The severe damage to Sudan is evident as a result of the failure to reach a legal agreement regarding the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam whenever the date of the second filling approaches next July, which prompted Khartoum to develop scenarios that anticipate the worst.

In July 2020, the first filling was about 4.5 billion cubic meters, and after about 5 months, the second filling will be 13.5 billion cubic meters, and with the same doubling of filling the dam, the problems that Sudan will suffer will double.

When Ethiopia surprised the two downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, with the first filling within a week only, without Sudan having any data, the latter complained about the failure of 7 Nile drinking water stations in the capital, Khartoum, which is home to more than 8 million people, which caused a stifling water crisis.

In 2011, Ethiopia began construction of the Renaissance Dam in the course of the Blue Nile, 20 km from the Sudan border, to generate 6 thousand megawatts, and the capacity of the dam, classified among the largest dams in Africa, is about 74 billion cubic meters.

drinking water

In addition to the damage to drinking water stations, which last year was limited to Khartoum State, the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources is calculating this year for damages to drinking water services in several states.

In anticipation of the damage of the previous flood season, which coincided with the date of filling the Renaissance Dam, the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources invited those responsible for agricultural projects and drinking water authorities in the states to a meeting on Monday to explain to them several scenarios, including the worst scenario of Ethiopia starting the second filling of the dam without prior agreement. And binding.

The director of the Nile Water Department at the Ministry of Irrigation, Ballah Muhammad, says that the meeting is not to cause panic, but to explain the measures and precautions if Ethiopia fills the dam without an agreement, among which is what the drinking water authorities must take by preparing the lower level of the river at the water stations if the Nile recedes unexpectedly. .

List of damages

Although Sudanese officials refused to link the record floods of the Nile and its tributaries last year to the first filling of the Renaissance Dam, Mustafa Hussein, head of the technical staff of the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, confirms that there is a relationship between the filling and the floods.

Hussein tells Al-Jazeera Net that Ethiopia, without informing Sudan, intended in the first filling to fill 4.5 billion cubic meters in just one week in July, while the same amount could have been filled in a longer time and during the previous August, which is witnessing the peak of the flood , Which would have reduced the flood damage.

Last year, Sudan witnessed the heaviest floods in a century, causing the displacement of thousands of families, the destruction of tens of thousands of acres of agricultural land, and the death of livestock.

Sudan asks Ethiopia to reach an agreement on filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would provide it with data on water flows after the dam to ensure the safety of its facilities on the river and make the most of the water.

Agricultural damage

According to the director of the technical staff, the availability of data guarantees for Sudan the safe operation of the Roseires Dam, which is a hundred kilometers from the Renaissance Dam, as the earth dam extending to the right and left of the concrete dam of the Roseires Dam could be exposed to damages if the dam receives large water flows above the earth dam.

The damages to Sudan, as a result of the second filling, extend to agricultural projects irrigated through reservoirs and to small ones on the banks of the Nile that are irrigated with pumps.

According to the director of the Nile Water Department at the Ministry of Irrigation, Ballah Muhammad, the agricultural projects administrations must control coordination with the ministry, especially before the summer agricultural season, to reduce the damages of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam because the areas for this year will be less than usual.

The head of the technical staff confirms that the ministry has developed several scenarios to deal with the Renaissance Dam if Ethiopia includes the data for the second filling to avoid the effects that will extend to electrical generation in Sudan's dams.

"We do not have all the options, but what we have reviewed for officials of water stations, agricultural projects and electricity is within the limits of what is possible to mitigate the damage," he said.

Storage scenario

In order to avoid water scarcity, which was evident in the exit of drinking water stations as a result of the severe recession of the Nile before the Nile erupted in its recent flood last year, the head of the technical staff says that the ministry will store 900 million cubic meters in the Rossires reservoir as a reserve for agricultural projects during the summer.

The director of the Ministry's Reserves Department, Mutassim Awad, explains that among the following scenarios, filling and emptying Sudanese tanks, adjusting the filling and emptying times at a rate of one month in anticipation of filling the Renaissance Dam.

Awad explains that his administration used to open the reservoir gates every year on the first of July to drain the stored water in preparation for receiving and storing the Nile water during the flood period, but this year it will empty the dams on July 31.

Apart from these technical scenarios that the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation is guarding of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam without an agreement, the ministry calls for escalating political and diplomatic measures as the most feasible by reaching an agreement within the next five months before Ethiopia begins the second filling.

Game of options

A Sudanese official blames Egypt and Ethiopia for exaggerating the "political burdens" regarding the issue of the Renaissance Dam, which makes reaching an agreement dependent on the availability of the political will of the leaders of the three countries after the technical negotiations reach agreements by 90%.

He believes that it is possible to go on a legal path, for example by submitting a complaint at the International Court of Justice, but these are measures that take a long time and Sudan needs to be resolved before next July, according to the official of the Ministry of Irrigation.

The Sudanese official revealed to Al-Jazeera Net that what prevented the convergence of views on the Renaissance Dam was that since the start of the negotiations, the Egyptian negotiating delegation had dominated the intelligence men, the legal Ethiopian delegation, and the Sudanese technical delegation.

In view of this, the same official affirms that Egypt and Ethiopia are not concerned with reaching an agreement before the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, which will put the lives and pensions of 20 million Sudanese on the banks of the Nile River and its tributaries at stake.

"There are communities that may be exposed to floods or thirst. People will be affected by agriculture and the lack of electricity if Ethiopia continues to miss information on filling the dam and draining water," he says.