The pro-independence majority remains intact in Catalonia no matter how much the
procés
wanders aimlessly and the pandemic has portrayed the inability of its promoters to manage the social and economic misery that plagues its population.
Separatism is once again in a position to annul the second consecutive victory of constitutionalism.
If in 2017 he did it with Inés Arrimadas, now they are in a position to repeat it with
Salvador Illa
.
The union of secessionist deputies may far exceed the absolute majority to form a government if its components so wish, since ERC, JxCat and the CUP amassed 74 deputies together yesterday, six more than the 68 necessary for their sum to be incontestable.
The result obtained improves even that achieved on 21-D.
In the elections called for the application of 155, and therefore in full swing for independence against the intervention of autonomy, secessionism achieved four fewer seats.
The majority is reinforced but the correlation of forces within the independence bloc varies, while ERC finally manages to place itself above
Carles Puigdemont's
JxCat
, after a decade trying to seize the reins of the procés from CiU and its many times renowned heirs.
Republicans managed to
resist the thrust of the
neoconvergentes
, threatening to return to
sorpassar
formation chaired by Oriol Junqueras as three years ago, and although this time departing at a
disadvantage.
Finally, a single deputy separated the two main independence forces -33 seats for ERC by 32 for JxCat-, but Junqueras will be able to cling to that minimum difference to demand that Puigdemont cease as plenipotentiary leader of the independence movement and assume his calmer sheet of This route involves agreeing to a self-determination referendum with the Government at the negotiating table on the "conflict" and rejecting, at least in the short term, the return to the unilateral path, which JxCat demanded if secessionism exceeded the 50% of the votes for the first time.
Separatism fails to exceed 50% of the vote
The independence movement claimed to have exceeded that very symbolic threshold, although to do so it counted the votes of the PDeCAT, which asked not to be counted to promote a new unilateral declaration of independence and could not support that bet from the Parliament, since it did not obtain representation.
With the votes of the candidacy sponsored by
Artur Mas
, separatism rose to 50.8%, without it it remained at 48%.
The candidacy led by
Àngels Chacón
paid for
his many years in the shadow of the fugitive.
The timid support of the father of the procés and a few months marking his own profile and brandishing moderation were not enough to convince the 3% of the voters necessary to stay in the Chamber.
It should be noted that if JxCat had not broken with PDeCAT and had added its 76,000 ballots, it would have gathered more votes than ERC.
The CUP, decisive for the absolute majority
The greatest impulse among the separatist actors was experienced by the radicals of the CUP, who went from four to nine deputies.
Without their support, ERC and JxCat will not be able to reach an absolute majority, with which the antisystems are once again decisive to form the Government, as they were after the "plebiscites" of 2015, when they sent Mas to the "trash can of history" .
It includes the CUP in its program to organize a new referendum on self-determination in 2025, with which its pressure could force ERC to radicalize its bet if it wants to see
Pere Aragonès
invested.
There was a risk of demobilization in the independence movement after three years of internal fights and an absolute lack of horizon.
The legislature died after the persecuted disqualification of
Quim Torra
.
But he did so among so many and so public reproaches that both ERC and JxCat feared they had overly jaded the very loyal sovereign electorate, capable of continuing to support the inducers of the process even after verifying that 1-O led to jail and death. flight, no to independence.
But the irruption of Illa as a candidate revitalized separatism, which found in the former Minister of Health and Pedro Sánchez's candidate the enemy against which to direct nationalist anger, always in need of an adversary to demonize to justify its existence.
The independence forces tried to postpone
the elections
sine die
for fear that the La Moncloa maneuver would be impossible to abort, but the fierce defense of 14-F carried out by the PSC and its satellite forces led JxCat and ERC to temporarily park their differences to point to Illa as a reckless presidential candidate and insensitive to the pandemic.
Not only did the socialist candidate become responsible for the 56,000 deaths that he left behind after leaving the Ministry, but also for leading Catalonia to vote in the middle of the third wave.
And the separatist strategy worked, despite Illa's Pyrrhic victory.
Junqueras and Puigdemont managed to distract the attention of their voters, who for the first time in a decade could not be promised any milestone to approach separation from Spain.
They do not wait after the 14-F plebiscites, consultations or referendums, simply the commitment to try to reissue a Government with a sovereign accent to prevent the project started by Artur Mas in 2012 from sinking when its promoters are cut off from the institutions.
Risk of blocking and electoral repetition
And therein lies the true post-electoral difficulty for the independence movement, which retains strong social support, but faces the negotiations to form a government in a climate so rarefied that it could lead to the failure of those talks and the consequent political blockade of Catalonia.
If Torra was anointed with forceps already in 2017, who can rule out now that secessionism is not able to agree on a consensus candidate and that this causes electoral repetition if, in parallel, it refuses to allow Illa to govern?
This last commitment was signed by all the pro-independence forces at the end of the campaign, with which it would be very costly for ERC to deny that sanitary cordon, no matter how much its president in Parliament,
Sergi Sabrià
,
signed it
and not its candidate. Pere Aragonès.
If they chose to extend their alliance with Sánchez to Catalonia, orchestrating a tripartite party, the Republicans would ratify their status as traitors to the cause, and would suffer the signaling of the rest of separatism, which would accuse them of agreeing with the parents of 155 with the purpose of raiding the pardon of Junqueras.
"ERC will once again have the presidency of the Generalitat", the president of ERC warned last night, rushing the third degree granted by the prison services of the Generalitat.
He urged the condemned man to "build great consensus to achieve self-determination and amnesty", which is an explicit call to lead a broad Government in which, in addition to JxCat, the CUP and the commons will be invited.
However, the Catalan brand of Podemos has already refused to share an Executive with those of Puigdemont.
Aragonès was in charge of addressing Sánchez to clarify that, despite Illa's victory, it will be ERC that governs the Generalitat and continues to blackmail the State.
"It is time to resolve the conflict, time to vote in a referendum and achieve amnesty," the president warned the socialist head of the central Executive, to later insist on that "broad Government" with which ERC intends to dilute as much as possible to JxCat to reduce to a minimum the capacity of influence of the fugitive in the Cabinet.
«Only a pro-independence government can be reissued.
We have to understand each other ", assumed the JxCat candidate,
Laura Borràs
, in a conciliatory message called to expire in the next few hours.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Know more
Catalonia
CUP
Catalan Democratic Party
Artur Mas
Pere Aragonès
Spain
Quim Torra
Can
Laura Borràs
PSC
Pedro Sanchez
Oriol Junqueras
Carles puigdemont
Salvador Illa
Inés Arrimadas
theater
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