The US Congress has announced that the economy hit by the new coronavirus will return to pre-infection levels in the middle of the year, partly due to the spread of vaccines.
On the other hand, it will take three years for the number of employees to return to before the spread of the infection, and concerns about the so-called "recovery without employment" are likely to continue.
According to a new economic forecast released by the Congressional Budget Office on the 1st, the growth rate of GDP = gross domestic product, which indicates the economic scale, will recover to 4.6%.
This cancels last year's minus 3.5%, which was the lowest level in 74 years, and it is a form that almost V-shaped recovery and returns to the level before the spread of infection due to the spread of vaccines and large-scale economic measures. ..
Employment improvement is slow and concerns about "recovery without employment"
In contrast, employment is improving at a slower pace, with employment numbers expected to return to pre-infection levels in 2024, three years later, and unemployment in 2026, five years from now.
The spread of the new virus has hit service industries such as restaurants and hotels, and it is expected that these industries will continue to be cautious about increasing employee hiring for the time being.
In the United States, it has been pointed out that generous support for those who have lost their jobs, such as a large increase in unemployment insurance benefits, has discouraged them from looking for a job, and even if the economy recovers, employment will not return to normal. Concerns about "recovery without employment" are likely to smolder.