Paris (AFP)

The French economy experienced a historic recession in 2020, put to the ground by the Covid-19 epidemic and the forced halt of many activities during the year, even if the fall is a little less severe than expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP) plunged 8.3% in 2020, after growth of 1.5% in 2019, according to a first estimate published on Friday by INSEE.

This is a little better than the -9% that INSEE had anticipated so far, just like the Banque de France.

And much less bad than the -11% forecast by the government, even if the Minister of the Economy admitted that this forecast was prudent.

The economy has in fact withstood the second lockdown in November a little better than expected by most economists, with GDP down 1.3% in the fourth quarter, when the consensus of economists, including the Banque de France, fell. was rather around -4%.

"It is a surprise, whereas we had in the last quarter six weeks of confinement and three weeks of curfew," reacts Selin Ozyurt, economist at Euler Hermes, in an interview with AFP.

And this is due, according to her, "on the one hand to the resilience of private but above all public investment which notably supported construction, and on the other hand to the fact that the schools remained open, allowing parents to continue to to work".

Despite everything, France has suffered a recession not seen since World War II, even if the country is no exception, the epidemic having derailed all developed economies.

"The French economy has experienced a completely unprecedented shock, with a number of sectors of activity going into hibernation, and production and consumption being sealed off," Emmanuel told AFP. Jessua, economist at the Rexecode Institute.

Over the year as a whole, household consumption fell by 7.1% and production by 8.6%.

Investment fell 9.8%, while exports plunged 16.7% and imports 11.6%, during a crisis that severely disrupted trade.

- concerns for early 2021 -

These figures, however, mask a year "in accordion", according to Emmanuel Jessua, with an economy which has evolved according to the health restrictions imposed by the government.

The first confinement thus caused the GDP to fall by 5.9% in the first quarter, and again by 13.7% in the second.

Then the economy rebounded by 18.5% in the third quarter (a figure slightly revised downward by INSEE) in favor of deconfinement, before therefore falling back by 1.3% in the last quarter.

These global figures also hide the fact that the crisis was felt very differently depending on the sector of activity.

Certain branches of industry, or even construction, recovered rather well after the first confinement.

On the other hand, the aviation industry, and activities based on social interactions, such as accommodation and catering or the arts and entertainment, have suffered greatly, and are still suffering from the persistence of the epidemic.

In an attempt to contain the effects of the crisis on bankruptcies and employment, the government has implemented an arsenal of aid of more than 300 billion euros in 2020, putting to music the "whatever the cost "Respondent by the President of the Republic.

A mobilization that will continue this year, because despite the gradual arrival of vaccines, the worsening of the epidemic with the arrival of threatening variants should force the government to tighten the restrictions.

In this case, for the economy, "the stake will be the opening or not of schools", judge Selin Ozyurt.

And "if the first quarter were to experience a fall in GDP again, this would be particularly worrying in the perspective of a return to the pre-crisis level by the end of 2022", she judges.

"The first half of 2021 will still be a little weighed down by the likely tightening of health measures," said Emmanuel Jessua, who considers it unlikely that France will be able to achieve 6% growth, as the government plans.

© 2021 AFP