Beirut (AFP)

To support her family, Sandra al-Tawil sold her fridge and washing machine.

In a bankrupt Lebanon, she fears a subsidy reform that risks pushing more households into poverty.

Bread, fuel, transport: with a Lebanese pound in free fall, the prices of products, even subsidized ones, have increased, in a country where half of the population now lives in poverty.

"We are already tightening our belts. What are we going to eat if we can no longer buy rice or lentils?", The forty-something, mother of two, loses his temper.

Giving up a comfortable life in Dubai, she and her hairstylist husband decide to return to Lebanon, going on their own in 2019. With the economic collapse and the pandemic, the dream has turned into a nightmare.

"We got to a point where I had to sell my washing machine and my fridge (...) just to have our daily bread and pay the rent," she laments.

Her husband has found work.

An NGO provides them with food aid and pays school fees.

But the family remains on a razor's edge.

Sandra al-Tawil's story is interspersed with invective against the carelessness of corrupt leaders, unfazed by the urgency of the situation after having survived an unprecedented protest movement at the end of 2019. “We need a revolution that brings down people. heads, "she blurted.

Since 2019, Lebanon has experienced its worst economic crisis.

Unemployment has exploded, so has inflation.

The currency hit an all-time low, trading at 10,000 pounds to the dollar on the parallel market, and banks have imposed unprecedented draconian restrictions on savers.

- "Inflationists" -

The NGO Beit El-Baraka provides medical care and food aid to 226,000 people.

According to its founder Maya Ibrahimchah, the beneficiaries belong to the "middle class" which has collapsed.

"We are receiving hundreds of messages."

And the situation is likely to worsen.

Lebanon imports almost everything and the subsidies are a real safety valve.

But, seeing its "limited foreign exchange" reserves melt away, the Central Bank in February called for "an immediate plan to rationalize subsidies".

Kicking in touch, the government has not set a timetable.

The current system, funded to the tune of $ 437 million per month according to an estimate by the World Bank, covers imports of fuel, flour, medicines and also since mid-2020 a basket of around 300 products.

This helps to suppress prices in part: the Central Bank offers importers the official exchange rate of 1,507 pounds to the dollar, to cover most of the financing of imports.

Until when?

At the end of February, the central bank's reserves stood at $ 17.9 billion, according to its site.

The required reserves, which the institution refuses to touch, are 17.5 billion.

The World Food Program (WFP), for its part, warns against the "significant inflationary repercussions" of a reform, assuring that "the price of bread could increase by 1.5 or 3 times the current price, that of fuel by 4 , 5 ".

In 2020, WFP provided aid to 417,000 Lebanese and will soon support 50,000 families per month.

"To mitigate the effects of a lifting of subsidies, it is crucial to increase social assistance to the poorest."

- "50 dollars" -

A working note, sent to AFP by the Minister of the Economy Raoul Nehmé, mentions a gradual reform, with the payment of financial "aid" over several years.

As a first step, the subsidies on the basket of 300 products, bread and fuel will be removed.

Then will come a revision of the rates at Electricité du Liban.

In return, up to 80% of the population will receive a monthly allowance of $ 50 per adult - half per child - during the first year.

The amount, but also the percentage of beneficiaries, will be gradually revised downwards.

In the same vein, a loan of 246 million dollars from the World Bank will make it possible to finance allocations for nearly 800,000 Lebanese among the most disadvantaged.

With an unemployed son, times are tough for Nasser Jomaa.

"At some point we will no longer be able to buy what we eat on a daily basis," worries the fifty-something.

Driver, he earns 1.6 million pounds per month, today the equivalent of 160 dollars.

Before the crisis his salary was worth 1,000 dollars.

Like many, he remains skeptical about public aid.

"These are empty words, we have no faith in the state."

© 2021 AFP