'Flash report' Tezanos puts the CIS in the Catalan campaign with an unusual poll that predicts a great victory for Salvador Illa
Opinion: If Illa has Tezanos, separatism has TV3, by Iñaki Ellakuría
The Sociological Research Center (CIS) once again points to the PSC as the winner of the Catalan elections on February 14.
The survey, published yesterday in an extraordinary way - it is the first time in more than a decade that the CIS disseminates a poll of these characteristics in the middle of the campaign - gives the victory to the party of former Minister of Health Salvador Illa, with 23.7 % of the votes, almost four points more than ERC, which would obtain 19.9% .The
flash report
, as the
CIS itself, yields other relevant conclusions, such as the sharp collapse of
Citizens
, which would be overcome by
In Comú Podem
, while taking the
sorpasso
from
Vox
about him
PP
, which he placed last, with 5.8% of the votes.
The thrust of training
Santiago Abascal
It would place him 10 days before the elections even with the option of surpassing Ciudadanos, which only surpasses Vox by one point.
One last surprising note: the sinking of
JxCat
, the formation of
Carles puigdemont
, up to five points below ERC and almost 10 points below the PSC.
JxCat was the most supported pro-independence group in 2017, but the CIS poll is especially surprising in comparison with the rest of the studies published in recent days, as reflected in the graph, which neither grant that difference to the PSC, nor do they foresee a similar collapse of JxCat or Citizens, portend worse records for
common
and they place the PP ahead of Vox.
The last study of the center that directs
Jose Felix Tezanos
, former member of the
Federal Executive Commission
of the
PSOE
, throws an ideal scenario for the former minister Illa.
Not only does it place the PSC with 2.55 points above the average of the polls, but it also raises the estimate for the
common
, your insurance partner in a hypothetical government, similar to the coalition in force in
Moncloa
The poll also supports the figure of the PSC candidate.
While most studies have pointed to a slowdown in the
Illa effect
, the CIS consolidates its position.
If in the pre-election report - its publication in the week prior to the campaign was already controversial - it gave it 23.9%, now it only yields two tenths.
With this margin compared to ERC, the PSC could even clearly dominate in number of seats, avoiding the imbalance imposed by the Catalan electoral law between
Barcelona
, where the socialists would dominate, and the nationalist fiefdoms of
Lleida
Y
Gerona
With the result that the CIS throws, although it does not assign seats, the most likely government formation would be a tripartite, led by the PSC, with ERC and the
common
.
And the withdrawal of JxCat would be so forceful - although it gains two points compared to
Pre-election CIS
- that the repetition of the last one is arithmetically difficult
Govern
, with ERC, even with the support of the
CUP
at the investiture.
The anti-capitalist formation seems in a position to double its representation.
The poll reinforces the idea of a left tripartite and blinds the sovereignist path
The non-independence forces (PSC, En Comú Podem, PP, Ciudadanos and Vox) would get 55% of the votes compared to the 46% that would reach the independence bloc formed by Junts, ERC, CUP and PDeCAT, the formation founded by the former president
Artur Mas
and that has as a candidate
Àngels Chacón
, ex
councilwoman
with
Quim Torra
No one would come close to the record he marked this time
Inés Arrimadas
in 2017, when
obtained 36 deputies
with 25.3% of the votes.
Now, Ciudadanos would lose no less than 15%, according to the average of the polls, a bankruptcy from which the PSC and Vox clearly benefit, while the PP barely captures 2% more voters.
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