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The German borders with Austria and the Czech Republic have been strictly controlled since Sunday.
This is to prevent the virus mutations from spreading in Germany.
Christopher Dye, Professor of Epidemiology at Oxford University and former Strategic Director of the World Health Organization (WHO), does not think the measure makes much sense.
WORLD:
Can border closings stop the virus?
Christopher Dye:
Border closings will not stop mutations forever.
The virus finds its way.
Such measures only delay the inevitable.
Epidemologist Christopher Dye
Source: Christopher Dye Archives
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WORLD:
In New Zealand and Australia, border closings worked ...
Dye:
We have to be careful with such comparisons.
In these countries, the number of infections was comparatively low.
With border closings they tried to prevent the virus from entering the country, which almost succeeded.
That didn't work in Europe.
WORLD:
Why not?
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Dye:
On the one hand, because the virus spread incredibly quickly from Italy to Europe.
On the other hand, there are thousands of kilometers between Australia, New Zealand and the rest of the world.
The two countries are relatively isolated anyway.
WORLD:
Which measures are more sensible in Europe?
Dye:
Europe should expand its virus sequencing capacity.
You have to analyze which variant is widespread and where.
As long as only a small part of the virus samples are sequenced, the mutations can hardly be traced.
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The UK is already placing great emphasis on sequencing.
Other countries could follow this example.
Of course, virus analysis must be part of a larger package of measures.
WORLD:
What can you learn from sequencing?
Dye:
Right now, there aren't even a handful of mutations that we're very concerned about.
But there will be more.
Much more.
We need to know if they are more dangerous and if the vaccines will remain effective.
In the UK we have already learned a lot about the first wave from sequencing.
For example, that no border closure could have stopped what happened in March 2020.
The coronavirus came to Great Britain in around a thousand different routes within a few weeks: first from Italy, then from Spain and finally from France.
WORLD:
What should one have done in retrospect?
Dye:
Go into lockdown earlier.
The countries that did this had fewer corona deaths.
Germany responded well in this regard.
WORLD:
Germany also closed its borders back then.
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Dye:
I think that was only partially effective.
In my opinion, the contact restrictions were crucial.
The virus came to Germany anyway.
It just hasn't spread that much.
I believe that the German health system also did its part to ensure that things went smoothly.
The hospitals had enough capacity - unlike in countries like Italy or Great Britain.
Germany even accepted patients from neighboring countries.
WORLD:
The border closings are initially limited to ten days.
Health Minister Spahn probably wants to extend it.
When does it become apparent whether the measure was able to contain the spread of the mutations?
Dye:
I would be surprised if a border closure had an effect over such a short period of time.
If, on the one hand, you have a country like the Czech Republic that is more heavily affected by Corona and, on the other hand, a country that is less affected like Germany, then the borders would need to be closed for a significantly longer period of time.
But even if the controls were prolonged, they would hardly be tough enough to stop the virus.
WORLD:
Why not?
Dye:
If Czechs or Austrians want or have to come to Germany, most of them will find a way.
If necessary, they can then travel to a third country.
I live on the French-Swiss border.
There are thousands of border crossings here every day.
In the first lockdown, an attempt was made to prevent this - temporarily.
Closing and monitoring the border permanently is simply too expensive.
WORLD:
Why is politics still deciding to close borders?
Dye:
I understand the desire to keep the dangerous virus out of the country like this.
And even if border controls are not particularly effective, they still send a signal: the situation is serious.
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WORLD:
How serious is the situation?
Dye:
New variants of the coronavirus are discovered every day.
It is almost inevitable that new viruses will emerge - some will be more easily transmitted;
others will cause more severe disease;
for some, the vaccines won't work.
So we have to be vigilant.
And that's why we have to try across Europe to push back the virus.
Smaller virus populations not only mean fewer infections and deaths, but also fewer mutations.
WORLD:
What quick reactions are there?
Dye:
Testing, quarantine measures and contact follow-up are important, as is social distancing.
We can also hope for the vaccinations.
But I don't think we can eradicate the virus in Europe - let alone worldwide.
We can only push it back so far that health systems can handle it.
WORLD:
That means we have to live with the virus?
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Dye:
My prognosis is: In the spring the infections will decrease.
On the one hand, because people are outside more often when the weather is good.
On the other hand, because more and more people will be vaccinated.
In the coming winter, however, there will be outbreaks again, albeit much smaller than last year.
WORLD:
Will the borders be controlled again?
Dye:
I doubt that.
The costs are too high - economically and socially.
I could only imagine that such measures would be used in the short term to bring local outbreaks under control.
Politicians should think about alternatives now: border closings are not an effective solution in Europe and neither will they be next winter.
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