Alexei Navalny changed the situation in Russia

Putin faces an unprecedented challenge due to the protests

• Alexei Navalny was arrested on his return to Russia.

  EPA

• Protests in support of the Russian opposition spread across the country.

  Reuters

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After a week of drama, the political situation in Russia is moving to a new, more radical phase.

The arrest of the opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, on January 17, who had just landed, in Moscow, after recovering in Germany from a poison attack;

With the spread of a video clip on YouTube, it reveals a huge palace that President Vladimir Putin allegedly built for himself, and its value is about $ 1.35 billion.

Down with Caesar

The protests that followed were the most widespread, in Russia, since the 1990s.

While Moscow was the focus of attention, the demonstrations were noteworthy for being patriotic, on a grand scale, with people openly defying government warnings, and thousands took to the streets, in 110 cities.

From Vladivostok in the far east, to Kaliningrad in the west, the crowds chanted: "We are the strength here," "Freedom for Navalny," and "Down with the tsar!"

In the city of Yakutsk, in the Siberian region, the demonstrators took to the streets in temperatures of 50 degrees below zero.

In his articles in the liberal Russian newspaper "Novaya Gazeta", the political editor, Kirill Martinov, praised what he saw as a movement in which Muscovites and residents of regional cities finally have a "common interest."

He also wrote: “When Moscow moves, other regions usually remain indifferent, and vice versa;

But not now, ”adding that people have made their voices heard not only for Navalny’s freedom, but because“ they see no other way to achieve justice in a country where there are no courts and no elections. ”

Navalny had called on Russians to take to the streets after he was sentenced to 30 days in prison, before the January 18 trial, at a hearing held at a police station, which the anti-corruption campaign declared illegal.

Following Navalny's recovery from a case of poisoning, investigative journalists said it was carried out by Russian intelligence, using nerve gas.

The authorities changed their approach by reopening a previous fraud case against him, claiming that he had violated the terms of his conditional release.

The European Court of Human Rights ruled, in 2017, that the case was arbitrary and unlawful.

Lawyer and activist Lyubov Sobol, one of Navalny's key allies, announced last week that more protests were planned, despite the arrest of about 4,000 participants in Saturday's protests.

Nowhere to retreat

Martynov, from Novaya Gazeta, warned that the confrontation might reach a point of no return, and that “society has no place to back away from since Navalny’s poisoning.” Itself is actually effective in the scenario of force ».

Rare courage

For years, the Russian president sought to portray Navalny as an unidentified person, refusing to use his name, and described his rival as an "unknown blogger."

The Kremlin’s violent response to the opposition leader’s return from abroad publicly showed the exact opposite.

And if Navalny was really "no one", then why did he detain his supporters who gathered at Vnukovo airport, to welcome him back home?

Why is his plane diverted to another airport, and then arrested upon entering, in front of television cameras?

The poisoning of Navalny and his subsequent return to Russia, in defiance of threats to his imprisonment, not only confirmed that he was Putin's most outspoken critic, but that he was also a political figure of remarkable courage and a global standing.

The opposition took the initiative, forcing the Kremlin to make a series of strategic mistakes, which only increased public anger among many Russians over rampant government corruption, lawlessness, deteriorating living standards, and a faltering economy hit hard by the Covid virus. -19 ».

Putin's popularity has reached 60%, and although he still enjoys relatively high support compared to other world leaders, he is at its lowest level since 2012. The Kremlin tried to reject what was stated in the video investigation about the luxurious Black Sea Palace, but the video achieved more than 90 million views. And he seriously damaged the public's view of him.

Over the past 20 years, Putin has built his reputation on the approach of the tough guy, who sees any sign of weakness as unforgivable.

So Navalny's immediate challenge puts the Russian leader in a difficult position.

If the Kremlin wants to avoid appearing weak, it will have no choice but to tighten its measures, which is likely to only deepen social and economic instability and radicalize the opposition, adding to tension.

Analysts agree that tightening the screws is the most likely response, although Russian media has warned of the excessive harsh measures against protesters.

Even the tabloid, Moskovsky Komsomolets, which is firmly supportive of the Kremlin, while denouncing Navalny, concluded that the excessive response would be a "dead end."

No to democracy

In the face of what is considered an existential challenge, the Kremlin may ultimately choose to abandon all aspects of democracy in order to retain power, regardless of costs in the global arena, and Russia has repeatedly shown that it does not care much about international oversight.

Commentators have been speculating, for months, that the authorities will risk their survival by resorting to the "Belarusian scenario" if things get out of control.

However, in some sense, there is not much difference whether Navalny is in a dungeon or at large;

He has already achieved his goal of publicly humiliating Putin, undermining his legitimacy, and sparking a new wave of protests.

By voluntarily assuming the role of a prisoner of conscience, he became an icon of the protest movement.

Some liberals may be tempted to view Navalny as more like Nelson Mandela or Vaclav Havel.

The real significance of the new movement, however, is that it has mobilized millions of conservative Russians, who may not be enthusiastic, especially Nafalni himself, but will never see Putin the same way again.

The poisoning of Navalny and his subsequent return to Russia, in defiance of threats to his imprisonment, not only confirmed that he was Putin's most outspoken critic, but that he was also a political figure of remarkable courage and international stature.

• People have made their voices heard not only for Navalny’s freedom, but because they see no other way to achieve justice in a country where there are no courts and no elections.

• Faced with what is considered an existential challenge, the Kremlin may ultimately choose to forgo all aspects of democracy in order to retain power, regardless of costs in the global arena.

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