• PP. This is how Pablo Casado improvised the farewell to Genoa to face "two very hard years" after the 'sorpasso' of Vox

  • Politics. The barons of the PP demand a change of course "in the medium term"

  • Politics. Married takes the first step for the re-founding of the PP: "We are going to cut ties"

The

surprise

of Vox to the PP and Ciudadanos in the elections in Catalonia has shaken the bloc on the right, but it has not substantially changed its correlation of demographic forces.

The February Sigma Dos poll for EL MUNDO confirms an increase in Santiago Abascal's party, whose vote estimate goes from 13.5% in December to 15.6%.

A rise of 2.1 points that is sympathetic to the 1.8 point drop of the

popular

, from 25.2% to 23.4% of support.

The mouthful of Vox al PP

in two months is important, but those of

Married

They are still 7.8 points higher, a distance higher than that of the November 2019 elections (5.7 points).

At the same time, Ciudadanos continues to fall strongly, from 7.6% to 6.3%. The fieldwork for this survey was carried out from February 15 to 17.

That is, in the days when Vox capitalized on its irruption in the Catalan Parliament and the PP was still licking its wounds after its electoral bump.

In fact, Pablo Casado announced on the 16th that his party

will leave its headquarters

nacional, in the street of Genova in Madrid.

"We must not continue in a building whose reform is being investigated this week in the courts," Casado told his barons last Tuesday. In the national leadership of the PP they recognize that the corruption of previous times is penalizing them in the polls .

Hence, they have symbolically broken with their past.

Especially in view of the expectation of a judicial ordeal for the acronyms, with causes such as the alleged box B, the payment of the works of the headquarters, the

Kitchen

, the second stage of

Gürtel

, and pieces of

Punic

or

Lezo

Now, with no electoral horizon ahead of him until the Andalusian elections of 2022, Pablo Casado has 20 months before him in which to undertake the re-founding of the party, intensifying his turn towards more focused positions, that is, closer to Cs than to Vox, according to sources

popular

.

Why?

Because the alliance with the voters

oranges

It seems more natural to Casado than to Abascal.

Only with a strong center-right will the useful vote swing from Vox to the PP again, they calculate in Genoa.

To do this, they first have to gain demoscopic muscle, they acknowledge.

And now he is losing it, the PP is closer to the

PSOE

(27.6%) than Vox, although Casado can no longer speak of a "technical tie" with

Pedro Sanchez

, since the distance between the two has widened from 2.7 to 4.2 percentage points.

They are still three points less of the gap than in the last general elections, but it is a real setback for the

popular

, after having remained above 24% for a year. In Vox they trust to consolidate this change in trend, although they are aware that they cannot encompass as much electorate as their rival in the particular right-wing league.

In a

interview granted on Saturday to this newspaper

, Abascal took heart from the strength of his training, but also recognized his limitations: «I observe with concern the poor result of the PP and Cs in

Catalonia

, because Vox cannot represent the entire political spectrum.

And advocated the merger of

popular

Y

oranges

: “They are not distinguished in anything and that is why they have an obligation, which is not to offer two acronyms to the electorate who are defending the same thing, the same program.” The survey figures draw a picture in which Vox would still have to steal four percentage points to the PP to be able to hunt it down, something that has not happened in the entire historical series of Sigma Dos. If the elections were held now, the right-wing bloc would obtain 45.3%, while PSOE and

United we can

they would add 47.8% together with their parliamentary partners:

ERC

(3.2%),

Junts per Catalunya

(2.2%),

PNV

(2 and

More Country

(0.9%).

The rest of the formations would take 6.9% of the votes. With 27.6% of the support, the PSOE consolidates itself as the party with the greatest intention to vote, and widens its distance with the PP.

After verifying that

Salvador Illa

has won the Catalan elections, but it is very difficult to govern, the Socialists leave 0.3 points with respect to the December demographic prediction. Together with Vox, the party that rises the most is United We Can, which convinces 11.9% of voters, 1.1 points more than in the last survey of this newspaper.

After enduring the guy in the catalanas, the formation that captains

Pablo Iglesias

recovers a part of its space, and it does so despite its bitter controversies with the socialist wing of the Executive. Just in the days when the calls for this poll were made, United We can tighten the rope with the PSOE to the maximum.

First, those of Pablo Iglesias

they abstained

in taking into consideration the

Equal Treatment Law

, promoted by the PSOE.

The reason: that they bet on

Trans Law

-and that only one of the two is approved.

In fact, Podemos called on the government's parliamentary partners not to support the PSOE rule.

Later, their parliamentarians did not applaud the Socialists (and vice versa). 57% of Spaniards do not know the Trans Law, but among those who have heard of it, the vast majority are in favor.

65% of those who are familiar with this proposal see it as "necessary".

And only 35% think differently, mainly because it does not seem a priority.

62% of Spaniards believe that trans people suffer discrimination, according to the survey. Of those who know the norm and agree with its convenience, the majority support "gender self-determination", gender change in minors , that there is the option of declaring itself "non-binary" and that free access to bathrooms and changing rooms of the legal gender is allowed. Another of the most current issues is that of the

squatting

of uninhabited homes.

87% of those surveyed consider it to be a social problem.

And in that there is an absolute coincidence between all the great parties.

There is also consensus in supporting the Executive Decree that prohibits the evictions of people in vulnerable situations during the state of alarm, even if they are squatting a property.

56.4% endorse the measure.

And the "no" only wins among Vox voters.

Those of PP and Ciudadanos are completely divided and those of PSOE and United We can have it clear: a reservation must be made during the worst moments of the pandemic, in this way, the demographic data does not discourage the pulse of Pablo Iglesias to Pedro Sánchez.

All this at a time when the second vice president of the Executive is spreading the idea that Spain is not a "full democracy."

The president has disavowed it, recalling that Spain is one of the 23 complete democracies in the world. In any case, the straw that threatens to fill the glass of socialist patience is that Podemos has not explicitly and specifically condemned the violence that has occurred after the demonstrations against the rapper's imprisonment

Paul Hasel

, which resulted in dozens of arrested and injured in cities such as

Madrid

Y

Barcelona

.

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