Jing Chunmei: Keep thinking in the heat of hydrogen energy
China News Weekly reporter/Yang Zhijie
Issued in the 985th issue of China News Weekly on March 1, 2021
"More than 30 prefectures and cities have issued hydrogen energy plans, and many hydrogen energy industrial parks have appeared everywhere, and the planned hydrogen energy industry has reached trillions of yuan. The risk of repeated industrial construction and disorderly competition is increasing."
On October 19, 2020, at the 2020 UNDP Hydrogen Energy Industry Conference, Vice Minister and Researcher Jing Chunmei of the Information Department of China International Economic Exchange Center issued a warning voice.
As one of China's official economic consulting agencies, the China International Economic Exchange Center has established a research group headed by Jing Chunmei, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Information, to study the development of hydrogen energy in China and provide suggestions for top-level design solutions.
In an exclusive interview with China News Weekly, Jing Chunmei said that hydrogen energy is an industry that tests the financial strength of local governments. Many places do not have a clear understanding of this, and the development of domestic hydrogen energy industry has a false fire phenomenon.
"It feels like a rush"
China News Weekly: In your opinion, what factors are driving the current boom of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Jing Chunmei: It can be said that the second wave of craze is coming.
The popularity of hydrogen energy is fundamentally inevitable for the progress of global hydrogen energy technology and the sustainable development of the industry over the years. In recent years, some local governments and car companies in my country have paid a lot of attention and investment in hydrogen energy.
The first wave of enthusiasm was mainly after Premier Li Keqiang visited Toyota in Japan in 2018, and domestic fuel cell vehicles became hot at once.
The second wave of upsurge basically started in 2020, and there are two main driving factors:
First, the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions have introduced policies for the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles.
Before the country had no special planning and top-level design for the hydrogen energy industry, this was the first special policy, which greatly promoted the hydrogen energy industry.
Although it is based on awards, it is supported by state funds after all, so everyone is eager for it.
In order to be able to catch this bus, many places began to speed up the introduction of local administrative plans.
There were a lot of them in the first two years. This year, there are especially many plans issued in various places, so it seems very hot.
Second, under the new crown epidemic, various countries' promotion of green economic recovery and response to climate change have further boosted the popularity of hydrogen energy.
President Xi Jinping announced China's "carbon neutral" and "carbon peak" vision goals last year. The replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy is a general trend.
Hydrogen energy spans energy, automobiles, new materials, high-end equipment manufacturing and other fields. It is a strategic emerging industry. It has a strong driving force for the economy and conforms to mainstream values and national industrial policies. Local governments are also willing to promote it.
China News Weekly: You once said that you are worried about the repeated construction of industries in various places. What are you doing?
Jing Chunmei: The more typical one is the electric stack. The gap between my country and the developed countries is also mainly in the core technology and key materials of the fuel cell such as the electric stack.
After the ZTE incident, everyone has increased their awareness of the risk of discontinuing the supply of core key technologies, and they all believe that core key technologies must be independently developed.
As a result, central enterprises, private enterprises, the central government, and local governments have all aimed at key technologies, but overall they lacked overall planning and felt a bit of a rush. The convergence of production capacity and the signs of vicious competition appeared.
The "Decision" of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee put forward: "Building a new national system for key core technology research under the conditions of a socialist market economy." Hydrogen energy is a disruptive technology related to future global energy technology innovation and industrial competition. It is available from international to domestic Concerned, scientific research should establish a nationwide system for overall coordination.
China News Weekly: The industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is very long, but there is a strange phenomenon at present. Many places have proposed to develop a complete industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. What do you think of this idea?
Jing Chunmei: Everyone is willing to develop a complete industrial chain. There are several factors behind this: First, for the development of the local economy, I definitely hope that the industrial chain will be longer, which will help promote local economic development, including employment and taxation.
Second, the current breakthrough in the development of hydrogen energy starts with the application of hydrogen fuel vehicles.
To build a hydrogen refueling station if there is a car, it is necessary to solve the problem of hydrogen source and storage and transportation.
As long as there is an application, it must be traced to the source, and the entire industry chain will be developed once it is traced.
Third, hydrogen storage and transportation are limited.
At present, hydrogen is mainly transported by long tube trailers, and the amount of high-pressure gaseous hydrogen delivery is limited, and the transportation radius is limited, which is an economic radius of 150 to 200 kilometers.
At present, hydrogen cannot be transported by pipelines over long distances like natural gas, and liquid hydrogen has not been used. Localities can only form industrial chains around their respective administrative divisions.
"Some places only hope that the figures for demonstration operations are good-looking"
China News Weekly: In the early stages of the development of the pure electric vehicle industry, how can we avoid repeating the same mistakes in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry?
Jing Chunmei: Last year, the Ministry of Finance issued a policy on the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles. I think there are three main policy points that can better prevent fraudulent subsidies.
First, support fuel cell vehicles in the form of "reward for subsidy".
Talking about heroes by results, not that if city groups want to build fuel cell vehicles, they can give you subsidies all at once. Only city groups can get rewards after they make achievements.
Second, conduct a full-process and dynamic assessment.
The original financial subsidies are often given in one lump sum beforehand. The policies of the past few years have learned from experience and lessons, and have been supervised before and after.
The same is true for the demonstration documents of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Each city group is selected in advance, and a mid-term evaluation will be conducted two years later, as well as an annual assessment.
If the urban agglomeration reaches the demonstration target in 4 years, it can get all the subsidy funds. This is the supervision and evaluation of the whole process.
If not, these reward funds will be deducted and suspended.
