14-F. Elections in Catalonia
Elections. The risk of a constitutional crisis: "Now there is more fear of the virus than of independence"
Catalonia
goes to the polls today with much more at stake than the winner of the most atypical electoral contest.
It is decided in this 14-F, which was about to be postponed
sine die
, if Pedro Sánchez's maneuver to conquer the
Generalitat
takes effect or if, on the contrary, secessionism gathers the majority necessary to annul a possible victory of the candidate socialist, Salvador Illa.
Regardless of who is the winner, all the polls point to the fact that ERC will have the key to the governance of Catalonia, being able to choose between reissuing the current separatist Executive with JxCat or opting to orchestrate a tripartite party that has practically already been ruled out before a notary by the Republicans.
The bitter differences between the two formations that currently make up the Catalan Government appear as the main obstacle to giving continuity to the Cabinet that led the
procés
to the cliff of 1-O.
An unresolved struggle that could well lead to the political blockade and the repetition of the elections given the inability of Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras to agree on the course of a separatist cause with no known horizon beyond the release of the prisoners.
It would be very plausible that, for the second consecutive time, a constitutionalist force was imposed on the Catalans.
Citizens did it in 2017 and a PSC willing and able to absorb up to 30% of the voters of the
orange
formation could repeat it today
.
The voter against independence goes to the schools with the intention of refocusing their support on the candidate with the most options to discuss the victory over separatism, a figure that this time embodies the former Minister of Health.
If this scenario is repeated, Illa has already warned that he will opt for the investiture - contrary to what Inés Arrimadas did - but this would not guarantee that he would end up being anointed president of the Generalitat.
This forecast can be twisted, however, if participation collapses today due to a double factor: the general demobilization of the constitutional vote and fear of the coronavirus.
Health measures of all kinds have been adopted, but the effects of voting in these circumstances are unpredictable.
Yesterday, in
Moncloa there was
concern over whether a high abstention today prevents Illa from winning the elections.
In the pro-independence bloc, whose voters are always more mobilized and willing to vote, if they were to reunite enough seats to reach an absolute majority (68 seats), they could be activated to unseat the candidate from the PSC, as they have already signed.
Everything indicates that ERC will decide the Government: if a tripartite with the PSC or a separatist reissue with JxCat.
There the second of the battles of this 14-F comes into play.
The internal plebiscite of the independence movement that will determine if Puigdemont maintains the reins of the separatist cause or if ERC manages to take them away after a decade of failed attempts.
Rather than ambition for victory, ERC and JxCat seek to be the most voted independence force to raise the right to lead the Generalitat before their peers.
Three years ago, despite the very recent application of 155 and the imprisonment and flight of the members of the
Government
, the negotiations to agree on the
president
were close to failing.
Today that agreement would be even more difficult.
Investing Pere Aragonès would mean for JxCat to assume that Puigdemont loses his role as plenipotentiary leader of the independence movement and to have to put aside his commitment to confrontation to resign himself to resuming the dialogue with the Sánchez Government and exploring an agreed self-determination referendum.
Much should back down the mark of the fugitive after spending the campaign promising to reactivate the unilateral declaration of independence if secessionism exceeds 50% of the votes.
ERC has already clarified that it would not feel bound by that milestone if it surpasses those of Puigdemont.
But, if this is not achieved, it would be required to radicalize its roadmap and abandon all collaboration with the Government, something that would have a full impact on the stability of the central Executive, which today rests with the Republicans, preferred partners of the PSOE and Podemos.
Nobody rules out that participation collapses, which in principle would harm the constitutionalists
Puigdemont has given ERC his constant support for Sánchez in order to underline his betrayal of the independence movement in an electoral advance that he himself forced with the sought disqualification of Quim Torra.
But it will hardly continue to tolerate a Government with two souls.
The escapee will try to subdue Junqueras and dynamite Sánchez's parliamentary majority to avenge his support for 155 in a single movement.
If he is daunted again before JxCat, he should swallow more ERC toads, because the "unpolluted" independence force should invest Laura Borràs despite her accusation of corruption and assume that, if she ends up convicted and disqualified,
Joan Canadell
-a
declared
Trumpist-
would end up elevated to the presidency by express order of Puigdemont.
In the shadow of the main dispute over the conquest of the Generalitat, the no less fratricidal struggle of the constitutionalist center right will be fought.
The massive transfer of the vote from Citizens to the PSC guarantees a debacle for those from Arrimadas, which could compromise the future of the formation if it falls from 36 to ten deputies, a scenario that the Liberals no longer dare to discard, condemned to be swallowed up .
In parallel to the fight for the Government, the battle between the PP, Cs and Vox breaks out
And no less demanded comes the PP to this 14-F.
The
Sorpasso
Vox to
popular
implicate Pablo Casado, having overturned like no other state leader in the Catalan electoral race with weekly visits to the community since long before you start the campaign.
Preventing the formation chaired by Santiago Abascal from breaking into the Parliament by overtaking the PP and relegating it to the last position of the arc seems an essential goal to prevent Casado's leadership and the ability of his party to reunify the center-right from being questioned.
That is the desire of Vox, which has carried out its campaign in abnormal conditions, after suffering the attacks of secessionism without seeing its options undermined.
Rather on the contrary, the violence was accompanied by protagonism and those of Abascal intend to take advantage of the focus to vindicate themselves as the force that will prevent new separatist stakes.
Despite the problems of voting in the midst of the pandemic, the Generalitat assures that the polling stations may be constituted and the results published this Sunday, after having questioned it this week.
It will be more complicated for the governance of Catalonia to be cleared today.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Know more
Catalonia
PSC
PP
Vox
Salvador Illa
Pablo Casado
Santiago Abascal Conde
Laura Borràs
Quim Torra
Can
PSOE
Inés Arrimadas
Oriol Junqueras
Carles puigdemont
Pedro Sanchez
Parental pin
Catalan Elections
CataloniaIlla and the independence movement call for mobilization to resolve the battle to three for the Generalitat
Catalonia elections 2021The PSC would rob Citizens of 30% of their voters
Catalan elections 2021 Salvador Illa would win on 14-F and Oriol Junqueras would choose who governs Catalonia
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