Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi does not leave an opportunity to present the country's problems, but he does not use it to warn of the population increase, which he considers one of the most serious obstacles to development, and even puts it at the level of the danger of terrorism.

During a telephone conversation with the journalist Amr Adib, on his TV program "Al-Hekaya", on the Saudi "MBC Masr" channel, on Saturday, Al-Sisi renewed his warning about population growth, describing it as a major problem that must be resolved by the people. And the government.

Despite the presidential warning, Al-Sisi ruled out the state’s resorting to violent legal measures to solve this problem, and added, “The impact of the revolution and anger is still present (within) the people until now .. It has not ended (not finished) yet .. But it must be People have to help us, that it (by) understand the reasons for what we are in, and why did we come to that (and why did we reach this point?).)

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics announced on the first days of this year that the population of Egypt had reached about 101 million and 375 thousand people, with an increase of one million and 375 thousand and 894 people within 10 months, noting that about 20 million residents are concentrated in the governorates of Cairo and Giza.

The presidential and government-related interest in the issue of overpopulation and the causes and consequences it encompasses pushes to move away a little from the circle of the crisis - if it is considered a real crisis - and the trend towards questioning the country’s condition if the population decreases and whether it will really emerge from its crises or enter another circle Of the problems?

First scenario

There are scenarios for Egypt, which has a low or moderate population density, some of which are lofty fighting the sky of well-being and others plowing the land of lamentations for the country with any human population.

The first scenario was presented by the Egyptian President himself, last September, during the inauguration of the Egyptian-Japanese University, when he introduced his country to a comparison with Germany, which has remained for the past 25 years without a population increase.

Sisi said that Berlin did not need water treatment, a power station, or new infrastructure for the benefit of the population, and therefore the German government tended to spend on the welfare of its citizens, as it did not allocate investments from the budget to cover population growth.

Then he entered present-day Egypt in a comparison with itself 200 years ago, saying, "Every Egyptian used to have an acre from which he lived or worked ... and now (and now) it has 100 million in the same area ... an acre after what was for a person became for 10 individuals .. and thus it was It is natural for life to be cheap in the past ... and the value of the pound was also natural for it to be high. "

So, according to the presidential perspective, Egypt is overwhelmed with projects that try to cope with the huge population increase, which makes its citizens not feel the luxury that will be achieved by declining births, which means that the country awaits a prosperity of living by birth control.

The way in which Sisi deals with the population file can be understood through his statement that placed the increase in the number of citizens next to terrorism as a challenge to the country. Overpopulation as a challenge (as a challenge), given that the increase in population reduces (reduces) Egypt's chances that it can look forward (to advance). "

The decrease in population growth will lead to the welfare of citizens according to the presidential scenario (Al-Jazeera)

This presidential vision supports what was revealed by the Egyptian Deputy Minister of Health for Population Affairs, Tarek Tawfiq, of possibilities based on the results of the study of population predictions for Egypt "2020-2050".

He said, through an official statement, that the first possibility is not controlling the population increase and reaching the total fertility rate of 3.5 children per woman, according to which the population of Egypt will be about 183 million in 2050, and the percentage of the population in the workforce is about 60% and the total dependency ratio is about 0.68%. .

Tawfiq added that the second possibility expects the total fertility rate to remain stable at the current situation (3.07 children per woman), and then the population of Egypt will be about 160 million in 2050, and the percentage of population in the workforce is about 64% and the total dependency ratio is about 0.56%.

While the third possibility is expected to reach the total fertility rate to 2.4 children per woman, thus the population of Egypt will be about 152 million people in 2050, and the percentage of population in the workforce is about 64%, and the total dependency ratio is about 0.55%.

The Deputy Minister of Health pointed out to the expected increase in poverty rates in the case of uncontrolled population growth, so that more than 44 million people would be poor, compared to 33 million in the case of applying the National Population Strategy and reaching a total birth rate of 2.4 children per woman.

The second scenario

As for the economic expert, Dr. Abd al-Nabi Abdul-Muttalib, his vision appears to be different from the presidential scenario, as he ruled out that the standard of living of citizens would rise in the event of a decrease in the population, even to half the current figure, meaning that the Egyptians would not exceed 50 million people.

Excluding the luxury of living due to the demographic decline, Abdulmutallab built it on the assumption that the workforce will decline in many sectors due to population poverty, and at the forefront of those sectors will be agriculture, which is a basic pillar of the Egyptian economy and already suffers from a large shortage of manpower.

He also expected - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the Egyptian demand for goods and services will decrease, which will reduce the incentive for mass production for many producers, which will slow the rotation of the economy.

The economist pointed out his rejection of all theories that talk about population increase as an obstacle to development, and went on to say, "On the contrary, Egypt derives its economic importance from being a big market with more than 100 million consumers."

He added that the huge amount of consumers generates a great demand for goods and services, explaining that effective demand is the main driver of production, according to Keynes' theory of economics.

The problem in Egypt is not the increase in population but rather the density of the population per square kilometer and the lack of planning that has generated crowding and slums, according to Abdulmutallab, stressing the need to go towards increasing the populated area.

In general, the talk about the population decline in Egypt was considered a kind of fantasy and a kind of searching for a "peg" (Musabb) to comment on the causes of failure.

Political repression stops any economic progress, regardless of population density, according to Al-Jazeera observers

Third scenario

If the population of Egypt is fixed at 100 million without increasing or decreasing in the coming years, then the living conditions will remain as they are, according to the prediction of the former parliamentarian, Dr. Ezz El-Din Al-Koumi.

What will happen when the population stabilizes is the manifestation of the state’s administrative failure by the current system, according to Al-Kumi, who asked, “Where will the government come with new resources from which the living conditions of the 100 million people will improve in light of an economic system based on debt and suffers from a severe shortage of income from several sectors Like tourism? "

He added that the continuation of the repression and suppression of freedoms will not allow any improvement in living conditions even if the population decreases to any percentage the government seeks.

The former parliamentarian explained that the problem is not in the increase in population but in the theft of the capabilities of the people, citing countries that have made progress despite their human density, such as China and India, which have made the human being the center of development.

Regarding the repercussions of the demographic decline on the regional weight of Egypt, considering that it derives part of it through its human density, Al-Kumi stressed that matters deviated from the calculations of human numbers, and said that Cairo no longer has a regional weight in Africa since it abandoned its pioneering role in favor of several parties, chief among them Israel, Citing the Egyptian failure in the Renaissance Dam file.

He added that the decline of Egypt's regional role is also occurring in the Arab region, citing the disappearance of Cairo in the crises of Sudan and Libya, even though they are two border states.