Third, the document stipulates that the rewarded funds cannot be used for vehicle investment and hydrogen refueling station infrastructure construction, but for core technology, industrialization and demonstration applications. This is a support policy for the current shortcomings and weaknesses of the industry. , Which is conducive to allowing local governments and enterprises to focus on the shortcomings of industrial development and concentrate their efforts to overcome core key technologies.
China News Weekly: Local governments are eager to transform and upgrade industries. In addition to policies for new industries, they are more and more willing to spend real money to support them. Local governments have a tendency to invest in venture capital. How to treat this phenomenon?
Jing Chunmei: I think this approach can be tried, and some local governments have also practiced it better.
At the beginning of the industry's development, under the circumstances of corporate funding difficulties, lack of capital guarantees, and narrow financing channels, the government can provide certain support to companies and play the role of angel funds to help the industry develop.
However, there must be advances and retreats. When enterprises have the ability to develop themselves, government funds should withdraw in due course to focus on other industries that need support instead of competing with the people for profit.
China News Weekly: At present, the operation of hydrogen refueling stations, or the operation of hydrogen fuel demonstration vehicles, must rely on government subsidies to survive, otherwise it lacks market competitiveness. The industry has seen obvious subsidy dependence. Is this phenomenon normal?
Jing Chunmei: Many places have subsidies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and some places subsidize 50%. For example, the price of hydrogen buses is about 2 million yuan, compared with 1 million yuan for pure electric vehicles (unsubsidized price). ), the price difference in the middle is almost always covered by the government.
For some local governments, a few demonstration vehicles can be subsidized. If it is really scaled up, local financial resources need to be tested.
In addition, hydrogenation also requires subsidies.
At present, the actual price of hydrogen is 80-100 yuan/kg. In many places, the subsidy is 40-50 yuan per kilogram, and it is only sold at the price of thirty or forty yuan.
However, the car needs to be continuously refueled to run, and every kilogram of hydrogen is subsidized. The subsidy cost will be very high, more than the purchase subsidy. Whether it is sustainable is really a question mark.
We communicate with many local governments, and some leaders lack sufficient consideration.
They may not have thought about this aspect, and only hope that the figures for demonstration operations are good-looking.
How much space the local hydrogen energy industry has and how many vehicles it can support can be calculated.
The industrial planning of a place requires a holistic and systematic plan, and these accounts must be calculated.
Avoid "spending your own money to help others open up the market"
China News Weekly: Some people commented that the hydrogen energy industry has ushered in the "Golden Decade". What do you think?
Jing Chunmei: I think large-scale industrialization will not be possible during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The word "gold" is mentioned too high.
This industry has gone through the difficult course of 0 to 1, and is in the critical stage of 1 to 10, from 10 to 100 to the golden period.
Compared with the past, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the hydrogen energy industry is definitely a window period for rapid development.
From a global perspective, major economies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Oceania have included hydrogen energy in their national strategic plans. At present, hydrogen energy is a global heat.
From a domestic perspective, the industrial chain is basically complete, from hydrogen production, storage and transportation to application.
In terms of fuel cell stack production and other aspects, although the core key technologies cannot be completely controlled independently, the main production processes are basically mastered.
Private enterprises are taking the lead, and central enterprises are now following up. There are now more than 300 companies in the supply chain and more than 100 listed companies involved in hydrogen.
The Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions have issued support policies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and the country is doing top-level design of the hydrogen energy industry. All of these will promote the continuous improvement of hydrogen energy industry policies and accelerate industrial development.
China News Weekly: What suggestions do you have for promoting the healthy development of my country's hydrogen energy industry?
Jing Chunmei: First, we must base our country’s national conditions and scientifically plan the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
Keep thinking cold in the heat of hydrogen energy.
my country’s resources and energy endowments are diverse, and there is a large room for energy selection and economic regulation. We should start from my country’s national conditions, according to my country’s energy strategy and industrial development needs, and plan from the entire industrial chain system, and scientifically and rationally position hydrogen energy in my country’s energy industry. The status and role of the system cannot be blindly followed.
Second, the hydrogen energy industry must be developed under the premise of autonomous and controllable technology.
The government's support policy is ultimately to achieve breakthroughs in core key technologies.
In the past, we learned a lot of industry lessons. After the government subsidies were withdrawn, there were no breakthroughs in core technology. The development of the industry was just a feather, and hydrogen energy development must avoid these problems.
It is difficult for enterprises to consider the overall interests of the country, but the country should guide them through top-level design.
Third, do not pursue end-market applications too quickly before technology has no autonomy.
At present, in the field of fuel cell vehicles, domestic companies still have a significant gap with the international in terms of core technology, key materials and equipment manufacturing.
Foreign companies that have mastered core technologies have not yet paid off their investment in R&D for many years, and are facing the dilemma that their costs must be diluted.
If terminal applications are promoted on a large scale at this time, local companies will rely on foreign technology, weaken their own core technological innovation power, and cause a large outflow of high profits in the entire industry chain, and the embarrassment of "spending your own money to help others open up the market" situation.
However, some local governments feel that if the whole vehicle is placed there, the performance is also good, and there is the impulse of political performance behind it, and it is also driven by corporate interests.
Plans are being made at the local level. More than 20 provinces or provincial-level cities are planning to produce hydrogen energy, and more than 40 prefecture-level cities are planning more than 30 industrial parks. Regardless of the number of batteries, stacks, or the number of cars, it is far larger. Due to the carrying capacity of the market, there are great risks. We should treat industrial development more rationally and soberly.
China News Weekly, Issue 7, 2021
Statement: The publication of the "China News Weekly" manuscript is authorized in writing