Paris (AFP)
Accounts in the red and more jobs destroyed: Unédic, which manages the unemployment insurance scheme, forecasts a deficit of 10 billion euros in 2021 and anticipates the destruction of 230,000 jobs under the effect of the end public aid and a "still fragile economic situation".
The joint body, which presented its financial forecasts for the unemployment insurance scheme for 2022, also said on Wednesday that the scheme's deficit would reach 6.4 billion euros that year.
This would bring the debt to 70.6 billion euros at the end of 2022, after 64.2 billion at the end of 2021 and 54.2 billion at the end of 2020.
For 2020, the deficit is 17.4 billion, Unédic emphasizing that "it is not the expenditure of unemployment benefit which weighed the most" but that "more than half is attributable to the financing of the partial activity "(55%).
This is covered two-thirds by the State, one-third by Unédic.
At the height of the crisis in the spring, nearly 9 million employees were affected.
They were still 2.1 million in January, according to Dares.
In 2021, Unédic "makes the assumption that the employment maintenance measures should fade over the course of the year. The end of aid and a still fragile economic situation would lead to the destruction of 230,000 jobs" this year. , after the destruction of 360,500 private jobs in 2020 (INSEE figures).
The number of unemployed people receiving benefits would thus be "about 2.95 million people at the end of 2021", continues the organization.
In 2022, on the other hand, the number of job seekers receiving benefits "would decrease by 125,000 thanks to the 210,000 job creations expected, which would bring the number of unemployed people receiving benefits to around 2.8 million people at the end of 2022. The level of employment would return to its 2020 level (19.4 million) ", adds Unédic.
During a videoconference press point, Éric Le Jaouen, president of Unédic, underlined the "complicated situation in terms of forecasts", due to the uncertainties hanging over the economy and support policies "which are does not know when they will stop ".
- "Covid Debt" -
To this is added the meeting next Tuesday between the Minister of Labor, Elisabeth Borne, and the social partners, during which will be "exposed the new unemployment insurance regulations", he noted.
The heads of the main trade unions and employers' organizations are invited to discuss "the exit points" of the consultation initiated in the fall on the controversial reform of unemployment insurance.
The organization's forecasts are based on the unemployment insurance rules currently in force "because we do not know the changes that will take place" as part of the reform, added the director general of Unédic Christophe Valentie .
The organization nevertheless calculated that if the reform were carried out as initially planned, it would generate savings of one billion in 2021 and 2.6 billion in 2022. The government intends, however, to "adapt" it to the crisis.
Unédic also does not anticipate the vaccination rate or a possible third confinement, "therefore the level of uncertainty is high", insisted Mr. Valentie, stressing that unemployment insurance was "highly sensitive to the economic situation. economic".
In February 2020, before the explosion of the health crisis, Unédic forecast, after a deficit of 0.9 billion in 2020, a surplus financial balance of 2.3 billion euros in 2021, then 4.2 billion in 2022.
"The Covid crisis has brought the curve in the other direction" and "logically the debt is increasing", underlined Mr. Valentie.
Ultimately, Unédic estimates the impact of the economic crisis between 2020 and 2022 on its finances at "nearly 39 billion euros".
In a statement, the CGT reacted to these forecasts by again lambasting the reform of unemployment insurance.
"Unemployment is exploding and the only action of the government is to prioritize the reduction in benefits", she denounced, recalling that the five main unions had reaffirmed with one voice this week their opposition to the reform.
© 2021 AFP