The repercussions of the escalation will harm Tehran's negotiating position

Iranian-European relations are headed for a downturn during the Biden era

• Biden .. openness to Iran, but with conditions.

  Archives

• Ballistic missiles are the subject of any new understanding between the Biden administration and Iran.

  Archives

• The French Foreign Minister increases pressure on Tehran.

  Archives

picture

Since the withdrawal of the outgoing US President Donald Trump's administration from the nuclear agreement on May 8, 2018, and then imposed sanctions on Iran beginning on August 7 of the same year, European countries have made unremitting efforts to save the nuclear agreement from collapse and maintain a certain level of relations with Iran, Although tension was a major feature of those relations, as a result of the continuous criticisms that the latter made to those countries for failing to take measures to contain the impact of the sanctions, by activating the "Instex" mechanism that the two sides reached to achieve this goal.

In fact, those countries sought to do so in order to avoid what they consider the "worst option", which is the collapse of the nuclear agreement, considering that this would impose, in their vision, dire consequences for the security and stability of the region, as soon as their repercussions would reach their lands, especially as they increase The possibility of a new war breaking out in a region full of factors of tension and tension, and it will contribute to the escalation of the crises imposed by the increasing number of refugees to it.

Those countries have already tried to mediate between Iran and the United States of America in order to reduce the intensity of the differences between the two parties, such as France, which sought to arrange a meeting between former US Presidents Donald Trump and Iranian Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2019, but This did not succeed in achieving significant results in this context, in light of the insistence of both parties to adhere to their positions and not make any prior concessions.

Tactical maneuvers

Iran, in turn, sought to invest these efforts not only to enhance its ability to deal with the repercussions of US sanctions, but also to expand the scope of differences between European countries and the United States, in a way that, according to its vision, could expand the margin of options and freedom of maneuver available to it, and thus support its position In the face of the "maximum pressure" policy adopted by the previous US administration.

Hence, Iran has been keen to direct continuous criticism against European policy, but without reaching a stage that may impose a strong crisis that cannot be contained in those relations, especially since that would have meant confronting a united Western bloc against it in a way that would have intensified international pressures against it. .

New stage

But with the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, winning the US presidential elections on November 3, 2020, and then arriving to the White House to assume office on January 20, 2021, it seemed that there was a new stage that would have an impact on European countries' relations, whether with Iran or with the new US administration Which can be dealt with in the following points:

1- Latent gaps

Although these countries expressed several reservations about the policy adopted by the Trump administration regarding the nuclear agreement, at the same time they did not overlook what might be called the "positive aspects" imposed by that policy, especially with regard to shedding light on the "loopholes." The dangerous implications of the agreement, which weakened its strength continuously and diminished its potential role in supporting security and stability in the region.

The most important thing revealed by that policy is that the restrictions on Iranian nuclear activities, the most dangerous of which are the so-called "sunset clause", are temporary, in a way that, after several years, will enable Iran to practice more and more dangerously at a later stage. The escalation with it prompted it to reveal its true intentions, especially with regard to the use of the agreement to lift the international sanctions that were imposed on it without being seriously prepared to deal with Western and Arab concerns about the repercussions of its nuclear program, which was evident in the escalatory measures it took in the post US sanctions, through which it is trying to return to pre-nuclear levels.

These steps have sparked sharp criticism from European countries, as was evident in the statements of the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, on January 19, in which he warned that "the nuclear agreement is at a dangerous juncture", in his comment on the establishment of Iran to raise the level of uranium enrichment to 20%.

This was also evident in the warning of the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, on the 16th of the same month, that Iran is building capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, referring to the latter's announcement of willingness to produce uranium, a step that European countries consider unnecessary in light of the so-called The "civilian objectives" of the Iranian nuclear program, which were reflected in the nuclear deal.

2- Absent files

In the past two years, European countries have paid attention to the danger of focusing the agreement with Iran on the technical aspects of the nuclear program only, without addressing other files that are no less important and dangerous, especially the ballistic missile program and the regional role.

In order to increase the cost of US punitive measures, Iran has rushed to conduct multiple experiments to develop the ballistic missile program, regardless of the criticism leveled at it for violating the agreement, and it has continued to provide its support to armed militias in crisis countries.

Here, those countries considered that ignoring these files imposed negative repercussions at a later stage, as Tehran relied on them to respond to US sanctions and direct public and direct threats to all parties, including European countries themselves whose interests may be affected in the event of any military escalation. In the region during the next stage.

3- The implications of the difference

These countries may try to reduce the differences in positions with the new US administration, especially with regard to Iran, as it will encourage any US initiative to open communication channels with the latter in order to test the extent of the ability to settle the outstanding differences between the two parties.

Here, those countries will be keen to promote that the arrival of a new American administration to the White House will contribute to the rapprochement of European and American policies during the next stage, in light of the potential changes that the new president, Joe Biden, may make.

The main objective of this, of course, is to send a message to Iran that it will not be able in the next stage to exploit any differences in positions between the two parties to expand the margin of options available to it and raise the level of escalation, similar to what was happening during the era of President Trump.

Potential path

In light of this, it may be said that the outstanding differences between Iran and European countries are no longer secondary, and their intensity may escalate during the next stage, in a manner that could lead to a decline in their level, especially in the event that the chances of reaching understandings between Iran and the Biden administration diminish. A possibility that cannot be excluded, in light of Iran's insistence on refusing to conduct any new negotiations, or expanding the current nuclear agreement to include the ballistic missile program and the regional role, which means that Iran will face, in this case, a Western bloc and stronger pressure, in the event that it does not contribute to The success of President Biden's possible approach.

• In the past two years, European countries have paid attention to the danger of focusing the agreement with Iran on the technical aspects of the nuclear program only, without addressing other files that are no less important and dangerous, especially the ballistic missile program and the regional role.

• Iran has been keen to direct continuous criticism against European policy, but without reaching a stage that may impose a strong crisis that cannot be contained in those relations, especially since that meant confronting a united Western bloc against it.

Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news