back, he clung to all his positions without any modification, and was able to take back most of the Syrian lands by military force.”
According to Pakradouni, the Syrian army has proven that “it is an ideological and regular army that managed to continue and protect the regime in the worst situations, and it did not turn against it like in other countries, and this is what made Assad an exceptional model in what is known as the (Arab Spring) revolutions.”
The army, which is the most prominent weapon of the dictatorial regimes, remained intact and loyal to the Assad regime, despite tens of thousands of soldiers defecting from it at the beginning of the conflict, which gave Assad a golden opportunity to remain steadfast, unlike other Arab presidents, some of whom resigned, fled, or were killed, under street pressure.
Thomas Perret, a researcher at the Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Islamic World, believes that the internal factors that contributed to Assad’s survival in power can be summarized with one title: “The continued loyalty of the army leadership, which has been strengthened over decades by Assad’s relatives and followers” from the Alawite sect to which he belongs.
They constituted "probably more than 80% of the officers in 2011, and occupied practically every influential position" within the army.
The role of the character
A Syrian researcher in Damascus said, with reservations about his name being revealed to "France Press": "The role of Assad's personality in his survival cannot be denied, and the persistence and rigor he knows about, as he was able to restrict all decisions in his own hands and make the army completely with him."
Meanwhile, the regime’s structure did not produce leading figures who could play a prominent role in confronting it. Rather, they “blocked the way for any figure who tried to build a space for them” in the country's future, according to the same source.
An American "failure"
Al-Assad gambled on the complex structure of society with the existence of an ethnic division between Arabs and Kurds, and sectarianism between Sunnis, Alawites and minorities, most notably Christianity, which saw it as its protector, especially with the escalation of the role of Islamic and warring organizations.
The Syrian researcher considers that Assad “benefited from people's fear of chaos, and from the fear of his (Alawite) environment for its existence in the event of his fall, which made it desperate to defend him in defense of its existence."
He also benefited from the absence of effective political forces and the loss of hope in the role of the opposition.
In February 2012, while Assad's forces were losing ground, a group of "Friends of Syria" was formed, which included Western and Arab countries supporting the Syrian opposition.
Then, more than 100 countries recognized the National Coalition of Forces of the Syrian Revolution and Opposition as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people.
With the militarization of the conflict, the fighting factions multiplied, which were receiving support from different parties and countries with special agendas.
With the emergence of "ISIS" and its rule over large areas of the country, the demand for freedom and democracy dissipated behind terror.
Indirectly, he helped Assad present himself as fighting "terrorism."
At the same time, the political opposition has not produced an alternative leadership, which is credible interlocutors for the international community.
While the opposition factions were demanding their allies with weapons and military support, similar to the NATO air intervention that helped the Libyan armed opposition to undermine the Gaddafi regime, the West was terrified of the repetition of the Libya experience, as the chaos began to expand.
With the militant organization attracting thousands of foreign fighters to Syria and neighboring Iraq starting in 2014, and carrying out bloody attacks in several countries, the focus of the international community, led by Washington, has focused on supporting the Kurdish factions and their allies, in confronting the militants rather than supporting Assad's opponents.
And Assad became more certain that American planes would not fly in the skies of Damascus after the former US President, Barack Obama, retreated from carrying out punitive strikes following the killing of about 1,400 people near Damascus in the summer of 2013, as a result of a sarin gas attack, which Damascus accused of carrying out.
And ended up with an American-Russian agreement to dismantle the Syrian chemical arsenal.
Pierre explains that Obama "was elected on the basis of a promise to withdraw from Iraq, and that is why his administration hesitated to return to the Middle East" from the gate of Syria.
He added that the US administration "has defined its interests in the region on a small scale and in an isolated manner, that is, combating terrorism, hence its intervention against the (ISIS) organization and weapons of mass destruction."
Equation impossible
On the other hand, Assad received decisive support from Iran, which trained and recruited armed groups that fiercely defended the regime, including the Lebanese Hezbollah.
So did Russia, which defended the regime in the Security Council and supported it economically and then militarily, especially with aerial bombardment.
Russia specifically, according to Pierret, seized "a historic opportunity to regain its position as a great power, by filling the strategic void left by Obama's partial disengagement from the region."
And after the Western countries, led by Washington, stressing on every occasion the need for Assad to step down, the attention of the international community has focused on reaching a political settlement through the gate of the Constitutional Committee, which includes representatives of the government and the opposition, and has been holding meetings for 18 months in Geneva.
The United Nations hoped that the results of the committee's work would pave the way for the development of a new constitution, on the basis of which the presidential elections expected to be held mid-year, under its supervision.
However, its delegate to Damascus, Geir Pedersen, told reporters this month that the last meeting was a "missed opportunity" and was "disappointment."
He acknowledged before the Security Council "the failure of the political track."
Damascus deliberately "chopped up time" during the meetings of the Constitutional Committee, which a Western diplomatic source described to "AFP" as a "joke."
"We will see Assad organizing elections this summer, according to the current constitution," he says.
The regime and its godfathers (Russia and Iran) want to explain to the world: Well the elections are going and the game is over.
Can you please open checkbooks and finance the infrastructure that we have bombed over the last 10 years? ”
Al-Assad will practically be the only candidate in the upcoming elections.
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Analysts believe that Bashar al -
Assad, who succeeded his late father Hafez al -
Assad in 2000, he
inherited his foul cold and mysterious personality, and studied under his hand in patience, and played a key role in «steadfastness».
Assad received decisive support from Iran, which trained and brought in armed groups that fiercely defended the regime, including the Lebanese Hezbollah. So did Russia, which defended the regime in the Security Council and supported it economically, and then militarily, especially with air strikes.
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