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Tübingen / Linz (dpa / lsw) - The rise in unemployment and lower earned incomes due to the corona pandemic led to a significant increase in the shadow economy last year.
This is a result of the analysis published on Tuesday by the Tübingen Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Linz.
According to the analysis, the size of the shadow economy in 2020 was 339 billion euros (2019: 324 billion euros).
For the year 2021 336 billion euros are forecast.
The forecast for the current year is based on economic growth of 3.0 percent.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the annual average unemployment will remain at the level of 2020.
However, it is currently foreseeable that short-time working will solidify in 2021, it said.
According to the analysis, the ratio of the shadow economy to the official economy increased from 9.4 percent to 10.2 percent between 2019 and 2020.
The short-time working as a crisis measure and the temporary reduction in sales tax would have prevented an even greater increase in the shadow economy.
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In addition to the corona pandemic, according to the analysis, the extensive elimination of the solidarity surcharge will determine further developments in 2021. «This considerable tax relief lowers the incentive to do work in the black and, taken in isolation, lowers the predicted level of the shadow economy by almost 9 billion euros », It said in the press release.
Due to the global corona pandemic, the black economy calculated for 2020 has also increased in the other industrialized countries.
From 2019 to 2020, the black economy grew proportionally the most in the USA with a plus of 27 percent.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210202-99-271634 / 2