On its tenth anniversary ... this is what was achieved from the economic demands of the January Revolution in Egypt

In addition to freedom, the demand for improving economic conditions was present in the most prominent chant of the January 25, 2011 revolution: “Live, freedom, social justice.” After 10 years of the Egyptians ’revolution, the demand remained as it is limited to the chanting that no one can now appreciate. Just chanting it.

Matters did not stop at the point of stalemate on what was a decade ago. Rather, economic conditions worsened compared to the era of ousted President Hosni Mubarak, according to official statistics, despite the adoption by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of a huge number of projects that he described as development since he took over the rule of the country 8 years ago.

The contradiction between moving in the way of projects and increasing the suffering of citizens raises questions about the course of the January economic revolution goals, and the reasons that created new pain for the poor.

Mubarak's economy

The economic file was one of the worst that was managed by the regime of the late President Hosni Mubarak, and the trend towards selling companies and factories owned by the public sector was strongly attached to that era, in what was known as privatization.

According to official statistics in 2010, the growth rate reached about 5%, and the gross product reached 187.3 billion dollars, while the external debt was about 33.6 billion dollars, which is close to the value of the cash reserve at that time, and the domestic debt reached 888.7 billion pounds, to increase Public debt amounts to about 80% of GDP.

Despite the economic cohesion of the figures to some extent, citizens did not feel that cohesion in their normal lives, and according to official data, the percentage of Egyptians living below the poverty line has reached 25%.

In a 2012 Carnegie report on "Egypt's economy before the January revolution," the fruits of that growth did not infiltrate the lower-income groups. The average annual per capita GDP in 2010 was about two dollars at the prices of that time.

The growth rates also did not provide the required job opportunities, as the average unemployment rate reached about 12% from 2009 to 2016, and economists attributed this to the fact that growth was not associated with labor-intensive activities and did not coincide with structural changes in the labor market.

The rate of inflation rose to 10% in 2010, and a report by the Chamber of Food Industries of the Federation of Industries in December of the same year confirmed that the prices of basic commodities such as sugar, wheat and rice continued to rise.

According to observers, the economic expansion in Egypt came in favor of the rich, not the poor (Al-Jazeera)

after the Revolution

With a long course of political fluctuations in the country, which in turn affected the economic climate, Egypt, 10 years after the January Revolution, is suffering economically - according to experts - in a double digit compared to the Mubarak era.

This economic deterioration can be seen in the exacerbation of external debts, which reached 125 billion dollars, and internal debts, which amounted to more than 4 trillion Egyptian pounds, while growth rates recorded 3.5% in the year 2019-2020.

In the wake of the economic suffering, Egypt was forced in mid-2016 to enter into negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to obtain a loan of 12 billion dollars, and the Fund agreed to conditions that were considered unfair to the poor classes in Egypt, as they included liberalizing the local currency exchange rate and applying austerity policies, including raising Energy subsidies and government employment cuts.

It is noteworthy that the debts that express the tragedy of the Egyptian economist are matched by the effort by the Egyptian government to establish projects that officials say are the gateway to sustainable development.

Among those projects: the Suez Canal branching project, which cost 8 billion dollars, the new administrative capital, in which the cost of construction reached about 60 billion dollars, in addition to the national project for roads and bridges (bridges) with lengths of 7 thousand kilometers, and at a cost of 175 billion pounds (more than Over 11 billion dollars).

A study prepared by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in July 2018, entitled: “Is development in Egypt a mirage?”, Predicted that the Egyptian economy would not recover in the absence of any structural reforms of the economy, and in light of what it described as the widespread violations of human rights in the country.

Contradictory numbers

While privatization was the most prominent issue in Mubarak's economy, the post-revolution economy was the main feature of the army’s intervention in it in a manner that was considered by economic reports by international organizations impeding any effort to develop an effective market.

The army, through its various sectors, is participating in many civilian markets, such as construction, food production and energy, with the absence of any real competition between it and the private sector, as the former benefit from tax exemption and low-wage employment for recruits, giving them the advantage of obtaining public supplies.

Despite the economic suffering that many see, the International Monetary Fund expected a strong recovery of the Egyptian economy in 2021-2022, with the economic growth rate reaching 5.6% in 2024-2025.

According to international reports, human rights violations impeded development in Egypt (Al-Jazeera)

This contradiction between high growth rates and high poverty rates was justified by the Secretary of the Parliament's Plan and Budget Committee, Abdel Moneim Imam, with the problem of the decades-old inherited system of social justice and wealth distribution in Egypt.

Abdel Moneim Imam referred - in a press statement - to the economic decisions taken by the political leadership to consolidate the remarkable and exciting success of the state's policies that began 4 years ago through the comprehensive economic reform program, according to his description.

Despite global expectations of Egypt's economic recovery, Imam saw that there is a real crisis regarding how the Egyptian citizen feels the returns to economic progress, stressing the need to move to the real and partial economy by working to increase investment, and implementing small, micro and medium enterprises to provide job opportunities for middle and low-income groups.

The parliamentarian hoped that the new parliament would succeed in presenting the relevant legislation in this regard, so that the Egyptian citizen would feel the returns of economic progress that would benefit the state's development plans.

For the rich

For his part, Professor of Economics at the University of Oakland, Dr. Mustafa Shaheen, said that spending under the current system is linked to economic expansion for the benefit of the rich, not the poor.

He added - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the expansion in favor of the rich is through spending on projects that serve this category, such as major cities such as the New Alamein City and the Administrative Capital, and the roads connecting between them, which explains expectations of accelerated growth rates.

He explained that the projects that are being worked on are pouring into one sector, which is infrastructure, with steady spending on the health and education sectors, which led to a sharp deterioration in these two sectors.

In turn, the economic expert, Dr. Abd al-Nabi Abdul-Muttalib, said that the January revolution did not achieve its goals, whether at the political, economic or social level.

He explained - to Al-Jazeera Net - that the indicators of the Egyptian economy are declining, whether in growth rates, external debt, poverty rates or price structure, indicating that prices have increased by rates close to 200% for some basic commodities such as rice, sugar, oil, medicine and electrical appliances.

The prices of services such as electricity, water, communications and transportation increased by 50% to 200%.

Abdul-Muttalib said, "It is true that the Corona pandemic contributed to preventing the Egyptian economy from achieving a start in 2020, but a comparison of data for the period from 2005 to 2010 shows that its economic indicators were better than those of the period 2015-2020."

As for the projects that the government has implemented, which are supposed to be developmental, but have not cast a shadow over the rates of the economy, the economist emphasized that these projects employ temporary and unsustainable labor, and are also aimed at preparing the infrastructure to attract foreign investment and encourage local investment to expand.

He added that investment that creates permanent job opportunities and increases incomes is what reduces the number of the poor.