Russia: the standoff between the Kremlin and Alexeï Navalny continues before the judges
Alexei Navalny and his wife on their return to Russia shortly before his arrest at Mosocu airport on January 17, 2021. AP - Mstyslav Chernov
Text by: Daniel Vallot Follow |
Rusina Shikhatova
6 min
Less than three weeks after his return from Germany, and a few days after a new series of protests across Russia, the standoff between the Kremlin and the main opponent of Vladimir Putin is being played out this Tuesday in a Moscow courtroom.
Accused of having evaded his judicial control, the opponent risks two to three years in prison.
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Alexeï Navalny finds himself once again on the dock.
A habit for the opponent who has not ceased to be arrested, placed under house arrest and sentenced over the past ten years, but always to light sentences, or suspended.
This time, things could take a much more serious turn.
Accused of not having respected his judicial control (in
the Yves Rocher case
for which he was convicted in 2014 with his brother Oleg), he faces between two and three years in prison.
The prison authorities, responsible for the application of sentences in Russia, accuse him of not having complied with the summons that were sent to him in 2020, and in particular at the end of the year - while he was in Germany to be treated there after being the victim of poisoning in Novichok.
“Nothing is legal in this case,
strangles Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Anti-Corruption Foundation, the movement of Alexei Navalny.
There is no law to put him in detention, no law that would allow this suspended sentence to be changed to real punishment.
It was not legal to try him in a police station, to prevent him from seeing his lawyers… Absolutely everything in this case is illegal!
"
Judicial relentlessness
For Ivan Zhdanov, as for all supporters of Alexeï Navalny, he is in reality the victim of a double determination, political and judicial, intended to silence him.
Why ?
Formerly seen as a simple troublemaker without great importance, Alexeï Navalny would today be considered as a real threat by the authorities.
"
They know that they no longer have the massive support they say they have on television
," analyzes Ivan Zhdanov, one of the rare collaborators of Alexeï Navalny who has not yet been imprisoned or under house arrest.
And when they see tens of thousands of people on the streets, they understand that this myth is falling apart, that more and more people are joining the opposition. ”
Alexeï Navalny would therefore have become too dangerous for the Kremlin, which would have decided to get rid of him, either by killing him (as the opponent claims), or by driving him into exile, or by throwing him in prison.
But other reasons can be put forward to explain the Kremlin's stubbornness in dismissing the opponent.
For Alexander Baunov, of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, Alexeï Navalny would have crossed a red line by accusing Vladimir Putin of having ordered his poisoning last summer.
“
Vladimir Poutine had personally authorized the entourage of Alexeï Navalny to repatriate him to Germany so that he is treated.
In return, he expected Navalny to respect certain limits.
However, as soon as he was cured, he declared that it was Putin who had ordered his poisoning… He accused him, and it is perhaps for this reason that Putin is bitter against him!
"
Pressure from the streets ...
Faced with the fierceness of the judiciary which fell against him, Alexeï Navalny played the street card and
demonstrations.
With success, since at the call of the opponent, tens of thousands of people marched in more than a hundred Russian cities on two consecutive weekends.
An unprecedented mobilization that was followed and even preceded by unprecedented police repression as well.
Mass arrests among the demonstrators (more than 5,600 this Sunday according to the Russian NGO OVD-Info), searches, house arrest and sentences among the relatives and supporters of the opponent, fines imposed on social networks that would not withdraw the calls to demonstrate: the Russian authorities are doing everything to "nip in the bud" a protest movement that the opponent hopes to establish over time.
And the authorities' response bodes well for a court decision that is not very favorable to Alexeï Navalny, the judiciary in Russia almost systematically avoiding being at odds with the decisions of the political power.
... and sanctions
In his standoff with the Kremlin, Alexeï Navalny can also count on the support of Western countries - and of a new American administration which wants to be firmer towards Russia.
But in Moscow, the threat of new sanctions no longer seems to impress many people.
“
There are sanctions that are very destructive for a country's economy,”
explains Alexander Baunov.
Those which were taken for example against Iran, with a trade embargo on oil.
But nothing of the sort is currently being considered by Western countries.
These funds may well invent new targeted sanctions, which is not what can scare the Kremlin.
"
According to many observers, a single decision could make the Kremlin regret this relentlessness against Alexeï Navalny:
the suspension of Nord Stream 2
, the gas pipeline project in the Baltic Sea ... But this Monday, February 1, on the eve of this crucial appearance for the future of Alexei Navalny, Germany reiterated that it had no intention of giving up this project.
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