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Addis Ababa (dpa) - Actually, the military operation in Tigray in the north of Ethiopia should go quickly: Oust the People's Liberation Front of Tigray (TPLF), create order, restore the balance of power.
But Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has miscalculated.
The basic services of millions of people have collapsed and the population is not getting enough help - helpers are now warning of a hunger crisis.
And the conflict with the TPLF has turned into a complex war that has dragged neighbor Eritrea into it and threatens to destabilize the entire region.
That could be felt all the way to Europe.
«Many people are on the run.
Many things that once worked don't work, ”says Edward Brown, head of the World Vision aid organization in Ethiopia, describing the situation there.
In Tigray it was actually peaceful before and there was a brisk economic life.
“Then the events of November happened.
That was a shock to the system. "
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In November - Abiy sent troops to Tigray.
Since taking office in 2018, tensions had built up between his government and the TPLF.
Because the TPLF dominated politics in Ethiopia for almost 30 years and ruled with a hard hand until Abiy forced it out.
In the Tigray region, however, the party and former rebel group remained in power.
When she resisted the central government in September and held a regional election despite the corona pandemic, the situation came to a head.
"Almost the entire region needs food aid," says Kate White, Medical Emergency Aid Manager for Tigray from Doctors Without Borders.
Many people are on the run and have not been able to catch their crops.
Even those who still have a roof over their heads need help: because many still have no electricity, no access to running water, no access to their money because of closed banks and hardly any contact with the outside world because of blocked internet and telephone connections.
Not enough help is coming in right now to alleviate the needs of everyone, White says.
"If more help doesn't come soon, the situation will only get worse."
In addition to the residents, the refugees also suffer.
Before the conflict, there were four refugee camps in Tigray, in which around 96,000 million Eritreans lived.
When the fighting started, international aid workers had to leave Tigray, as the spokesman for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Germany, Chris Melzer, says.
The two camps in the south were then completely cut off from any aid for two months until food could be delivered again.
How the two northern camps are doing is not known.
The UN refugee agency has not yet been granted access, says Melzer.
"We don't know how people are doing."
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The government of Ethiopia and the United Nations had actually agreed in December on “unhindered, sustained and safe” access to those in need.
But reality looks different.
The UN emergency aid agency Ocha recently announced that although there has been progress in the clearance for the delivery of freight, the government has not yet given approval for the dispatch of critical staff.
At least 74 employees would be waiting for authorization.
When asked why the UNHCR has not yet had access to the northern refugee camps, Melzer says: "The government speaks of security problems."
In November Addis Ababa had declared the military offensive against the TPLF to be over - but the fighting continues.
And they have become more complex.
In addition to the national army and the TPLF, militias from the neighboring Amhara region, Eritrean soldiers and young Tigray fighters are now also involved, as Annette Weber from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) explains.
"We are far from the end of the conflict in Ethiopia."
But this threatens to destabilize the region.
On the one hand, neighboring Eritrea was drawn into the conflict with which Ethiopia once waged a bloody border war.
Eritrea is ruled by the autocratic President Isaias Afewerki.
The hard military service in the country has already displaced thousands, many of them to Germany.
The Eritrean soldiers are in Tigray at the invitation of the Ethiopian government, but are not controlled by it, warns Weber.
"It could even turn into an occupation."
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On the other hand, tensions with Sudan are escalating.
Despite its own miserable economic situation, the neighbor has taken in 60,000 refugees from Tigray.
The negotiations on the controversial GERD dam - the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - in Ethiopia were recently broken off again.
And a long-standing dispute over a border area has flared up again, the states have mobilized troops on both sides.
Weber warns that this escalation must be stopped before a war breaks out.
"Neither of the two can afford that."
This would also have an impact beyond the region.
Because Sudan and Ethiopia are key countries in Africa.
Ethiopia with its 112 million inhabitants and the seat of the African Union (AU) and Sudan at the crossroads between Africa and the Arab world have a great influence on important regional developments, from migration to Europe to the fight against terrorism.
But both states are unstable.
In addition to the conflict in Tigray, Abiy could get other ethnic tensions out of hand.
And after the coup in 2019, Sudan is still very fragile politically and economically.
The economic problems in the region, the war in Ethiopia and, in the end, possibly a triumphant President Isaias in Eritrea - "that should worry us Europeans enormously," says Weber.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210202-99-263896 / 2