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Stuttgart / Mannheim (dpa / lsw) - The head of the Wahlen research group, Matthias Jung, expects the Greens to win the state election in Baden-Württemberg around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann.

"According to the current opinion, it is very likely that the Greens will remain the strongest party," said the election researcher from Mannheim of the German press agency.

There are two main reasons for this: "Kretschmann fills the role of national father like no other Prime Minister in Germany," explained Jung, referring to his popularity ratings.

And: "The CDU makes it particularly easy for Kretschmann to steal the bourgeois voters away from it."

According to the latest surveys by various research institutes, the Greens are between 3 and 7 points ahead of the Christian Democrats of the top candidate and Minister of Education, Susanne Eisenmann.

According to the figures from the Wahlen research group, the Greens lead with 34 percent before the CDU, which only has 28 percent.

"In the past few years, the CDU has been reluctant to accept the changes in society and has maneuvered itself more and more into the end," explained Jung.

Neither CDU country chief Thomas Strobl nor Eisenmann are known to have "made strong efforts to modernize the CDU".

Kretschmann had copied something from Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU): "To learn from Merkel means to learn to win: Kretschmann represents the middle that should actually occupy the CDU."

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Jung also pointed out that Eisenmann was rated extremely poorly by the Baden-Württembergers.

In addition, even the CDU supporters would prefer to keep Kretschmann as Prime Minister.

«65 percent of CDU supporters want Kretschmann as Prime Minister and only 22 percent of their own supporters want Eisenmann.

That is also an important reason why the state CDU is in a significantly worse position than the federal CDU. "

The election researcher made it clear that Eisenmann had a difficult position as minister of education because there were few plus points to collect in the office.

«In the current Corona situation, this is a suicide mission.

If you open schools, it's too risky, if you leave them closed, many don't think it's good either. "

Jung does not assume that the polls will change much before the election.

"So many postal votes have already been made that part of the fair has already been read."

In addition, the interest in a state election is not so great that current issues could change the trend significantly.

At most, the CDU still has the option to mobilize more strongly against a conceivable traffic light coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP and to promote a continuation of Green-Black.

But to do this, the Union must openly admit that it no longer expects a victory.

© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210301-99-634306 / 2