"The N'Djamena summit comes in a very serious political, security and humanitarian context, said Jérôme Pigné, researcher on European policies in the Sahel at the Thomas More Institute. More than eight years after the start of a security crisis in Northern Mali, which continues to expand into the sub-region, hardly a day goes by without a terrorist attack. 

The number of civilians dead in jihadist attacks, recorded by the NGO Acled, specializing in data collection in conflict zones, has also increased considerably with more than 2,000 deaths recorded in 2019 and 2020. In addition to the increased civilian casualties, more than 30 million people are currently in need of food assistance in the sub-region.

There are also more than 200,000 Malian refugees, a million displaced people in Burkina Faso.  

Number of civilian victims in the Sahel from 2012 to 2020, recorded by ACLED.

© France 24

"Paris wants to downsize and engage its European allies

In this context, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, who is also participating in the videoconference meeting, intends to take advantage of the annual meeting to implement his two main objectives.

The first is to reduce the strength of the Barkhane force mobilized since 2014, whose commitment is regularly the subject of criticism, especially when France deplores the loss of life in its military contingents.

Since 2013, the army staff has deplored the deaths of 50 soldiers during the anti-jihadist operations Serval, then Barkhane. 

At the Pau summit a year ago, "France had announced a readjustment of its military positioning with the addition of 600 French soldiers, reminds France 24 Jérôme Pigné, specialist in jihadist issues. Now, President Macron evokes the possibility of returning to the initial format, without completely rethinking Barkhane's strategy.Behind that, we must also see a call from the French Head of State to the presidents of the region to take greater control of their destiny and their ability to articulate their military operations. It is indirectly a way of putting pressure on them. " 

Despite some successes of Barkhane, "the jihadists are still present and have shown a form of resilience", assures Wassim Nasr

01:58

The second objective is to engage its European allies politically and militarily in the Sahel.

Paris no longer wants to carry the fight alone through the Barkhane force.

Emmanuel Macron is counting this time on a partnership with Germany to engage on the political and military level.

The French president wishes to use the new group of special forces Takuba, in which dozens of Estonians, Czechs and Swedes participate, "as a Trojan horse to bring more Europeans to the Sahelian theater", abounds the researcher.  

Task Force Takuba continues to take shape.

The first Swedish soldiers 🇸🇪 arrived in Mali.

In a few weeks, the entire Swedish contingent will be deployed.

https://t.co/6eHpOcD4y5

- Florence Parly (@florence_parly) February 7, 2021

"Military objectives achieved"

To convince the most reluctant to engage in the Sahel, Emmanuel Macron intends to rely on an encouraging military record.

"For a year, we can say that the tactical and military objectives of the Barkhane force have been achieved because the attacks of the Islamic State organization have been contained, underlines Wassim Nasr, specialist for France 24 of jihadist movements. No complex operation n 'was set up. " 

The French soldiers can also account for the neutralization of a number of great Al-Qaeda leaders such as Abdelmadek Droukdel, founder of AQIM (Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb) shot down by French forces on June 3, 2020. The French army also announced that it had killed the Malian Bah ag Moussa, military leader of the Sahelian branch of al-Qaeda during an airborne operation.  

In addition, the observers were able to observe better coordination on the ground between the forces present.

"This was one of the objectives mentioned at the Pau summit, explains Wassim Nasr. We could see, in particular through Operation Eclipse, that it was achieved."

The operation carried out from January 2 to 20 by the Malian army and the French Barkhane force indeed made it possible to kill a hundred terrorists, capture about twenty jihadists and seize equipment.  

Another good point to note, the Malian forces have gained control.

In 2019, the bases of the Malian army were regularly the object of deadly jihadist raids and looting of its supplies and armaments.

In 2020, these attacks ceased.

"The question of jihadism in the Sahel is above all political"

07:41

More and more negative reactions against the French presence

It must be said that since 2020, the Barkhane forces have also benefited from the internal war waged by the fighters of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State organization.

"The fighting between jihadists has been so intense that the most important human and material losses of the jihadists come from other jihadists," continues Wassim Nasr.  

Despite these few successes, "the jihadists are still present and have shown a form of resilience, asserts Wassim Nasr. The daily attacks against the forces of Minusma and Barkhane show to what extent these jihadists retain a real capacity for action. maps on the presence of jihadists in the Sahel show that the terrorist network has only spread over the territory. "

Before being military, "the problem is above all political, estimates Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, research director at the IRD (Institute of Research for Development). If the States of the zone are not able to take over from the French army, you can kill all the jihadist leaders you want, the second knives will take over. The problem will not end. Especially since certain national armies commit abuses that legitimize jihadist groups and become protection forces for civilians. "  

There remains the thorny question of the disengagement of the French army.

Still recently questioned with the controversial air strike carried out in early January in the Douentza region, Mali.

"At the end of eight years, it is necessary to wonder about its objectives. Have they been achieved in the Sahel? For me, they are not, assures bluntly the director of the IRD. We have seen in eight years that the French military presence, which arouses more and more negative reactions, had not changed the situation. France therefore bears direct responsibility for the deterioration of the situation. "

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