Will North Korea collapse?... 'O''X' is not the right answer [Walk with reporter Ahn Jeong-sik and Pyongyang]

The theory of the collapse of North Korea, often referred to as the perspective of the conservatives, is a subject of constant debate.

These arguments, which seem plausible at first glance, do not know how and when the North Korean regime is unstable, however, it is difficult to lead to a convincing argument if it goes into a specific argument.

It is said that the economic situation that has not improved amid the international community's isolation has continued for decades, but North Korea succeeded in withstanding the ‘Affliction March’ in the mid-1990s, where hundreds of thousands to millions of people died of starvation.

It is clear that they cannot eat and live compared to the outside world, but there is no evidence that they will collapse.

Even military coups, often referred to as the most realistic way to collapse the regime, are unlikely to occur in North Korea.

This is because the party organizations are planted throughout the military organization, and the military commanders are closely monitored to prevent any other minds.

The civil revolution cannot be expected in North Korea.

North Korea's control system is more severe than any other country in history, and its residents are closely monitored.

North Koreans are well aware that any complaints or criticisms against the supreme leader are subject to death.

As long as this system of control is maintained, it is unlikely that the collapse of the system by mass protests will occur.

China, an alliance of North Korea, cannot exert enough pressure for the collapse of the North Korean regime.

At this point, it seems difficult for the Kim Jong-un regime to face a crisis that jeopardizes the existence of the regime in a short period of time.

Will

If so, will the dynasty totalitarian system of the Kim Il-sung family continue forever in the future?

It seems difficult to see it that way.

The continuation of the current North Korean regime means that the Kim Il-sung family continues to inherit from the hereditary and maintains the regime for several hundred years, but it is difficult for that to happen at the time of the 21st century.

Although Goryeo and Joseon continued as a hereditary dynasty system for several hundred years, that was because the dynasty system at that time was accepted as the truth of the times.

At the time of the 21st century, it is difficult to see that the hereditary dictatorship will continue for several hundred years.

In a single-person system like North Korea, where everything is concentrated on the top leader, there is always the possibility of instability if a change occurs in the top leader.

The top leader may have health problems, but it is unclear whether the successor who inherits power will show the image of a competent person even if it goes to the stage of promoting the succession as a child without health problems.

This is because inheritance is not a method of selecting a talented person from among many manpower pools as successors, but selecting a successor from a limited manpower pool called the child of the top leader.

Thus, the possibility that the hereditary dictatorship will become unstable arises whenever the powers are replaced.

North Korea may be thought of as a way of soft landing in the international community as the North Korean regime changes little by little.

Like China and Vietnam, it is a way to gradual unification by implementing reform and opening up and promoting exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas.

It's the most ideal way we can think of, but unless the Kim Il-sung family tries to let go of absolute power, North Korea's drastic reform and opening up will be difficult.

▶ [Walking with reporter Ahn Jeong-sik and Pyongyang] Can North Korea, North Korea, the country of Kim Il-sung, reform and open?

① The fact that

South Korea's policy toward North Korea varies from one regime to another, making it difficult to drive changes in North Korea also darkens the possibility of a soft landing in North Korea.

▶ [Walking with Reporter Ahn Jung-sik and Pyongyang] Why South Korea's North Korea Policy Is Difficult to Describe The Nuclear Issue There may be an opportunity to describe it later, but the fact that there is little possibility of North Korea's nuclear abandonment makes this prospect unclear.

It is difficult to predict the future of North Korea in the current situation.

It is not realistic to believe and wait for the theory of North Korea collapse, but it is also true that the instability of the one-man dictatorship exists.

Although a soft landing through gradual changes in North Korea is desirable, there are many questions about whether a soft landing is possible.

What we need at this point is not to fight over whether the North Korean collapse theory is correct or not, but to be prepared for all possible possibilities.

It is not practical to put weight on the theory of North Korean collapse, but it is not practical to reject the theory of North Korean collapse.

The policy toward North Korea, such as possible exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas, should be implemented according to the policy toward North Korea, but it is necessary to prepare silently for anything that has any potential regarding the future of North Korea.

Going to the debate over whether or not to choose is not desirable in terms of preparing for an uncertain future.

(Photo = Chosun Central News Agency, Yonhap News)