Stratfor: Iran seeks, before negotiations, to increase pressure on America through its proxies in the region

In

an analytical report

, the US website Stratfor said that Iran is using its proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen to increase pressure on US interests in the Middle East, while it seeks to build its influence before resuming negotiations with Washington;

Therefore, it will reject any demands to abandon its militia network;

This increases the risk of further violence in conflict areas such as Iraq.

He also predicted in the report that Tehran would not abandon the powerful militia network it supports in the region, even if talks with Washington lead to an easing of sanctions.

He explained that Iran's support for regional proxies is a cornerstone of its national security strategy, which also provides Tehran with leverage against America.

Valuable offensive and defensive functions

He added that equipping, training, and politically supporting the militia network provides valuable offensive and defense functions for Iran, which is a weaker conventional military force than its counterparts, in part due to Western sanctions that prevent defense purchases.

Iran's relations with allied militias, according to the site, act as a kind of forward deployment in theaters like Syria and Iraq, where Iran wants to maintain access to key lands.

Tehran's relations with these militias have long bolstered its regional influence by nurturing its ties with Shiite and Sunni groups alike.

Aside from these basic functions, support for allied militias creates a security pressure point in places where US and Iranian interests overlap.

This provides Tehran with a way to demonstrate the regional power that Washington lacks, as well as a lever that can be pushed and pulled against the United States.

Biden's first military action

The air strikes, launched by Washington against Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in Syria last month, were the first military action by the administration of US President Joe Biden since he took office, and aimed to send a message to Iran, while the two governments approached possible negotiations, even Biden told reporters that the strikes Al-Jawiya sought to inform Iran that it could not act "with impunity."

But these raids also acted as a direct response to the growing threat that Iraqi militias pose to US forces in the Middle East, confirming that theater-proxy activity is an aspect of the multiple tensions between America and Iran, as well as important regional security, and is an issue in itself.

Demonstrators, supporters of "Kataib Hezbollah" and the Popular Mobilization Forces, raise the flags of the Phalangists on the walls of the American Embassy in the Green Zone in central Baghdad (activists)

The site continues its analysis, to say that Iran lacks full control over its allied militias.

This means that violence in proxy theaters will continue regardless of what happens in its negotiations with America.

All Iranian-backed militias have their own interests, local bases, and ideologies that motivate their behavior.

For example, the Houthi rebels in Yemen carry their anti-American and Saudi feelings, which have nothing to do with their ties to Iran.

Militias allied with Tehran also operate in various regional conflict zones;

This makes every theater a security threat in itself.

It gives her a reason for denial

This reality gives Iran a reasonable degree of denial to distance itself from militia attacks against the interests of America or its partners, which reduces the direct danger of these attacks that lead to an American escalation against Iran directly.

As Iran pressures America to offer sanctions relief, it will likely support its closest regional proxies to maintain an aggressive stance against Washington.

However, this risks deepening US pressure to address Iran's regional behavior in addition to its nuclear program.

Iran wants to keep sanctions relief negotiations focused on its nuclear program and not on Iran's regional behavior, including the proxy militia activity, the site said.

Tehran could direct and accelerate some acts of proxy violence against US targets.

To remind America of the influence it enjoys in the negotiations, as well as the amount of regional influence it enjoys.

full of dangers

But this is a risky strategy for Iran.

Because violent activity against the United States or its partners in the region may push Washington to demand Iranian concessions on its regional behavior, not just nuclear activity.

However, Iran will reject any US demands to abandon its regional proxy strategy, which serves multiple functions that go beyond merely granting Tehran negotiating power vis-à-vis America.

Iran's support for militias in theaters like Afghanistan and Yemen is of value to Tehran, but it is marginal compared to places like Syria, as this support for the Houthis is considered one of the least important regional relations for Iran, and thus it could be a factor in future negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

But the Houthis will continue their fight against the Yemeni government, America, Israel and Saudi Arabia, regardless of the level of Iranian support they keep.